THE CRYPTO SPACE 🚨

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Shibo
@GodsBurntAug 25, 2025

The Spaces opened with extended music and hype before pivoting into a live crypto market check and macro discussion. Hosts Bark and Shibo noted Solana trading above $200 with neutrality on the Fear & Greed Index, and debated whether rate cuts expected mid‑September and weekly jobless claims would be priced in ahead of time. A major segment examined U.S. Treasury exploration of identity checks embedded into DeFi smart contracts—viewed by most speakers as bearish for decentralization—while acknowledging regulators’ AML/KYC imperatives and the growth‑regulation trade‑off. The room agreed centralized‑exchange listings are losing their “pump” effect as activity migrates on‑chain (Base/Solana DEX aggregation), with retail participation still subdued. Strategy guidance emphasized spot over leverage, diversification across 5–10 names, building profit‑taking ladders, and rotation into BTC or stables while referencing SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC pairs. A long-form case for daily DCA into Bitcoin (with 0.1–1 BTC targets and future borrow‑against‑BTC optionality) contrasted with more speculative meme‑coin plays. Tom Lee’s thesis that ETH could reach $10–15k in 2025 (and $25k by 2028) was seen as plausible but not grounds to “full port.” Operationally, the hosts pushed for stronger community engagement and teased delayed drops pending higher participation.

Twitter Space Summary: Crypto Market, Regulation, Strategy, and Community Ops

Who’s Who (handles/aliases inferred from the session)

  • Bark (host; frequently steering macro/market discussion, community ops, and strategy)
  • Shibo (co-host; market takes, portfolio construction, execution details)
  • King Ant (challenged to show a Bitcoin DCA screenshot)
  • Web (community regular; subject of some banter about IRL streams)
  • Tall (regular; audio/connectivity references; teased by co-hosts)
  • DeFi (regular; often volleying questions/banter with hosts)
  • Bill (referenced as a “Fed” who joined a prior space; not clearly present today)

Note: Early portions included long music interludes/rap lyrics (Speakers 1, 2, 3, 10). The analytical summary below focuses on the crypto discussion and community ops.

Market Snapshot and Sentiment

  • Live reads (as called out during the session; values reflect what participants cited on-air):
    • Total crypto market cap: ~$3.96T
    • Ethereum: ~$4,781 (ATH referenced as $4,891 on Nov 16, 2021; back-and-forth on whether new ATH was tapped; some confusion acknowledged)
    • Solana: ~$205–210, “moving with momentum,” stayed >$200 for ~24 hours
    • XRP: >$3 (described as having a “force field”/“divine protection” at $3)
    • BNB: ~$863
    • DOGE: ~$0.203
    • Fear & Greed Index: “Neutral” despite SOL >$200 (hosts saw this as constructive)
    • “GMV” cited at 114,000 (context not fully specified)
  • Risk-on tone: Co-hosts believe markets are already pricing in rate cuts; SOL’s strength and ETH proximity to ATH reinforce a bullish skew.
  • Bitcoin dominance: ~58% and “falling like a rock” during the session; expectation for continued alt participation if this trend persists.

Near-Term Macro/Catalysts

  • Economic prints: Unemployment claims (Thursday) flagged as a scheduled catalyst.
  • Rate cuts: FOMC next meeting Sept 16–17; panel expects markets to price in the decision ahead of the actual date, potentially into early September (some believe it could start “sooner”).
  • Outlook: Hosts anticipate a flip to “more bullish” later today/this evening into the week, with the caveat that timing won’t be linear or “regular” this cycle.

DeFi Regulation: KYC Built Into Smart Contracts?

