LIVE EARNINGS $AVGO $LULU | STOCK MARKET TALK

The Spaces covered a fast-moving market day into a heavy after-hours earnings slate and ahead of the NFP jobs report. Hosts and guests (including Evan, Options Mike, Logical/Wolf, Stock Sniper, Sam, Larry, Jaguar, and Stock Talk) discussed macro setup (NFP, bonds rally, breadth), sector rotation, and key prints from Broadcom, Lululemon, and DocuSign. Options Mike highlighted resilient indices, leadership in financials and semis, steady buy-the-dip behavior, and the importance of discipline in day trading. Logical detailed an overweight in homebuilders and biotech, with standout gains in NKTR and ABVX, and reiterated that housing is macro-driven while biotech is stock-picking alpha. Pre-earnings positioning emphasized AVGO’s AI read-through for semis. After hours, Broadcom beat and raised with AI revenue up 63% YoY; Lululemon cut guidance with notable U.S. weakness; DocuSign beat. Software remained fragile; DigitalOcean was a relative bright spot. Energy (OXY) and banks (KRE) had constructive technicals. The group also debated meme/speculation (SoundHound), Amazon’s potential breakout, use of prediction markets versus sportsbooks, and sports-betting equities (GENI, PENN, FUBO), with Jaguar flagging international operator SGHC.

Market recap and setup

• Hosts: Evan (primary host) and Amp (co-host). Panelists included Options Mike (Mike), Stock Sniper, Logical, Sam, Larry, Stock Talk (Dallas-based), and Jaguar.
• Tone: Constructively bullish. Multiple speakers highlighted persistent dip-buying, strong market-on-close buy imbalances, and healthy sector rotation.
• Macro calendar: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due Friday 8:30 a.m. ET was flagged as the week’s key data point. Consensus: unlikely to shake the market for more than a brief window unless a true outlier.
• White House event: A dinner with ~20 tech CEOs focused on expanding access to discounted AI tools for high school/college students. No expectation for market-moving policy headlines from this gathering.

Breadth, flows, and “market regime” observations

• Breadth/rotation: Multiple panelists (Options Mike, Logical, Larry, Sam) emphasized that leadership is broadening beyond the mega-caps. Google/Alphabet hit new all-time highs; financials (XLF) led with JPM at ATH; semis bounced; defensives and some cyclicals are being picked at; homebuilders and select biotechs noticeably strong.
• Flows: Two consecutive days of $3–3.5B MOC (market-on-close) buy imbalances highlighted ongoing institutional demand. The tape continues to squeeze shorts; buyers are stepping into shallow pullbacks.
• Positioning/sentiment: NAIM manager exposure slipped from ~92 to ~81 (still above long-term average ~75), implying managers became less extended and now have room to add risk. CNN Fear & Greed is no longer in “Greed.” Short of a black-swan shock, participants found it difficult to mount a high-conviction “top call.”
• Equal-weight signals: Larry noted equal-weight semiconductors (XSD) are within ~1–2% of ATHs, undercutting the narrative that “semis had uniformly bad earnings.” Similarly, XRT (equal-weight retail) is printing 52-week highs, which makes single-name retail underperformance (e.g., Lululemon) a company-specific story rather than a sector story.

Sector snapshots and notable themes

• Financials: XLF strong; JPM at ATH. View: when banks lead, broader market downside is limited near term.
• Bonds: Sharp rally on the day, contributing to a constructive risk environment.
• Semiconductors/AI: Broadcom (AVGO) seen as a key tell for AI accelerators and semis beta. Nvidia’s print was good (if not a “blowout”), while several other semis had mixed-to-weak guides; market response will hinge on AVGO’s AI traction and guide quality.
• Homebuilders/housing complex: Continues to work. Larry and Logical both flagged housing strength; NAIL (3x builders ETF) up on the day. Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Floor & Decor (FND), and other builders performed well. Macro sensitivity makes ETFs (ITB/XHB/NAIL) attractive for “theme-first” exposure.
• Software: Mixed at best. GitLab (GTLB) sold on decelerating base customer growth and in-line guide. Snowflake (SNOW) weak on a CFO transition (telegraphed last quarter) and sympathy weakness. DigitalOcean (DOCN) stood out as more resilient; several speakers framed it as a “mini-hyperscaler” with platform characteristics, potentially M&A-worthy (Cloudflare speculated by Sam). Overall, the panel discouraged forcing exposure in “binary” small/mid-cap software setups in front of prints.
• Energy: Under-owned, early-stage rotation potential flagged. Larry likes OXY (pullback to confluence near 200-day) and pointed to Valero (VLO) as a recent example of downtrend-breakout-retest-hold-then-chase. If new-lows do not expand in a bullish regime, energy could see a 10–20% catch-up without needing to become “new leadership.” KRE/KBE (banks) also look technically constructive.
• Retail/discretionary: The group is bifurcated. On one hand, XRT strong; names like AEO and GPS saw sentiment shifts from campaigns/collabs. On the other, Lululemon’s guide disappointed (see earnings section). Amazon (AMZN) consolidating for 2–3 months and pressing against a downtrend with a potential air pocket to ATHs—several panelists see it as a logical next baton-pass in discretionary if it confirms a breakout.

