AMD LIVE EARNINGS | STOCK MARKET TALK

The Spaces opened on a broadly red session with QQQ down over 2% and SPX off ~1.3%, while oil rallied and defensives/staples showed strength. Hosts and guests debated drivers: rising geopolitical risk tied to Iran, recalibrated Fed cut expectations, and an AI trade losing momentum. A major thread covered crypto’s drawdown—Bitcoin printing fresh 52‑week lows, altcoins down 80–100%, and the “digital gold” narrative questioned—plus knock‑on risks (MicroStrategy, Tesla’s smaller BTC stake). Technically, participants framed the tape as range‑bound with repeated support tests (SPY 50‑day, QQQ 100‑day), distribution on float‑ups, and oversold single names primed for bounces but with weak follow‑through. Strategy emphasis shifted toward cash‑flow, low‑debt “boomer” names, AI infrastructure (networking/cabling), and energy’s relative undervaluation, while warning against high sales‑multiple software and misfit trading systems for the regime. Earnings focus centered on AMD and SMCI: AMD beat (revenue $10.3B; EPS $1.53), guided Q revenue ~$9.8B, posted strong data‑center revenue ($5.4B, +39% YoY) and ~55% non‑GAAP gross margin, yet shares whipsawed amid a high bar versus Nvidia and memory bottleneck talk. Additional prints (CMG, ENPH, TTWO, MDLZ) and an SLAB/M&A headline rounded out the session, with risk management anchored on weekly EMAs and upcoming mega‑cap reports.

Twitter Spaces Session Summary and Analysis

Participants and Roles

• Evan (Host; Stock Market News): Moderated the session, provided intraday market updates and coordinated earnings coverage.
• Mikey: Offered macro takes on semis and AI capital deployment; commented on Palantir, crypto, and market structure.
• Brian: Technical trader with macro awareness; discussed geopolitics (Iran), oversold conditions, crypto skepticism, and trading system discipline.
• Logical: Short-term technical trader; shared detailed crypto price action, risk/reward observations, and equity market caution.
• Stock Talk: Portfolio and trading strategy focus; emphasized stock-picking discipline, valuation, and weekly structure over daily noise; shared portfolio positioning and upcoming earnings focus.
• Wolfie: Day-trader/investor; advocated for “boring boomer” names, physical infrastructure for AI, energy valuation setup, and baskets in depressed software for potential M&A optionality.
• Sack Sniper: Provided options-market context, implied moves, and key watch items into earnings (AMD, SMCI).
• Blake (Portfolio Manager, RIA): Framed higher probabilities of downside based on rotational dynamics, technical levels, and macro context; shared cautious portfolio adjustments.
• Unnamed analyst (joined during AMD details): Broke down AMD’s segment results, guidance, and export-control inventory effects; flagged data center composition and industry supply constraints.

Market Context and Opening

• Broadly risk-off day: QQQ -2.1%, S&P 500 -1.3% into the close; most of the Magnificent 7 underperformed (Nvidia -4%, Microsoft -3%, Amazon ~-2.5%). Apple a bit green; energy and select pockets firm.
• Rare earths and related trades saw pullbacks intraday but remained green overall.
• Walmart joined the $1T market-cap club; multiple large caps hit all-time highs at some point intraday (Google, Exxon Mobil, Coca-Cola, J&J, Honeywell), though some faded.

Geopolitical Overhang and Oil

• Brian’s view: The market is at a culmination point of weeks of Iran-related tensions. Reports of a US-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz approached by Iranian boats and ongoing regional incidents heightened risk.
• Expectation: Markets near ATHs use such headline risk to de-risk; energy bid supports this ( Exxon Mobil +4%, USO up).
• Evan probed whether such geopolitics explain Nvidia’s underperformance; consensus: macro and headline-driven risk-off rather than name-specific catalysts.

AI Trade Fatigue and Palantir Nuance

• Mikey: Palantir’s headline beat masked a “black flag”—new customer signings down despite expanding revenue from existing customers. Signals AI enthusiasm may be cooling at the margin.
• Staples and defensives (PepsiCo, Walmart, Costco, Coca-Cola, Colgate) showed relative strength. Meta’s post-earnings gap largely retraced. Suggests rotation away from high-beta AI momentum.

Crypto: Digital Gold Thesis Under Scrutiny

• Brian: Bitcoin’s behavior contradicts the “digital gold” narrative; sitting near lows and failing to hedge fiat debasement concerns.
• MicroStrategy risk: Leverage to BTC could be existential on a sharp drawdown.
• Altcoins: Longstanding skepticism toward “shitcoins.” Former darlings (Polkadot, Polygon, Helium, Cardano) down 80–100% from peaks.
• Tesla’s BTC: ~11,509 BTC held end of last year; sold ~75% in 2022. Materiality to TSLA minimal at current valuations.
• Structural risk: With AI and quantum advances, pure-digital assets may face unforeseen security or integrity risks (speculative but noted as tail risk).

