wtf is an ETHOS Broker on Coffee with Captain #1,003 pwd by $APE

The Spaces examined the state of PFP/NFT clubs and how utility, exclusivity, and communication practices impact holder retention and demand. Hosts Chris “Cap” Jourdan and Steve Kaczynski argued the current weakness isn’t a marketplace or L2 issue but a product/club problem: oversupply, diluted exclusivity, and inconsistent value between major IRL events leave little reason to hold. They contrasted “supply-only” takes with Scott Kominers’ view that value is about supply relative to demand and use-value, not arbitrary scarcity. Practical fixes included restoring true membership gating at events, tiered benefits, consistent seasonal activations, and better, frequent communication. Joey Vales challenged supply ideas via bonding curves; Cap/Steve pushed back, favoring simple supply-demand signals and clear utility over ponzi-like mechanics. In the second half, Serpent detailed Ethos: a social reputation protocol with reviews/vouching, Listings (bullish/bearish sentiment), and the new Broker for OTC trades, hiring, and bounties—backed by reputation and slashing. Ethos combats spam with scoring, addresses groupthink by broadening communities, and aims to be social infrastructure beyond crypto. The show also featured a Death Fun gameplay giveaway and a note on Polymarket’s U.S. waitlist.

Coffee with Captain — NFT Clubs, Exclusivity, and Ethos Protocol

Opening and Housekeeping

• Cold open: a freestyle/lyrical riff referencing Web1, Web2, Web3, “pyramid schemes,” Nebula, and Twitter — a playful, creative intro before the show proper.
• Show intro: Coffee with Captain, powered by ApeCoin; all content is educational and entertainment only, not financial advice; early-stage tech and crypto are volatile and risky.
• Hosts: Cap and Steve (co-hosts). Cap points viewers to reminders, YouTube simulcast, and the carousel; reiterates risk disclosures and personal token holdings.
• Technical issues: Steve recounts prior soundboard malfunction after a coffee spill; resolved via “button mashing,” minor lingering webcam flash; vows to avoid further tinkering mid-show.

NFT Macro: Oversupply, Rotation, and the “Club Problem”

• Cap’s framing: The core challenge isn’t OpenSea or Blur; it’s an NFT/PFP “club” problem exacerbated by oversupply and limited new entrants. He expected consolidation to 4–6 flagship communities; instead there remain 100+ clubs with not enough participants, undermining exclusivity while prices still reflect exclusivity.
• Observed rotations: Price action feels like capital rotating among collections rather than sustained net new demand. Examples cited:
  • Good Vibes Club: ~0.76 ETH → ~0.72 ETH on collection offers.
  • Goblin Town: sharp pump (Cap references ~0.68 ETH) followed by steep retrace.
  • Mythics drifting below ~0.3 ETH; Oddities near ~0.25 ETH before a small bounce.
• Steve’s macro: “It’s an NFT/PFP club problem.” Holders need compelling reasons to hold beyond trading catalysts. He’s personally over-exposed (two Mythics, three Oddities, a couple Good Vibes) while questioning what the sustainable hold case is.

Debate: Are PFPs “Useless” Without Massive Supply Reduction?

• AJT’s take (as cited by Cap): Long-term, PFPs are useless unless collection supply drops to 500–1,000, transforming them into scarce collectibles; Goblin Town burning NFTs bought with fees is one path.
• Steve’s rebuttal: Disagrees with fixed supply thresholds. Emphasizes: “Supply relative to demand” and “use value” matter more than arbitrary scarcity. He references Scott Commoners (Steve’s co-author), who argues:
  • Value isn’t set by an absolute supply cap; it’s supply vs. demand and purpose.
  • For digital fashion, memorabilia, or category-defining items, 10,000 can be “small” relative to total potential audience.
  • Speculation hoping for market expansion can crowd out actual use value by making assets harder for true users to acquire.
• Cap’s question: What will change to create renewed demand? He’s skeptical that non-crypto natives will want to join crypto-native clubs absent clear mainstream bridges.