Trading style debate: day trading vs. swing

• Options Mike: Confident that disciplined day trading can be sustainably profitable. Keys: strict risk rules, fast loss-cutting (don’t turn a 15–20 minute scalp into a $1–$2/share ride down), take “a piece of the move,” and re-load on renewed momentum. He separates a day-trading account (kept at a set balance; skims gains) from a swing/investing account (longer-dated options and stock—heavy in AMZN; also holds AAPL, SPY, QQQ, SNOW, IBIT). Many traders fail due to holding losers and selling winners too quickly.
• Evan/Amp: Interested in revisiting the debate later with Stock Talk to weigh relative efficiency vs. swing trading.

Individual stock and setup highlights (pre-close)

• Mega-cap tech:
  • Alphabet/Google: New ATH; extended near term; not chased by Options Mike.
  • Apple (AAPL): Running into next week’s iPhone event; intraday push toward 240; host Evan was managing short-dated calls and rolled up to 240s.
  • Amazon (AMZN): Pressing up into downtrend resistance (rough 215–235 consolidation); potential breakout toward 242 ATH if retail/discretionary bid persists; thematic tailwinds from AWS + Anthropic build-out chatter in sell-side notes.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Consolidating after downtrend break; any uptick could target mid-350s area (handle with caution around resistance).
  • Microsoft/Meta not deeply discussed beyond breadth and sympathy dynamics.
• Semis and hardware:
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Major market mover; see after-hours section for results.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Good quarter; semis broadly watching AVGO for near-term direction.
  • ARM, MRVL, and others were noted by Sam as swinging with AVGO.
• Retail/discretionary and consumer:
  • Lululemon (LULU): Setup into earnings resembled prior selloffs; a “not as bad as feared” upside chase was possible if they stuck the landing. Post-close: they didn’t (see below).
  • AEO (American Eagle): Panelists trading it as a D/GEN turnaround; one participant exited at ~6 to bank a speculative win.
  • ULTA, DECK, CROX: Referenced as case studies for big drawdowns followed by sharp mean-reversion if fundamentals stabilize and sentiment flips.
  • UNH, MET: “Boring” setups flagged by Wolfie as quietly constructive; MET sat near a confluence of MAs and downtrend resistance with breakout potential.
  • SoundHound (SOUN): Spec chatter it could be mentioned at the Apple event (voice AI workflow integrations), not an acquisition. Substantial short-dated call premium bought. Skeptics on the “real-business” question; still a tradable narrative in this market.
• Cybersecurity and infra:
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD): Third test of 200-day; a hold opens ~7% upside for a trend retest; classic moving-average retest setup.
• Biotech:
  • Logical’s book: Heavy in NKTR (Nektar Therapeutics) and ABVX (Abivax). NKTR +26% on the day after Sanofi’s competitor trial missed primary endpoint, removing a bear overhang. ABVX rerated massively after data; M&A backdrop supportive (first-half ’24 biotech M&A strongest in 8 years). XBI was red; stock picking required in bios.
• Housing:
  • Logical overweight; BLDR, FND, and builders broadly higher; NAIL up, reflecting macro sensitivity and theme strength.
• Crypto proxies:
  • Stock Sniper: Building an Ethereum exposure “basket” via a mix of on-chain and proxies/treasuries. He scaled into “BMNR” (as transcribed) in the low-40s as a chosen ETH-treasury proxy (note: ticker as heard; likely a mis-transcription). Keeps crypto allocation near 10% of total assets; wants diversification across vehicles after having done a similar basket approach for Bitcoin (BTC, MSTR, GBTC).

