STOCK MARKET TALK

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Stocks On Spaces
@StocksOnSpacesJan 14, 2026

The Spaces covered a Green Day ahead of Thanksgiving, with hosts and guests sharing both market views and gratitude. Evan opened with index performance and holiday context; Brian Lund emphasized balancing financial pursuits with quality of life. Mike framed the session as a typical pre-holiday melt-up, citing banks and small caps (IWM) strength, and urged caution about shorting into year-end. Wilkie discussed buying large-cap tech at key moving averages (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta), strong healthcare/value trades (Biogen, Amgen, Regeneron), and 2026 positioning ideas (Rivian mass-market EV, Intuitive Surgical). Stock Talk introduced One Stop Systems (OSS) as a high-growth, low-debt, multi-theme small cap in rugged edge AI and defense, adding it to a data-center infrastructure basket (Enersys, Amkor, Viavi). Logical highlighted breadth thrust, rapid SPY reclaim of the 50-day, and favoring quality names in a bull trend while remaining nimble. A deep crypto segment debated public vs private chains, tokenization, L2s (Base), and ETH issuance mechanics, with practical examples (USDC, JP Morgan’s Onyx, Robinhood building an Ethereum L2). The group also noted retail strength (ANF, URBN), an AI’s secular impact on margins and jobs, and a Campbell Soup executive scandal.

Stocks on Spaces — Pre-Thanksgiving Market, Trades, OSS Deep Dive, Crypto Tokenization, and AI's Economic Trajectory

Participants and Roles

  • Evan (Host, Wolf team): Moderates, market color, keeps flow and prompts deep dives.
  • Brian Lund: Offers a Thanksgiving reflection on balance, purpose of wealth, and quality of life.
  • Mike: Regular panelist; short-term trading color, holiday tape expectations, near-term market triggers.
  • Wilkie: Trader; mean-reversion and value tilt, healthcare and select retail; risk management into year-end.
  • Stock Talk: Portfolio manager/analyst; technical structure view, new position deep dive in One Stop Systems (OSS), and broader “winner-agnostic” AI picks.
  • Logical: Technical and macro-breadth analyst; strongly risk-on, positioning and sector breadth insights; practical AI usage and Ethereum tokenization thesis.
  • Michael: Crypto-focused contributor; mechanics and adoption of stablecoins, public liquidity on decentralized networks.
  • Additional co-host (unnamed): Technical confirmations, macro takes, and crypto skepticism on ETH issuance mechanics; provides comparative performance stats.

Market Backdrop and Sentiment

  • Indices and ETFs: Broad green day. QQQ up ~1.1%, VOO ~0.9%, S&P 100 ~0.9%; Evan’s ETF portfolio up ~1%. Mega caps led early, but banks and small caps (IWM) showed outsized strength.
  • Crypto: Recently lagged, then recovered intraday; Bitcoin/Ethereum strength into the close, both defending and recapturing key monthly EMAs.
  • Technical context:
    • Stock Talk: The last three sessions produced “structure-repairing” candles; SPY reclaimed the 50-day MA with strong follow-through, not typical of a weak market. Stay nimble during chop; if SPY loses the 50-day next week, reassess (re-add hedges or de-risk).
    • Logical: Breadth thrust building (similar to April’s signal). Clear head-and-shoulders fakeout last week, quick reclaim from the 100-day on volume—suggests a shakeout and resumption. Weekly 21 EMA tapped and monthly 6 EMA held; indexes regaining strength with breadth expansion.
    • Mike: Typical pre-holiday melt-up; banks strong, IWM “raging.” Not trading Friday’s half-session; watch Monday for sellers and whether crypto bounce sustains. If sellers don’t return and crypto holds, “game on” for new highs.
  • Macro narrative:
    • Rate expectations: Logical sees rising rate-cut odds, benign jobs/PPI data reinforcing a non-recessionary backdrop. Stock Talk notes February’s tariff tantrum was fundamentally different; current action looks more constructive.
    • Flows & positioning: Logical highlights underperformance among active managers—likely forced year-end chase if breadth turns up. Options flow (selling in-the-money puts, buying call spreads in mega caps) suggests institutional dip-buying lines in the sand.

