NEW STOCK PICK | LIVE EARNINGS | STOCK MARKET TALK

StocksOnSpaces avatar
Stocks On Spaces
@StocksOnSpacesJan 22, 2026

The Spaces covered a fast-moving market day with a focus on Intel and Intuitive Surgical earnings, Elon Musk’s autonomy headlines, and a new Arctic/Greenland logistics equity idea. Macro prints were supportive (Q3 GDP second read 4.4%, jobless claims ~200k, PCE in line). Intel posted a double beat but guided below consensus, sending shares lower, while Intuitive Surgical delivered a double beat. The panel highlighted Tesla’s first driverless (no safety driver, no lidar) robotaxi units in Austin as a pivotal autonomy step, discussed Waymo’s Miami launch, and previewed next week’s mega-cap earnings and the Fed decision. Defense/space remained active (Kratos, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile), with SpaceX’s potential IPO seen as a sector-wide multiple catalyst. Stock Talk presented Pangea Logistics (PANL) as a niche Arctic beneficiary with the world’s largest high ice-class dry bulk fleet and direct Greenland proof-of-capability, arguing it benefits whether military action accelerates or commercial Arctic lanes simply open. Additional themes included drones (sentiment rich but pricey), AI’s accelerating enterprise adoption, energy/commodities strength, and selective ETF usage for momentum and solar exposure.

Stocks on Spaces Recap: Market, Earnings, AV/AI, Defense/Space, and a New Arctic Logistics Pick

Who spoke

  • Evan (host)
  • Options Mike (Mike)
  • Stock Talk Weekly (Stock Talk)
  • Wolf (Wolf)
  • Stock Sniper (Sniper)
  • Logical (Logical)
  • Kirk (Kirk)
  • Others chimed in briefly

Market setup and headlines

  • Macro/data
    • Q3 GDP (second read) 4.4% vs 4.3% expected; initial jobless claims ~200k vs 209k expected; PCE in line.
    • Market breadth quiet; SPY and QQQ reclaimed 9/21-day EMAs intraday. Energy strong; Exxon Mobil at/all near ATH.
  • Elon Musk at Davos/this morning (as discussed)
    • Said Optimus (humanoid robots) targeted for sale by end of next year.
    • Reiterated the limiting factor for AI is electrical power infrastructure.
    • CNBC reportedly cut away from his remarks streaming on X.
  • AV/robotaxi and autonomy ecosystem
    • Waymo announced expansion to Miami (waitlist initially).
    • Tesla-related: later in session, panel discussed Tesla beginning limited driverless (no safety operator) operations in Austin with camera-only approach (no lidar).
  • Policy/geopolitics items mentioned
    • TikTok/Oracle: panel discussed reports that U.S. and China may sign off on a TikTok deal with Oracle involvement; host expects resolution soon.
    • Credit card 10% APR cap idea (political headline): Stock Talk called it non-credible economically (would collapse credit availability).
    • Defense-company buyback restriction idea: unclear if executive authority can directly impose; President could influence contract awards to incentivize behavior.
    • Other mentions: U.S. leaving WHO; various tariff comments (including Iran at 25%); noted but not analyzed in depth.

Earnings: results, setups, and next week’s slate

  • Reported today (live)
    • Intel (INTC): “double beat” on Q4 (rev 13.67B vs 13.39B; EPS ~$0.15 vs ~$0.08) but Q1 guide below consensus (rev guide ~12.3B vs ~12.5B; EPS guide ~0.57). Stock -5% AH. Takeaway: big run into print; guide tempered near term despite packaging/bottleneck narrative.
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): double beat (rev ~2.86B vs 2.76B; EPS ~$2.53 vs ~$2.27). Stock reaction discussed favorably.
    • CSX: missed top/bottom; minimal AH reaction.
  • Earlier today
    • Procter & Gamble: modestly positive reaction (consumer staple resilience).
    • GE: mixed; soft off highs after a large multi-year run.
    • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): copper-linked setup closely watched; initial down move; guidance to review later.
  • Coming up
    • Energy: Schlumberger (SLB) tomorrow morning.
    • Mega-cap week ahead: Microsoft, Tesla, Meta (Wed); Apple (Thu). Following week: Alphabet (Wed), Amazon (Thu Feb 5 as noted on the call). Fed decision and Chair Powell mid-week.