After-hours earnings: key moves and takeaways

• Lululemon (LULU):
  • Initial reaction: Down ~12%.
  • Results/guidance: EPS beat (~$2.20 vs. ~$1.94 expected), but revenue slightly below; forward revenue guide $2.47–$2.50B vs. ~$2.57B expected; full-year GAAP EPS cut to $12.77–$12.97 from $14.58–$14.78. Management acknowledged disappointment in U.S. performance. Panel takeaway: Confirms a company-specific issue; supports view that the athleisure category is commoditizing and LULU’s competitive advantage/moat has eroded—especially contrasted with XRT’s strength.
• DocuSign (DOCU):
  • Up ~10%.
  • Headline: Modest revenue/EPS beat ($800.6M vs. $780.6M; $0.92 vs. $0.85). Panel skepticism persists about defensibility (“virtual signatures are commoditized”), but stickiness remains due to workflow integration, annual contracts, and migration friction.
• Braze (BRZE):
  • Up ~9% after-hours (per Sam).
  • Context: Technicals looked like a bear-flag pre-print; strength surprised some, but software action remains uneven.
• Costco (monthly sales):
  • August sales released; typically low price impact; no notable dislocations reported.
• Broadcom (AVGO):
  • Headline: Double beat (revenue ~$15.95–$16.0B vs. ~$15.9B; EPS beat). FYQ4 revenue guide ~$17.4B vs. ~$17.0B expected; AI revenue $5.2B, +63% YoY.
  • Price: Shares turned green post-print, up ~2–2.5% initially.
  • Implications: Market saw it as a constructive AI readthrough across semis; as a top-6/7 weight in QQQ and major SPX constituent, AVGO’s solid guide reduces near-term air pockets for the group. Panel emphasized: if AVGO had missed/soft-guided, semis likely would’ve been hit broadly even if SPX held.

Deep dive: “Sell-side research as a catalyst” (Stock Talk)

• Framework: Outside of earnings, quality analyst reports are among the most powerful price catalysts for mid-caps in particular. For large caps (>$100B), transparency and data-rich coverage reduce surprise magnitude; for mid-caps, well-regarded initiations/upgrades (BofA, JPM, Raymond James, Evercore, Jefferies in biotech) can trigger multi-month re-ratings.
• Quality over quantity: Tier-1 shops issue far fewer, more impactful calls; “spray-and-pray” research (e.g., mass-output small shops) carries low signal and is often ignored.
• Biotech: Jefferies/Evercore have domain experts; a pre-market note can flip a stock from red to +15% if the analysis reframes efficacy or market size correctly.
• Why it works: Information asymmetry is higher in mid-caps; shops conduct management checks, site visits, and proprietary surveys that don’t surface in public LLMs or casual scrapes. 2024 example: Morgan Stanley consistently nailed major themes (semi pullbacks, rate-sensitive trades) early.
• Practical: Pair fundamentals/technicals with an active tracker of influential shops by sector; respect price confirmation, but don’t dismiss sell-side as “always late.”

Sports, betting markets, and related equities

• NFL season kickoff: Cowboys vs. Eagles dominated banter. Prediction markets (Robinhood) discussed as tradeable, in/out vehicles vs. traditional books with lines.
• Fantasy football: Panelists shared experiences (auction draft mechanics).
• FanDuel vs. DraftKings: Jaguar argued FanDuel innovates more (SGP/SGP+ first movers; new head-to-head parlays), retains higher hold and better EBITDA margins with fewer promos, and often leads features that DK later copies.
• Jaguar’s pick: Super Group (SGHC). International sportsbook focus (Europe/Africa underserved markets), limited overlap with DKNG; suggested as a watchlist add.
• Sports/media plays watched: PENN (200-day reclaim, constructive pullback to 9-DMA), Genius Sports (GENI) clearing 13.50 resistance from a 2021 gap zone, FUBO constructive. Physical casinos (WYNN, MGM) also setting up well technically.

Notable single-name callouts and views

• Walmart (WMT): Gap-fill continuation; Options Mike held calls.
• Meta (META): Headachey open, fade; not the day’s focus.
• Coinbase (COIN) and China ADRs: Bounced intraday; not a core theme today.
• HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise): Stock Talk highlighted a strong quarter (9.14B rev, +18% YoY; $0.44 vs. $0.39 EPS), sub-1x sales and ~12x PE, Juniper acquisition synergy starting; thesis for rerating to ~$30+ as growth sustains; lower beta, grinder profile.
• SoundHound (SOUN): Spec bet on Apple-adjacent voice AI integrations; heavy short-dated call buying. Business model skepticism remains, but “dream-selling” can be a trade in this tape.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Three-day 200-DMA test; long trigger if it holds with 6–7% upside to trend.
• MetLife (MET): Boring but coiled near multiple MAs/downtrend resistance; potential breakout candidate.
• OXY and VLO (Energy): OXY hammering near 200-DMA confluence; VLO cited as analogous breakout-retest-hold example.
• DigitalOcean (DOCN): Differentiated from “software” as a platform/mini-hyperscaler; above key MAs; M&A optionality; not a large position but held.