2021–2022 vs. Today: How Exclusivity Once Drove Value

• Steve’s view: In 2021–2022, highly exclusive events and experiences were core to PFP value. Examples:
  • BAYC: ApeFest, private parties; major artist lineups (Eminem, Snoop Dogg, Lil Wayne, Future, LCD Soundsystem, The Roots). Owning the PFP meant access to can’t-miss experiences.
  • VeeFriends/VeeCon: Originally positioned as token-gated; later ticket distribution broadened access. Steve agreed with the distribution decision for international holders but notes it reduced primary token-gated exclusivity (affecting perceived value).
  • World of Women: Gala/Madonna; access truly required holding the NFT at the time.
  • Doodles: Genesis Factory and gated immersive events (e.g., Diplo set). Miss registration and you couldn’t get in—even if you were a holder.
• Cap’s personal experience: BAYC was the single greatest “door opener” he’s had (2021–2023). It led to relationships with founders, investors, and operators. Today, however, “plus-one creep” and friend networks often bypass gating — eroding membership value.
• Consequence: If anyone can easily get into “exclusive” events via social connections, why hold the asset? Membership must confer tangible, consistent benefits that are not easily replicated or transferred.

What Could Restore Membership Value?

• Steve’s prescriptions:
  • Reinstate strict gating and tiered access: e.g., apes vs. mutants vs. dogs get different areas, rewards, and chances (prize pools, grab bags, exclusive zones).
  • Create can’t-miss flagship events (clear, compelling reasons to travel and attend) while maintaining consistent digital/IRL activations between events (seasonal merch drops, puzzle hunts, club-only tournaments/games).
  • Optimize sponsor alignment: Brands covet high-disposable-income audiences and will pay to reach 1–2k strictly gated attendees if the demographic is a fit; exclusivity can be sponsor-friendly.
  • Don’t prioritize mercenaries over club members: Paying high-follower KOLs who never held the asset may alienate loyal holders; retention > raw awareness.
  • Communications cadence: Build in public, share monthly updates, board notes, roadmaps. The perceived “radio silence” from some clubs undermines holder confidence and reduces retention.
• Concrete examples discussed:
  • Punks at ApeFest: Hypothetical where winners of Ape Games or random participants receive CryptoPunks as prizes—dramatically increasing FOMO and holder-only value.
  • Member Director role: Dedicated staffers for member benefits, international activations, customer profiling, and seasonal campaigns.
  • VeeFriends as comms benchmark: Frequent emails, Discord announcements, and multi-channel updates; floor price aside, the communications discipline drives engagement.

Bonding Curves and Pricing

• Joey Vales’ idea: Tie membership pricing to a bonding curve (later entrants pay more) rather than hard supply limits.
• Steve’s counter: Dislikes bonding curves—feels “ponzi-ish.” Prefers organic supply-demand pricing and clear membership utility — complex financial mechanics turn many off.
• Cap’s nuance: NFTs already behaved like dynamic “bonding curves” through market pricing, but hyper-financialization (Blur farming, Stratos/Strategy sweeps, “OpenSea Voyage” style campaigns) distorts organic supply-demand signals.

Death Fun Sponsor Segment (Interactive Gameplay)

• Format: Daily interactive play with $3,000 in prizes; $1,000 grand prize raffle eligibility by playing $20 via the referral link pinned by Cap/Steve.
• Runs: Played for community members “mesh” and “dort.” Mesh secured a small cash-out; Dort’s runs were unlucky (hosts promised another run in future). Light-hearted talk of gambler’s fallacy.
• Call-to-action: Play responsibly; if you can’t afford to lose $20, don’t play. Use the referral link; sponsors track engagement to justify continued giveaways.

Retention vs. Awareness and the KOL Dilemma

• LamboLand’s point (surfaced by Steve): “Retention over awareness.” The right attention matters more than all attention; avoid partnerships with KOLs who alienate core members.
• Cap’s warning: Many brands have prioritized mercenaries and mass appeal over club authenticity, eroding trust and retention.
• PROOF critique: Canceling Proof of Conference was a major fumble; could have been a flagship annual event. Cap calls it a bigger misstep than the CCO decision.
• Positive note: Shout-out to Garga (Yuga co-founder) for buying back assets lost by a hacked community member—strong community leadership.

Ethos Deep Dive (Guest: Serpent)