  • Reported development: US Treasury is exploring identity checks baked directly into DeFi smart contracts and requested public comment (hosts referred to this as under a “genius act”).
  • Bearish framing by multiple speakers:
    • Identity enforcement turns DeFi into CeFi functionally; undermines decentralization and censorship-resistance.
    • KYC-as-gate could lead to geographic blanket bans (e.g., residents in restrictive jurisdictions like NY). If KYC is mandatory, VPNs become irrelevant barriers.
    • User experience: Average users won’t spin up terminals/CLI wallets to bypass App Store wallets if KYC rules target wallet apps.
  • Counterpoint (pragmatic/regulatory lens):
    • Centralized platforms (Coinbase/Robinhood) must KYC as publicly traded or soon-to-be bank-like institutions; AML/sanctions compliance is non-negotiable.
    • Without KYC, rails can be abused (money laundering, sanctions evasion). “We don’t want to be the railways for criminal organizations.”
  • Industry fork-in-the-road: Stay niche/Wild West or accept “growing pains” with more regulation as scale attracts regulators. Hosts expect increasing regulation, but oppose DeFi-level identity mandates that enable broad denial-of-access.

CEX vs DEX: Where Volume and Listings Matter

  • DEX-first reality on Solana: Majority of SOL token volume currently on DEXs; public now more educated and onboarded on-chain.
  • Centralized listings losing punch:
    • Examples given: A token listed on Coinbase (“useless,” per speaker) and another on Robinhood saw limited/no price response versus prior cycles.
    • Coinbase’s trajectory: pivoting into DEX aggregation via Base and, expectedly, Solana token access. That shift reduces the “listing pop” narrative.
  • Memecoins are (still) on-chain:
    • “No real trader buys memecoins on CEX; that’s for giga-n00bs.”
    • “Moonshot/Moonpay” confusion for card-based buys of Trump-linked tokens; KYC outcomes vary.
  • Cautionary case: Sui ecosystem incident likened to a “Radium of Sui” smart contract risk—memecoins dropped ~95% “within two seconds,” highlighting tail risk of smart contract/lp infra.

ETH Macro Thesis (Tom Lee) and Portfolio Posture

  • Tom Lee (Fundstrat) angle cited: “ETH is arguably the biggest macro trade for the next 10–15 years,” likening 2025 to ETH’s “1971 moment” (USD off gold standard). Targets mentioned: $15k in 2025, $25k by 2028.
  • Panel reaction:
    • It’s possible for ETH to print very high prints (even if briefly). Time-at-price matters for strength; limit orders can capture spikes.
    • Question posed: “Full-port SOL to ETH?” Answer: No. Broad agreement that concentration into a single asset is risky; prefer concentrated diversification among winners.

Strategy, Risk, and Execution

  • Core principles emphasized by Bark & Shibo:
    • Hold spot; avoid leverage. “I’ve never met a truly wealthy person who got rich on leverage trading crypto.” If you lack insider information, perma-leverage is just gambling.
    • Diversify among winners (keep it tight):
      • 5–10 positions max to monitor/manage properly (BTC, ETH, SOL, a few memes/NFTs/ordinals/dogenals).
      • Don’t “full-port” hyper-niche plays.
    • Stage selling and rotation:
      • Example framework: Trim SOL at staged targets (e.g., 210/220/230). If price retraces (e.g., to 190), consider rebuy or sit in stables/BTC.
      • Consider rotating alt gains into BTC (hard money, fewer execution risks than smart-contract platforms), but check cross pairs (e.g., SOL/BTC, ETH/BTC) to avoid selling cheap relative to BTC.
    • DCA and time horizon:
      • “The single best IQ test in crypto is how much Bitcoin you actually own at the end.”
      • Prescription: Buy BTC daily ($5/$10/$20 etc.) and cold-store periodically. Maintain two buckets: an untouchable BTC stack (generational hedge) and a “fun” wallet for trading.
      • Long-term math: one BTC by ~2034 could equate to retirement-level purchasing power if cycle compounding plays out. Borrowing against BTC (tax-efficient) will grow as infrastructure matures.
    • Behavioral alpha:
      • Not trading is also a trade; don’t force action. Many would be better off DCA-ing BTC and doing nothing than overtrading.
      • Set the plan, then execute the plan—don’t constantly pivot.

