Bitcoin SpeakEasy: Bull Market

The Spaces gathered Joe (host, GoMining), Shafu, Value Yoshi, and Faku (GoMining Institutional) to dissect the ongoing Bitcoin bull market, institutional flows, and Bitcoin-native assets. They framed the latest inflation print as further validation of Bitcoin’s role as a superior store of value, with Value Yoshi’s purchasing power analogy resonating. For newcomers, both Shafu and Value Yoshi favored high-conviction, aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin over speculative alt plays, arguing old-holder rotation and institutional demand will dampen deep drawdowns and blur the classic four-year cycle. They contrasted ordinals (clear product–market fit for collectibles on Bitcoin) with runes (fee windfall for miners but poor user outcomes), and noted promising Bitcoin L2 directions (e.g., Spark) that use native BTC. On altcoins, only a handful of real, revenue-backed products were highlighted, while most tokens likely trend to zero. Faku detailed robust ETF-driven demand, rising corporate treasuries in BTC, improved liquidity (e.g., Galaxy’s 80k BTC sale with minimal impact), and a greener, grid-friendly mining narrative. GoMining announced a 24h 5% discount for digital miners and shared that its first Launchpad project (Big Layer) sold out, with plans to expand access, including for U.S. users.

Bitcoin Bull Market, Institutional Flows, and Builder/Community Dynamics

Speakers and roles (as referenced in the session)

• Host (GoMining): ran the session, provided GoMining announcements and questions; led the Launchpad update.
• “Shafu” (guest; long-term BTC investor/advocate): argued for aggressive BTC allocation, cycle structure changes, Ordinals > Runes, and quality-over-hype in altcoin projects.
• “Value Yoshi” (guest; host of The Bitcoin Show): emphasized purchasing-power framing for newcomers, conviction-based BTC allocation, skepticism on Runes, and expectations for an exponential leg up.
• Faku (Managing Director, GoMining Institutional): provided institutional and mining market color (ETF flows, treasuries, ESG/energy), and observations on liquidity and corporate behavior.

Note: Several participants appeared under pseudonyms/handles rather than full legal names.

Market backdrop and inflation print: why participants remain strongly bullish

• Inflation data: The panel framed the latest inflation print as further validation of the core BTC thesis. In their view, higher or sticky inflation pushes more people to seek hard, non-inflationary assets, with institutions steadily recognizing Bitcoin’s 10–15 year outperformance versus other assets.
• Purchasing-power framing (Value Yoshi): Practical analogy for newcomers—$1,000 in fiat a decade ago buys far less today; the same nominal amount in BTC terms has dramatically increased purchasing power. This helps “normies” internalize the inflation hedge narrative.
• Institutional recognition: The conversation underscored that mainstream asset managers now recommend explicit allocations (1–5% in many notes; some figures cited even higher), reinforcing a structural bid for BTC.

Strategy for newcomers and portfolio stance

• Aggressive vs conservative posture:
  • Shafu and Value Yoshi argued this is not the time to be conservative. They advocate meaningful BTC allocation, citing a “perpetual bid” from institutions and corporate treasuries, shrinking miner influence post-halving, and the scarcity/interest imbalance.
  • Quoted ethos: “You don’t have to put all your money in bitcoin, just the money you want to keep.”
• DCA and sizing:
  • DCA remains valid, especially for retail; rule-of-thumb suggested by Shafu: allocate ~10% of monthly salary to BTC consistently.
  • Both guests personally keep the majority of their investable assets in BTC, using other trading activities (stocks/alt trades) only to accumulate more BTC.
• Behavioral pitfalls to avoid:
  • New entrants often get impatient, chase low-cap altcoins/meme launches on platforms with high rug risk, and conflate those losses with “crypto” broadly. Panel emphasized patience, conviction, and learning curve—“everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve” (i.e., experience teaches risk discipline).

Bitcoin versus altcoins: where value accrues and what likely goes to zero

• Quality alt projects do exist, but are rare:
  • Examples the panel highlighted as “value-accruing” due to real products and revenue flywheels (buybacks, user-aligned incentives): Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, Athena (stablecoin exposure), Chainlink. They also noted an institutional bid for Ethereum as programmable money, and continuing interest in Solana.
• Most tokens trend to zero:
  • Tools/infrastructure tokens without necessity for a separate token and proliferation of undifferentiated L1s are expected to be structurally weak. Expect BTC dominance to keep rising even if ETH/SOL do well, as the long tail decays.