Crypto Technicals (Logical)

• BTC price action: Repeated attempts to reclaim near-term support (9/21 EMA) failed; stop losses triggered quickly (1–2 days), signaling persistent weakness.
• 69k “magnet”: Prior major level from 2021; heavy liquidity likely lower.
• Strategy: DCA acceptable for long-duration holders; for traders, falling knives and rapid failures argue caution.

Equity Market Technicals and Tone

• Logical: Many names below 200-day and major moving averages; persistent distribution. QQQ retested its 100-day for the fourth time in three months—repeated tests of support tend to eventually fail if leaders roll over.
• Brian: Bears have fired multiple shots (Oct 10, Nov 20, Dec 17, Jan 20, and today) without follow-through. Many names are deeply oversold (Snowflake, Reddit, Robinhood, CrowdStrike, DraftKings, UiPath, Roblox, SoFi, Microsoft), primed for countertrend bounces. The key is whether we bounce and roll over or break today’s lows tomorrow.
• Range dynamics: Market grinds higher on low-volume floats, then sharp red candles undo weeks of upside—indicative of distribution while broadly long positioning persists.
• Practical message: Reduce aggression with calls; volatility chop punishes premium. Prefer patience and selectivity until character shifts.

Institutions vs Retail (Eisman Angle)

• Mikey: Steve Eisman cautioned that dips are being bought by retail, not institutions. If institutional selling emerges, retail-supported levels could fail, causing carnage.

Stock Selection, Valuation Discipline, and Systems

• Stock Talk: This remains a bull market; breadth and sector rotation offer streams of opportunity. Many complaints reflect poor stock selection, not “bad markets.”
  • Avoid chasing 20–60x sales names; sentiment turns magnify drawdowns.
  • Favor reasonably priced names (1–2x sales, ~20–30x P/E) in strong sectors with strong charts.
  • Technical discipline: The daily 21 EMA on indices has faked out consistently; use weekly structure (e.g., 21-week EMA) for hedging/structure assessment.
  • Extended charts (up 200% in six months) tend to be both technically extended and fundamentally overvalued—expect volatility both ways.
  • Personal positioning: ~49–50% YTD, with 9 names up 50%+ YTD, large long exposure in options for core holdings, biggest position “AVNS” reporting soon; big cushion to absorb volatility.
• Brian: Many lacked methodology last year and were repeatedly bailed out by rising markets; now distribution reveals weaknesses. You must know why you own a stock (technical/fundamental/thematic), size correctly, and match systems to regime.
• Wolfie: Shift from “growth-at-any-cost” to “fairly valued” with free cash flow and low debt. Focus on physical infrastructure for AI (networking, cabling), bottlenecks/dislocations, and energy.

Sector Rotation: Physical Infrastructure and Energy Thesis (Wolfie)

• Dot-com analog: Just like the internet era required hard networking build-outs, AI compute requires fiber, test gear, cabling, and bandwidth.
• Examples: Cisco at 25-year highs; Viavi as a testing/optics beneficiary.
• Digital-to-physical transfer: From software momentum to industrial buildout.
• Energy valuations: Relative to S&P near multi-decade lows (back to ~1998). If multipolar geopolitics reduce “glut” dynamics, underpricing of energy is likely. Historical analogs show energy outperformance in the decade after tech bubbles.
• Software baskets: Depressed names trading at sub-2x price-to-sales with sticky customers could become M&A targets; basket approach spreads idiosyncratic risk.

Earnings Watch and Reactions (Pre-AMD)

• Key watches: AMD, SMCI, Chipotle (CMG), Enphase (ENPH), Mondelez (MDLZ), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Take-Two (TTWO).
• Notable prints:
  • Enphase: Double beat (revenue/EPS), stock up ~2% AH initially.
  • Take-Two: Revenue beat, EPS miss; GTA6 schedule unchanged; stock +5% AH.
  • Cirrus Logic: Beat both, stock +13% AH.
  • Chipotle: Slight beats but traffic declined; stock -10% AH (price increases likely offset traffic).
  • Mondelez: Beat revenue & EPS.
  • Lumentum: Beat; stock higher.
  • Silicon Labs: Rumor TI is in talks to acquire (Financial Times); stock ~+40% AH.