Risk management and tactics

• Options Mike: Emphasized discipline: cut losers fast, don’t “average into” a day trade gone wrong, accept taking a slice of the move, and re-enter when momentum re-emerges. He keeps separate accounts to avoid style drift.
• Larry: Prefers ETFs to minimize single-name idiosyncratic risk within a theme (e.g., XHB/ITB/NAIL for housing). Uses “market regime” cues (breadth, RSI, percent above 200-DMA) to size and time risk (e.g., SSO in risk-on regimes). Moving averages matter insofar as price behavior changes around them.
• Sam: Avoids binary software setups into earnings; looks for asymmetric risk/reward where sector headwinds won’t overwhelm stock-specific drivers. Watches AI/semi guide cadence closely (accelerators revenue at AVGO, etc.).

Key takeaways and near-term watch items

• Big picture: The path of least resistance remains higher barring a shock. Breadth is improving; dip-buys continue; rotations are healthy. Nonfarm Payrolls unlikely to derail the tape beyond a short window.
• Semis: AVGO’s good guide and strong AI revenue growth reinforce the AI-capex cycle narrative; semis likely see positive sympathy unless guidance details fade on the call.
• Retail bifurcation: LULU’s guide reset looks idiosyncratic vs. XRT strength. If LULU stabilizes around post-gap levels and narrows the downside guide in coming quarters, a mean-reversion trade could emerge—but for now, the report validates moat concerns and U.S. softness.
• Energy: Early rotation signs. OXY/VLO setups worth monitoring; modest allocation can improve diversification given S&P’s low energy weight (~3%).
• Discretionary baton-pass: AMZN’s consolidation and proximity to ATHs make it a logical next leader if the group continues to broaden. Watch for clean break and hold above the recent downtrend.
• Software selectivity: Favor platform names (e.g., DOCN) or those with clear catalysts. Avoid “binary” into-print unless position sizing and risk controls are strict.

Quick attribution map

• Evan (host): Guided topics; managed AAPL calls; highlighted AVGO weight in QQQ and macro docket; balanced discussion across sectors.
• Amp (co-host): Sports/prediction markets angle; closing logistics.
• Options Mike: Day-trading discipline; tactical longs in AMZN/WMT; macro/breadth read; financials strength; bonds rally; caution on software into prints; semis sensitivity to AVGO.
• Stock Sniper: Shorted AAPL (won a trading competition); building an ETH basket with a treasury-proxy component; added to “BMNR” (as heard) in the low-40s; scaled KRATOS (ticker unclear in transcript) on weakness.
• Logical: Biotech stock-picker (NKTR, ABVX) and housing overweight; stressed XBI-red vs. stock-picking alpha; expects continued biotech M&A tailwind.
• Sam: Semi/AI expectations (AVGO watch: accelerators revenue, guide, AI reacceleration); NAIM positioning context; software lens on GTLB, DOCN, SNOW; sees difficulty in being bearish absent clear negative catalysts.
• Larry: Top-down, regime-based approach; prefers thematic ETFs (XHB/ITB/NAIL); flagged energy and banks; noted XSD/XRT signals; cautioned against anecdotal retail narratives vs. equal-weight evidence.
• Stock Talk: Deep dive on sell-side research as price catalyst (especially mid-caps, biotech); pitched HPE rerating; sports-media basket (PENN/GENI/FUBO) constructive.
• Jaguar: FanDuel vs. DraftKings operational/feature contrast; introduced SGHC (Super Group) as an international sportsbook watch.

Notable quotes (paraphrased)

• Options Mike: “You can day trade profitably if you’re disciplined. Cut losers fast; don’t try to turn 15-minute scalps into overnight bagholds.”
• Larry: “If the theme is your bet, eliminate single-name blow-up risk—use ETFs. XRT and XSD price action show the sector is fine even if some constituents stumble.”
• Stock Talk: “Outside of earnings, top-tier sell-side reports are the most powerful catalysts in mid-caps. In 2024, Morgan Stanley nailed macro themes early.”
• Wolfie (trader): “Boring names like MET can be coiled springs; CRWD’s 200-DMA retest offers a clean technical trigger. You don’t have to be giga-bullish—just don’t fight the tape.”

Final checklist for tomorrow

• NFP at 8:30 a.m. ET: Watch initial reaction; expect buy-the-dip mentality unless a shock.
• Semis/AI: AVGO call commentary on accelerators and AI infra demand; sympathy moves in MRVL, NVDA, ARM, etc.
• Retail complex: LULU reaction path—does it stabilize near the gap or see follow-through selling? Contrast with XRT strength.
• Energy/Financials: Look for confirmation of rotation (OXY hammer follow-through; KRE/KBE breakouts).
• Mega-cap leadership handoff: Can AMZN resolve higher and join AAPL/GOOGL as fresh leaders?