Ordinals vs Runes, and the role of Bitcoin L2s

• Ordinals (pro):
  • Strong product–market fit for immutable collectibles/high-value data. The Bitcoin base layer’s censorship resistance and permanence are advantageous for art and high-value digital assets. As prices rise, these assets tend to attract wealthier collectors rather than short-term flippers.
• Runes (con):
  • Multiple panelists (including an early Runes bull turned skeptic) now view Runes as lacking clear utility. They argue users did poorly while miners captured outsized fees during initial mania, and that without robust on-chain programmability and broad exchange support, Runes’ rationale is weak.
• Cross-chain art outlook:
  • Focus should be on making great art/projects regardless of chain. That said, Bitcoin is seen as the best long-term medium for high-value, immutable assets.
• Institutions and NFTs:
  • Institutional uptake of top ETH NFTs (e.g., Punks) is underway; panel expects Ordinals to follow over time as custody, collateral frameworks, and understanding mature.
• Bitcoin L2s the panel finds promising:
  • Preference for L2s that denominate activities in native BTC rather than a separate gas token. “Lightspark” was cited as an example of credible team and design (database-like trading layer with BTC denomination, more decentralized than a centralized exchange). Lending/borrowing infra on BTC is a key need.

Community, tokenomics, and incentive alignment

• Community is powerful but often misused:
  • Value Yoshi: Community is overrated in practice today (poor incentive alignment), but massively underrated in potential if incentives are designed well. Too many projects rely on unpaid community marketing without creating real economic alignment.
• What’s working:
  • Shafu emphasized projects reinvesting revenue into their token/product/community (buybacks, growth, people) as a strong signal. Communities increasingly perform serious due diligence and coalesce around genuine value rather than pure memes.
  • Not every app needs a token; if a token exists, there should be a clear flywheel and value accrual loop.

Cycle structure, Q4 patterns, and forward outlook

• Cycle regime change:
  • The panel expects a departure from “classic” four-year cycles. Reasons: structural/perpetual institutional bid (corporates, ETFs, treasuries) and diminishing miner impact on supply post-halving. Anticipate shallower drawdowns (40–60% vs historic 80–90%), and support from rate-cut regimes for risk assets.
• Where we are now:
  • Sentiment: “Slow burn” so far, not yet at euphoria. Value Yoshi expects an exponential leg higher within this cycle and floated a 300–500k BTC target as plausible. Shafu agreed the uptrend could persist with milder retraces.
• Ecosystem needs:
  • On Bitcoin: attract more builders without foundation subsidies; stand up lending/borrowing and custody for institutions; keep weekly ecosystem activity high to avoid dead periods.

Institutional flows, liquidity, and mining narrative

• ETFs and asset managers:
  • Faku: Spot BTC ETF (e.g., BlackRock’s IBIT) success has catalyzed institutional adoption. Allocations now commonly recommended by large managers (1–5%+), though much activity is still client-initiated; more upside remains when advisors proactively promote.
• Corporate treasuries and funds:
  • Growth in companies adding BTC to balance sheets. Crypto-native funds also building BTC reserves rather than only market-neutral strategies; separately managed accounts for directional BTC are growing.
• Liquidity resilience example:
  • A recent multi-day sale of roughly 80,000 BTC (~$9B, executed by Galaxy for an early holder) purportedly had minimal market impact and was quickly absorbed—seen as a testament to improved market depth.
• Mining and ESG narrative improving:

  • 50% of Bitcoin mining power now estimated renewable (Cambridge). Flexible load of BTC mining supports grids (curtailment during peak demand) and harnesses stranded/excess energy—reasons for Texas popularity.

Crypto-native firms holding BTC treasuries

• Adoption trend:
  • The panel sees more crypto-native firms and DAOs considering BTC treasuries alongside native tokens to avoid perpetual token sell pressure and to stabilize operations.
  • Example: Tether—BTC mining investments and significant BTC holdings were cited as a template. Expect a broader move toward split reserves (e.g., share between native token and BTC).

GoMining announcements and program updates

• Limited-time offer (live-only):
  • For 24 hours from the session: 5% discount on GoMining “digital miners” purchased via the link in the host’s Twitter bio; use code “shut full No. 5”.
• GoMining Launchpad:
  • First project (“Big Layer”) sold out within days. Next projects are in the works, with plans to broaden eligibility to U.S. participants via compliance expansion.

Risks, caveats, and operational needs highlighted

• Newcomer risks: degen traps on low-cap launches; learning curve and greed often drive early losses—reinforces the case for simple, consistent BTC accumulation and due diligence.
• Custody and collateral: Institutional participation in Ordinals/NFTs hinges on professional custody solutions and the ability to treat such assets as collateral.
• Token necessity: Many tools/infrastructure don’t need separate tokens; projects launching unnecessary tokens likely won’t accrue value.

Memorable lines and mental models

• “Limited supply, unlimited interest.”
• “You don’t have to put all your money in bitcoin, just the money you want to keep.”
• “Everybody buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve.”
• “Perpetual bid” from institutions and corporates supports a regime of milder drawdowns.

Closing notes from guests

• Action bias: “Gamble and buy Bitcoin” (shorthand for conviction-based accumulation rather than overtrading alt speculation).
• Supply shock on the horizon: Some governments have passed bills signaling potential BTC strategic reserves; panel believes actual buying has barely started, setting up future supply tightness.