THE FINANCE SHOW 🚨

The Spaces opens with music and nostalgia before shifting into a wide-ranging discussion that connects culture, media, and markets. Participants reflect on post‑9/11 patriotism, the decline of civics, and the evolution from centralized media narratives to today’s algorithmic, always‑on attention economy. The core of the session focuses on crypto market discipline in a risk‑off environment: working productively through the bear, maintaining dry powder, and avoiding time sinks and drama. Blake Cooper offers a macro thesis that Bitcoin is a leading indicator of liquidity and risk appetite, cautioning that no sustained bull is likely until BTC holds above six figures, while rate cuts and QE often coincide with recessions. The group dissects ETF incentives (AUM and fees), institutional focus on tokenization, market‑maker anomalies, and MicroStrategy’s drawdown dynamics. They debate Michael Saylor’s leverage ethos, examine Bitcoin priced in gold, and emphasize profit‑taking discipline (80%‑to‑plan) over round‑number targets. Community segments include defense of Doginal Dogs, pragmatic advice on capital preservation, and reminders not to borrow conviction. The Spaces closes with renewed focus on personal agency, balanced life, and steady DCA strategies amid volatility.

Twitter Spaces Session Notes: Music, Patriotism, Attention, and Crypto Markets

Opening vibe: impromptu covers, nostalgia, and identifying “IZ”

• Multiple participants opened with song snippets:
  • Damian Marley’s Welcome to Jamrock (“out in the street, they call it murder/mayhem”).
  • Major Lazer & DJ Snake feat. MØ’s Lean On.
  • Somewhere Over the Rainbow (Israel “IZ” Kamakawiwo’ole), which sparked banter to recall the artist’s name and early YouTube memories.
  • Closed with Bob Marley’s Redemption Song.
• Light reminiscence about first YouTube videos, time passing (e.g., Day ‘n’ Nite by Kid Cudi being “18 years ago”), nieces/nephews, and aging.

Patriotism, school rituals, and the 9/11 inflection

• Host (Shibo) and others reflected on shifts in US patriotism:
  • Then vs now: participants recalled a time when singing the Star-Spangled Banner in public spaces felt communal; contrasted with perceived apathy today.
  • Schools and civics: opinions that schools no longer emphasize civics/patriotic rituals; some recalled less enforcement of the Pledge of Allegiance and debates about references to “God.”
• 9/11 as a turning point:
  • Pre-9/11 patriotism characterized by some as regional/“Deep South” stereotype; post-9/11 brought a surge in national unity—along with heightened prejudice toward certain groups. One speaker recalled personal experiences of harassment as a brown child in that period.
  • Media environment: participants emphasized the absence of social media in 2001; reliance on TV news and the sense of “peak brainwashing.”
  • War on Terror recap (informal): Sept 11 attacks; Sept 20, 2001 Bush announces a global campaign; Oct 2001 Afghanistan invasion.
  • Tech/social timeline: pre-MySpace for 9/11; MySpace (circa 2003/2004), AOL/MSN Messenger; Facebook later.

Attention economy, phones, and lifestyle

• Phone habits: consensus that most people reflexively check phones at red lights, in lines; few can go an hour without touching a device. Phones replaced clocks/alarms; Bluetooth/Siri further reduce “device-free” time.
• Sleep/caffeine banter: extreme schedules (e.g., ~3.5 hours sleep) and espresso jokes highlighted hustle culture vs well-being.

Community culture and drama management

• Brainlet described defending “Dogs” (Doginal Dogs/Doganos) in another Space, removing detractors.
• Group ethos:
  • “We don’t police what you buy/don’t buy.”
  • “Best defense is a good offense”: don’t waste cycles on defense-only drama.
  • Strong caution against time sinks (Spaces drama, DMs) during bear markets.

Market state and sentiment check

• Spot snapshots (as referenced in-session): BTC ~$69k; ETH ~$2k; SOL ~$86; broad weekly drawdowns of 20–40% noted.
• Tone: “sentiment is ruined,” but framed as opportunity to refocus.
• Lessons from the cycle:
  • Profit-taking: examples of traders seeing seven-figure or even ~$20M meme-coin gains and round-tripping to near-zero; caution against anchoring to arbitrary target numbers ($500 SOL, $1M balance) before taking profits.

Strategy and risk management principles

• 80% to plan (Brainlet): treat 80% of target as success; DCA out just as you DCA in; avoid rigid price anchors.
• “Your bull market is predetermined by how you handle the bear”: show up, build, and keep a long-term perspective.
• Avoid “borrowing conviction”: if you adopt someone else’s thesis without your own due diligence, you’re prone to capitulate at lows.