Sector and thematic discussions

Semis/AI supply chain

  • Intel
    • Options Mike: Intel’s huge move needs earnings to start showing up; still skeptical of the core business despite national-security tailwinds.
    • Wolf: Long Intel since mid-2024 for US-based fab/packaging national-security angle; won’t press into earnings after big run; packaging/bottleneck (e.g., Amkor) is phase-2 AI trade.
  • Packaging & memory adjacencies
    • Wolf: AI 2.0 “bottleneck” names (e.g., Amkor) have run parabolically; would like shakeouts to reset entries for investors (not traders). Memory-leverage names have been extreme leaders; prefers corrections to build long-term positions.

Defense, drones, and space

  • Defense equities
    • Sniper: Defense stocks had a rough morning after explosive YTD starts (many up ~50% YTD in first weeks). Kratos corrected; valuations recalibrating.
    • Ongoing watch: ISRG (separate from defense), and chip space via Intel.
  • Drones and counter-drones
    • Sniper: Drone and missile-strike use in modern conflicts is rising; expects increased adoption globally and looser export rules by 2026, aiding contractors (e.g., Kratos) and counter-drone names.
    • Stock Talk: Drone complex is sentiment-rich and expensive. Even quality names (AVAV, KTOS) carry demanding multiples and can get hit on earnings; others (e.g., ONDS and other small caps) are real but richly valued. Best risk-reward likely in the U.S. drone supply chain, but it’s immature—scale constraints may limit near-term benefit.
  • Space ecosystem
    • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB): discussed frequently. ASTS “BlueBird 7” constellation ambitions; target 45–60 satellites in 2026 (as relayed). ASTS relies on SpaceX/RKLB for launches.
    • SpaceX IPO: multiple speakers expect sector-wide multiple expansion into a highly anticipated listing (even at very rich valuations). Proxy trades across space names may keep working into the event.
    • Second-gen Starlink (target ~2027): cited as a funding driver for a SpaceX listing; “direct-to-device” angle noted.

Autonomy (AV) and Tesla

  • Today’s Tesla discussion
    • Multiple speakers emphasized the significance of Tesla beginning limited operations without a safety driver in Austin using a camera-only stack (no lidar). Clarification: initial rollout is “a few” vehicles mixed into the fleet, with stepwise expansion.
    • Stock Talk’s view: If sustained without major incidents, this is an industry-level breakthrough. No-lidar autonomy would have far-reaching implications for cost curves and scalability across vehicles and other platforms.
    • Business model implication: Elon’s move to subscription-only FSD, followed by driverless ops, could tighten pricing power and create a powerful advertising effect if robotaxis are visible in large cities where consumers can immediately go purchase the capability.
    • Second-order effects: Logistics transformation (24/7 operation, no driver fatigue), trucking/warehouse automation (integration with existing automated forklifts/sorting), potential disintermediation of middlemen in logistics. Longer-term pressure on roadside services tied to human driver cycles.

AI platforms and software disruption

  • LLM progress (Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude) and rapid emergence of specialized enterprise tools (code, healthcare, law, accounting next) were flagged as catalysts for compressing SaaS valuations and accelerating adoption.
  • Strategic takeaway: The panel framed AI as bigger-than-dotcom in impact; concentration, conviction, and thematic alignment matter. Power/energy capacity is a binding constraint.

New stock idea: Pangea Logistics (PANL)

  • Presenter: Stock Talk
  • Thesis in brief
    • Direct Arctic/Greenland logistics exposure with a unique asset base and proven operations in icy waters.
    • Fleet: ~40 vessels, with ~12 (≈29%) Class 1A ice-class dry-bulk ships (capable in severe ice; often less dependent on icebreakers vs 1B/1C). Company claims to operate the world’s largest high-ice-class dry-bulk fleet.
    • Execution proof point: Built a temporary “pop-up” port at Moriusaq, Greenland; completed an Arctic dry-bulk shipment trial (the company characterized it as the northernmost dry-bulk cargo ever carried). Demonstrates Greenland capability.
    • Commercial tailwinds: Arctic shipping lanes opening (climate/seasonality) and rising Arctic activity are supportive regardless of the pace or form of U.S. military activity in Greenland. Company commentary last quarter cited “solid Arctic trade activity” and niche fleet utilization, driving TCE ~10% above market.
    • Valuation snapshot (as discussed): ~10x forward P/E; ~10x price/FCF; ~0.8x sales; top-line growth targeted ~15–20%.
  • Positioning and risk management
    • Stock Talk entered common around low-$7s, ~4% initial weight now >5% after move; options ~16% of position.
    • Prefers commercial exposure over direct military dependency; still benefits if Greenland/Arctic activity accelerates for defense or commercial reasons.
  • Competitors and technicals
    • Looked at another operator (“CNBT” referenced) with 10 ice-class vessels but lower class and smaller fleet share (10% vs PANL’s ~29%).
    • Technical setup: defended 50-day; 9/21-day EMAs curling; constructive daily pattern at entry.
  • Key risks & what to watch
    • Shipping cyclicality and rates volatility; seasonal Arctic windows; execution on Arctic contracts; potential need for icebreaker assistance in certain lanes; lack of explicit U.S. government contracts (indirect benefit path). Liquidity typical of small caps.