AMD Earnings Deep Dive

• Options setup (Sniper): Implied move 7.19% (±$17.11); heavy open interest (2.9M contracts). Expected: Revenue ~$9.67B, EPS ~$1.24.
• Results:
  • Revenue: $10.3B (vs $9.7B cons), +34% YoY.
  • EPS: $1.53 (vs $1.32 cons), +40% YoY.
  • Operating margin: ~28% (vs ~25.4% cons).
  • Guidance (Q): Revenue ~$9.8B (above ~$9.4B cons), ±$300M; explicitly includes ~$100M MI308 GPU sales to China.
• Segments (Unnamed analyst):
  • Data center: $5.4B (+39% YoY), strong—driven mainly by EPYC CPUs with some Instinct GPU contribution; client & gaming robust (+37–51% YoY); embedded weaker.
• Inventory/Export Controls:
  • Additional $40M inventory-related charge tied to export controls (full-year), offset by ~$360M reserve release (reflecting shipments to China). Implication: If this release pattern extends, Nvidia’s larger reserves ($4.15–$4.2B) could also be unwound over time.
• Supply-side constraints: Memory flagged as a bottleneck in AI infrastructure—commentary circulated from the Cisco AI conference indicating memory could remain tight into 2028.
• Strategic initiatives: AMD, Cisco, and Humane (Saudi-linked initiative) targeting ~1GW of AI infrastructure by 2030.
• Market reaction: Despite a headline double beat and slightly above guide, the stock initially faded (~-5% AH). Interpretation among speakers: The bar is very high vs Nvidia’s dominance; AMD’s share in data center AI GPUs remains low single-digit and breaking into tier-1 adoption remains elusive.

Earnings Season Trends (Blended through last Friday)

• EPS growth: ~10.9% blended (vs ~8.9% expected); if truncated to today’s data, ~13.4%.
• Sector drivers:
  • Technology: ~30% EPS growth (vs ~26.5% expected); ~20% revenue growth.
  • Communication Services: ~11.3% EPS growth (vs ~7.3% expected); ~9.5% revenue growth.
  • Financials: ~11.1% EPS growth (vs ~6.7% expected).
  • Laggards: Energy (~0.9% EPS vs ~1.7% expected), Utilities slight misses.
• Revenue growth broadly ahead (~7.7% vs ~7.3% expected). About one-third of market cap reported.

Levels, Structure, and Outlook

• Blake’s caution: Rotational dynamics (tech exhaustion, defensives bid) and repeated failures at round-number index thresholds suggest rising downside probabilities (5–10% plausible). Market likes to test incoming Fed chairs; midterm year patterns and normalization (not aggressive easing) temper risk appetite.
• Levels:
  • S&P 500: 50-day MA precisely defended intraday; risk rises if we lose that level decisively and weekly structure (9-week EMA) breaks.
  • NASDAQ/QQQ: Multiple retests of the 100-day; breaking below raises risk of deeper moves (call-outs included a watch near the 600-region conceptually).
• Stock Talk’s structural lens: Daily moving-average triggers on indices have produced repeated fake-outs; weekly 21-EMA is more reliable for risk control in this regime. Expect QQQ to be more volatile than SPY due to tech/software concentration.

Practical Guidance and Actionable Insights

• Positioning
  • Reduce aggressiveness with short-dated calls; vol chop is punitive.
  • Favor cash-flow, low-debt, fairly valued names; avoid high-multiple, sales-multiple-heavy stories in choppy tapes.
  • Consider “boomer” industrials and energy; multipolar geopolitics support re-rating over time.
  • For software, consider basket exposure to depressed, sticky-customer names near or below 2x P/S for eventual M&A optionality.
• Trading Systems
  • Match system to regime: In distribution/range markets, reversals and mean-reversion outpace breakout strategies.
  • Know why you’re in a stock (technical/fundamental/thematic), size properly, and avoid chasing extended moves.
• Crypto
  • DCA only if duration fits; avoid knife-catching until trend stabilizes; acknowledge that “digital gold” behavior has not materialized.
• Earnings
  • AMD’s solid top-line/guide met a high bar; watch follow-through on data center GPU adoption, memory availability, and further reserve releases industry-wide.
  • Monitor semis broadly (SMCI implied move ~10.9%), and mega-cap tech prints this week (Amazon, Google) for index direction.

Highlights and Key Takeaways

• Market tone: Distribution within a broader bull structure; defensives/energy bid while AI momentum cools.
• Crypto: Narrative stress; altcoin washouts; caution warranted.
• Discipline: Valuation and weekly structure trump daily noise; stock-picking quality differentiates outcomes.
• AMD: Operational strength and above-guide overshadowed by competitive context vs Nvidia; data center growth solid but share gains remain the question.
• Earnings season: Broadly better than expected; Tech/Comm Services driving upside; watch for character change if Friday “save” pattern breaks.