Macro overview and risk-off framing (Blake Cooper)

• AI limitations: predictive use of generic AI criticized; advocates data files + custom analysis over canned predictions.
• Thesis: Bitcoin as a leading indicator of liquidity and risk sentiment—currently signaling risk-off.
  • Expect broader indices to “catch down.”
  • Without new catalysts, rallies likely fade; overhead supply from retail bagholders above $100k BTC likely creates sell pressure if/when prices revisit those levels.
• Positioning for non-pros:
  • Keep dry powder (suggested 10–30%).
  • Re-deploy in tranches (every 5–10% down); timing perfection is unrealistic.
  • Shorting can work but is dangerous; swing approaches preferred over day trading.
• Policy and recession risk:
  • Watch the Effective Federal Funds Rate (St. Louis Fed). In extreme conditions, rate cuts/QE can coincide with recessions and market downturns.
  • Layoffs and forward earnings: anticipated inflection in upcoming quarters; caution that “rate cuts = bullish” is not universally true.

Portfolio management, ETFs, and institutional incentives (Tom + Blake)

• Investor archetypes:
  • Passive investors (advisor-managed) vs active retail.
  • Advisors rebalance quarterly or annually within risk bands; use beta targets; rotate under mandate (even against personal “conviction”).
• Allocation methods:
  • Heavy use of index/sector products (S&P 500, sector ETFs), top-heavy weighting (e.g., Nvidia in AI/tech baskets) with a long tail of smaller bets.
• ETF providers’ business model:
  • Primary incentives are assets under management (AUM) and transaction flow (fees) rather than directional conviction on BTC/ETH.
  • “Institutions are going into the ETF/fee business and blockchain rails (e.g., tokenization), not necessarily ‘long crypto’ at scale.”
  • JPMC/Jamie Dimon cited for blockchain focus.
• ETF capitulation? Providers typically still profit via fees/volume even in downturns; unlikely to withdraw simply due to price weakness.

Market microstructure hiccup

• Observed abnormal wicks on ETH/BTC (e.g., ETH $2,000–$2,100) attributed to a market maker grid-strategy malfunction (Bybit cited). Expectation of forced liquidations and intraday volatility.

MicroStrategy, Saylor, and store-of-value debates

• Vitalik remark (as reported): “ETH is a store of value” was noted; skeptics questioned messaging vs founder selling.
• NFT aside: CryptoPunks around ~$60k discussed; some prefer Doginal Dogs; case for Punks’ provenance long-term vs opportunity cost now.
• MicroStrategy exec clip summarized (paraphrased):
  • “Hold on” through drawdowns; cites prior BTC max drawdowns; “fortress balance sheet.”
  • Leverage ~10–12%; ~$2.25B cash; dividend secure; not concerned about GAAP mark-to-market losses; extreme downside (e.g., BTC $8k for five years) would change calculus.
• Jim Cramer clip: “fill the Bitcoin reserve” line was questioned; clarification that the US holds seized BTC under policy constraints, not actively “buying” to fill reserves.
• Michael Saylor leverage guidance (clip): keep day job, frugality; mortgage debt into BTC; long horizon (e.g., $13M/BTC by 2045) used as framing.
  • Counterpoints:
    • That thesis feels compelling in uptrends but dangerous in drawdowns; concerns over cult-like narrative/gnostic certainty.
    • “Fiat maximalist” critique: reliance on existing administrative state/corporate-bank structures; contrast with visions of post-administrative coordination.
    • Pricing BTC in gold terms: noted underperformance over the past year.
• Rhetorical business-model critique (Dr. Mark Kramer):
  • If a “Bitcoin treasury firm” can’t buy aggressively at lows (constrained by liquidity feedback loops and reserve policies), it exposes a model weakness; possible need to tap USD reserves would then face market interpretation risk.

Practical guidance and mindsets reiterated

• Capital preservation: risk-off posture for now; maintain dry powder; avoid overtrading.
• Build in the bear:
  • Improve skills: data modeling, forecasting, tooling; create content and community; increase real-life income to invest later.
• Process discipline:
  • DCA rules both in and out; 80% to plan; avoid anchoring to round targets.
  • Don’t outsource conviction; know what you own and why.
• Cultural note: a recurring emphasis on avoiding drama, focusing on work, and staying in one’s lane.

Names and entities referenced

• Participants: Shibo (host), Tom, Blake Cooper, Brainlet, Web/Webb, Rock, MJ, Bark (quoted), Shield, Tall, Warren/“War,” Dr. Mark Kramer (chiropractor), IB.
• Public figures/orgs: Michael Saylor & MicroStrategy, Vitalik, Jim Cramer, Jamie Dimon/JPMorgan, Fidelity, 21Shares.
• Assets/platforms: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, Pepe, TRUMP (memecoin), CryptoPunks, Doginal Dogs, Bybit.
• Macro/policy hooks: EFFR (St. Louis Fed), QE/rate cuts, layoffs/earnings.

Memorable lines and distilled takeaways

• “Your bull market is predetermined by how you handle the bear.”
• “The best defense is a good offense.”
• “Don’t borrow conviction.”
• “80% to plan is success.”

Closing

• Session wound down with reminders to follow the Crypto Spaces Network schedule and a musical close with Redemption Song, reinforcing themes of mental emancipation, resilience, and long-horizon focus.