Prior pick update

  • Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)
    • JP Morgan initiated sector work on dredging; raised GLDD PT to $20. Stock spiked double digits intraday; Stock Talk reiterated multi-quarter thesis strength and is holding for larger move.

Ticker quick takes from Q&A

  • Space basket (ASTS, RKLB, others): Likely to keep inflating into a SpaceX IPO. Overvalued doesn’t preclude further upside near term.
  • Drones/counter-drones (AVAV, KTOS, ONDS, others): Real tech but expensive. Supply-chain picks could be better risk/reward; U.S. capacity/scale remains a constraint. Expect high beta and earnings landmines.
  • VVX (V2X): Manages the U.S. base in Greenland; solid but a lower-growth, lower-margin government-services model. Technically extended.
  • IRDM (Iridium): Polar (pole-to-pole) L-band coverage makes it a natural communications fit for Arctic/Greenland ops; positive thematic tie-in.
  • AMPX (Amprius): Compelling high-growth Li-ion story but steep valuation (~30x sales pre-profitability). Stock Talk prefers existing battery exposure via ENS (EnerSys).
  • Metals/commodities
    • Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX): aluminum complex breaking multi-decade bases; Logical owns CENX as higher-beta AA proxy; sees underappreciated power/data-center optionality in some assets.
    • Copper: trade is strong but entries matter; some missed early runs (e.g., Ivanhoe-related names).
  • Crypto proxies: MSTR, COIN charts flagged as weak/avoid for now.

Trading color and setups

  • Options Mike
    • Long-biased; owns Feb-dated SPY calls (trimmed strength, holding core for potential all-time highs). Traded META (volatile intraday), Tesla, Amazon. Watching Intel as the week’s key print. Market searching for momentum follow-through.
  • Wolf
    • Owns SLB calls (oil/AI angle); holding META into earnings; small AAPL position (RSI heavy, clear stop); sees a need for pullbacks in AI “2.0” bottleneck names to create better long entries for investors.
  • Stock Talk’s process
    • Buys only when three align: (1) thematically relevant; (2) fundamentally palatable valuation; (3) technically sound entries (bases, support at 9/21-day EMAs, not extended). Emphasizes conviction, continuous monitoring (weekly chart reviews, valuation resets post-earnings), and discipline (doesn’t chase big gap-ups).

Miscellaneous items mentioned

  • Report of Amazon planning additional corporate job cuts as part of broader restructuring (panel speculated AI-driven efficiency, stock reaction muted during session).
  • Capital One reportedly to buy fintech Brex (~$5.15B cash) was floated on the call; noted as unconfirmed by speakers.
  • Waymo/Zoox deployments continue (lidar-based) alongside Tesla’s camera-only path—industry momentum looks like 1–3 year regulatory/safety rollout rather than distant “someday” tech.

Calendar highlights

  • Near-term: SLB; ongoing staples/industrials.
  • Next week: Microsoft, Tesla, Meta (Wed); Apple (Thu). Following week: Alphabet (Wed), Amazon (Thu Feb 5 as cited).
  • Macro: FOMC decision and Chair Powell presser mid-week; continued AI/energy power capacity narrative.

Bottom lines

  • Market tone: constructive while indices hold 9/21-day EMAs. Leaders rotate; energy firm; defensives mixed; semis/AI/packaging extended but still thematic.
  • Thematics to prioritize
    • AI infrastructure and phase-2 bottlenecks (packaging, power).
    • Autonomy (robotaxis/logistics) with Tesla’s camera-only step as a potential industry breakpoint; watch safety data and city scaling.
    • Arctic/Greenland logistics and communications as multi-year opportunities irrespective of near-term defense pacing.
  • New idea: PANL offers a differentiated, asset-backed way to express the Arctic/Greenland logistics theme with proven 1A ice-class capacity and a Greenland operations proof point, at a still-reasonable valuation—sized as a mid-single-digit position with standard small-cap and shipping risks.