Retail, Liquidity, and Cycle Structure

  • Retail participation is still thin relative to prior cycle; present activity dominated by diehards. Hence, CEX listings don’t move as much.
  • Cycle timing likely “non-regular”: Instead of a textbook halving-driven arc, expect irregular, news/event-driven pumps/dumps (e.g., politics, rate cuts). “They don’t want regularity because with regularity comes predictability.”

Community Ops, Engagement, and Upcoming Drops

  • Engagement matters: Co-hosts pushed for comments/quote-retweets/tags/GIFs at the start of spaces (especially during the music warm-up) to juice reach and get “drops” over the line.
  • “Labs” update: a fix expected this evening; a drop planned for during this space was delayed due to insufficient comments.
  • Prior day highlight: Grant Cardone cameo yielded strong engagement; call to bring that “blow up the comments” energy every day.
  • “Crypto town hall” positioning: Open forum beyond memes/dogenals, with claims that even a federal agent (“Bill”) joined stage previously. Teaser that Eric Trump may appear during World Liberty 5.

Culture and Side Threads (light, but notable)

  • “Dog star”/Sirius jokes, banter about satellites and “divine protection.”
  • Credit-card fraud anecdotes (dark web purchases leading to daily food orders; cautionary tales about card/KYC flows via on-ramps like Moonshot/Moonpay).
  • College/fraternity stories and a wider point: opportunity cost vs investing (several said a portion of tuition would have compounded better in BTC).
  • Joking challenges toward regulars (e.g., King Ant asked to submit 7-day DCA screenshots for a prize).

Actionable Takeaways (as expressed by the speakers)

  • Macro watchlist:
    • Unemployment claims (Thu)
    • FOMC rate decision (Sept 16–17); market likely to pre-price moves
    • ETH proximity to ATH; SOL stability >$200
    • BTC dominance trend (currently ~58% and falling during session)
  • Portfolio/Execution:
    • Maintain a BTC DCA and cold-storage regimen; consider two-wallet approach (generational BTC vs “fun” trading).
    • Keep positions to 5–10; avoid full-porting any single volatile asset.
    • If trimming alts, do it in stages and consider rotating into BTC versus stables, but check cross charts (SOL/BTC, ETH/BTC) first.
    • Avoid leverage unless you truly have an edge; spot bias preferred.
  • Community:
    • Turn on notifications for Bark and Shibo; anticipate a drop later today post-labs fix.
    • Engage comments/retweets at the start of each space to support algorithmic reach and unlock in-space drops.

Open Questions to Monitor

  • Details/timeline for US Treasury’s DeFi identity proposal (scope, legal basis, how “smart contract KYC” would be enforced across clients/wallets).
  • Whether Coinbase/Base and other large venues accelerate DEX aggregation into Solana (further diluting listing “pop”).
  • ETH trajectory into/through a potential new ATH; durability of $10k–$15k scenarios and what macro setup would be required.
  • Continuation of BTC dominance downtrend and implications for alt breadth across September into the FOMC window.

Key Quotes (paraphrased for clarity)

  • Bark: “The best strategy for most is to DCA into Bitcoin daily and do nothing. Not trading is also a trade.”
  • Shibo: “Diversification among winners, but keep it tight. Stage profit-taking at predetermined levels; rotate thoughtfully.”
  • On regulation: “DeFi identity mandates are gigabearish—this is how denial-of-access starts.”
  • On CEX listings: “The listing-pop era is fading as Coinbase moves to DEX aggregation and users get more on-chain.”
  • On leverage: “I’ve never met a truly wealthy person who got rich leverage-trading crypto.”

Brief Note on Non-Discussion Content

  • Multiple music/lyric interludes (rap/trap) by various speakers throughout the first half and at the close. These segments did not contain market or policy analysis and were treated as atmosphere/warm-up.