• Serpent’s stance: Neutral (“Switzerland”) in Kaoshi vs. Polymarket discourse; invites comparing their Ethos scores for reputational signal.
• Ethos vision: Social infrastructure for crypto (and eventually beyond) that measures reputation, trustworthiness, and sentiment to counter the “Wild West” era (likened to robbing banks/trains). Goal: add accountability so it’s more profitable to be an “upstanding community member” than a bad actor.
• Core components:
  • Reviews and Ethos Score: A reputation layer tied to identities; the browser/X plugin surfaces scores inline.
  • Listings sentiment: Bullish/Bearish tracking over time (distinct from reputation). Example: Somnia shows majority bearish sentiment while still having a positive reputation score — sentiment and trust are orthogonal.
  • Vouching: Put money where your mouth is—economic skin-in-the-game as “economic security” against spam and manipulation.
• Broker product (OTC trading/hiring/bounties):
  • Central marketplace to buy/sell, hire, post “looking for work,” and create bounties — with counterparties visible through Ethos Scores.
  • Reduces reliance on heavy collateralization by adding reputational consequences (e.g., defaults can be recorded as negative reviews/slashes).
  • Early usage patterns surprised Serpent: crypto’s “gig economy” is global; many reputable candidates transparently post prices for content creation, clipping, reply work, etc.
• Spam and Groupthink controls:
  • Spam: Most AI-slop or bot-like content is from low-score accounts (often <14). The score system and vouching deter spam; Ethos aims to become the “spam solution” for broader web platforms (e.g., rewards programs can target reputable users).
  • Groupthink: Ethos is onboarding diverse CT communities across geographies and niches (ordinals, DeFi, etc.) to dilute echo chambers. The goal is an aggregate, cross-tribal “median view,” not a single clique.
• Bounties, Slashing, and Accountability:
  • Bounties: Serpent posted bounties for identifying sybils and abuse (e.g., paying for positive reviews). Community responses have already led to slashes.
  • Slashing example: A user offered $4–$5 for positive reviews from >14-score accounts and was slashed based on evidence (Telegram screenshots). Serpent emphasizes collecting strong evidence and proportional penalties.
  • “Political bond” concept: Inspired by Robin Hanson—public figures can post large bounties inviting investigators to find wrongdoing within a fixed window; lack of credible findings strengthens their reputation. Frank DeGods engaged constructively after Serpent floated a bounty to substantiate claims that Frank pumps meme coins and dumps on followers.
• Legal moderation:
  • Ethos will remove illegal or prohibited content from the front-end per ToS (e.g., assassination bounties, illicit drug trade), but on-chain records persist, similar to Ethereum’s neutrality. Third parties could theoretically build front-ends elsewhere; Ethos won’t display such content.
• Integrations and building on Ethos:
  • Developer API available (ethos.network). Reviews are composable rails; integrations can read/write reviews (e.g., a lending protocol auto-logs defaults as negative reviews).
  • Collaborations: Protocols like Zeke (Signal > Noise) integrate Ethos Scores into their algorithms; future credit/lending hooks anticipated.
• Business model and sustainability:
  • Revenue streams: vouching; reputation markets; Dutch auction listings; broker premium features; sprinkled fees not tied to pure swap volume.
  • Philosophy: Prove product-market fit solving real problems first; monetize responsibly later. Ethos aims to build a durable moat via utility, not extractive fees.
  • Long-term: Ethos as reputation infrastructure beyond crypto—think a trust layer for reviews, marketplaces, and social platforms (from stadiums and restaurants to high-value OTC trades: watches, Pokémon cards, etc.).
• Access:
  • Invites: Hosts have limited invites; DM with your ETH address to request access and onboarding guidance.

Polymarket Note

• Cap flags Polymarket’s US waitlist opening as “inevitable”; references a “$10B valuation” and jokes about Shane (Polymarket) being the “unicorn billionaire” who hasn’t replied to DMs. The hosts suggest a bounty approach (via Ethos Broker) to secure tough guest bookings.

Closing and Upcoming

• Steve departs early to take his daughter to get her braces off.
• Tease: Another guest later this week from one of the three major brands discussed; announcements forthcoming.
• Outro: Show reminder that nothing is financial advice; keep exploring and stay curious.

Key Highlights and Takeaways

• The problem: NFT/PFP clubs have an oversupply-demand mismatch and diluted exclusivity, driving holder fatigue and price weakness.
• The solution space: Tighten gatekeeping, tier benefits, restore club-only experiences, align sponsors, reward members consistently, and communicate relentlessly.
• Do not chase raw awareness: Retention and brand-community fit matter more than mercenary KOL campaigns.
• Ethos is shipping: From reputation scores and listings to Broker and bounties/slashing, Ethos is building social infrastructure to make trust and accountability actionable.
• Practical utility: Ethos can help protocols fight spam, quantify reputation, and integrate trust signals into rewards, credit, lending, and marketplaces.
• Action items:
  • Communities: Audit your membership value; plan strict gating and tiered experiences; appoint a membership director; build-in-public comms.
  • Builders: Consider integrating Ethos scores and reviews; leverage Broker for hiring and bounties; use slashing judiciously with evidence.
  • Listeners: If interested in Ethos, request an invite with your ETH address; play Death Fun via the referral link if you want a shot at the $1,000 prize (only if you can afford the $20).