Thanksgiving Reflection (Brian Lund)

  • Message of balance: Markets are for building freedom—family, causes, future—but maintain quality of life. If holiday stress hinges on Friday’s open, reconsider the balance. Gratitude for the Spaces format as a place to think aloud and refine views.

Trades, Positioning, and Sector Notes

  • Mike:
    • Trades: Bought 1,000 shares of NDLA (overnight), scaled out pre- and post-open; bought/sold NVDA Dec $180 calls; traded HOOD.
    • Sector view: Banks and IWM leading; avoid shorts into year-end until confirmed.
  • Wilkie:
    • Mean-reversion buys: Microsoft ~200-day undercut/reclaim; Amazon at the 200-day; Meta ~100-week (was flat on year at entry). Trimmed into strength.
    • Value healthcare: Long/trimmed positions in Biogen, Amgen, Regeneron—strong off lows; sees potential reset after large moves.
    • December approach: Avoid overly levered positions given short holiday week and options decay; gauge shallowness of next pullback, then re-engage if support holds.
    • Retail: Still holds AEO; KSS from single digits, but trimmed to ~1/3 of original size.
    • Crypto levered ideas: Took a shot in a TRX 2x MSTR (MSTU) product around $1 for asymmetric upside; banter around BMNR/BMNU and 200-day undercut/reclaim as a speculative angle.
  • Retail and consumer beats:
    • Logical: Big moves in Abercrombie & Fitch (+37%) and Urban Outfitters (+13%); XRT ripping—hard to square with imminent recession narratives. Merck (boomer healthcare) continues higher.
    • Warby Parker: Choppy; some took profits, then stock rebounded; emblematic of broader retail volatility.
  • Biotech/Healthcare breadth:
    • Logical: XBI pressing multi-year highs (calls them “all-time” functionally), XLV recently at ATHs—held long healthcare strength during the drawdown.

Campbell Soup (CPB) Controversy

  • A leaked audio of a CPB VP (named in coverage as Martin Valley) making racist remarks and disparaging products (including comments about bioengineered/3D-printed meat) led to firing. Panel notes the reputational risk, but also the “illusion of choice” mitigation—large consumer conglomerates can buffer brand damage via portfolio breadth (e.g., Rao’s, Cape Cod chips, Chunky Soup under Campbell umbrella).

Deep Dive: One Stop Systems (OSS)

  • Stock Talk’s new add (bought ~4.71 intraday; moved ~+30%)
  • Thesis:
    • Business pivot: From lower-margin “clean room” data-center servers to higher-margin ruggedized, transportable AI compute for harsh environments.
    • Multi-theme exposure: Defense/national security (mission computers for vehicles, aircraft, drones, subsea), autonomous vehicles (partnership with Embark for on-truck inference), telecom (multi-million rugged server program with an unnamed Fortune 50 provider testing across 100+ cities), mining, medical imaging, oil & gas.
    • Financials: ~37–43% YoY revenue growth recent quarter; gross margins improving from ~10–20% into ~30–40%; EPS inflecting positive after two bad quarters last year.
    • Balance sheet: Minimal leverage (lease liabilities ~3M; low debt), sub-200M market cap pre-rip (now ~200M), trading roughly ~2x sales despite cross-theme tailwinds.
    • Competitive landscape: Mercury Systems (MRCY) and Curtiss-Wright (CW) in rugged compute; OSS targets specialized, lower-volume niches not covered by mega players.
    • Catalysts: Multi-year DOD contracts; US Navy data storage for long-range ISR aircraft (~$5M contract); fortune 50 telecom testing real-time 5G RF analysis. Earnings not due until March—gives runway for news/speculation.
  • Portfolio context: Joins Stock Talk’s data-center infrastructure basket alongside Enersys (ENS), Viavi (VIAV), and Amkor (AMKR). He emphasizes “winner-agnostic” AI enablers: energy storage (ENS), high-end chip packaging (AMKR), and network testing (VIAV; 800G/1.6T testing leadership; integration of OSP to expand capabilities).
  • Risk framing: Small-cap volatility—expects +30% days and -10% days; size appropriately; he remains long and views OSS as among the most compelling small caps given cross-thematic relevance.

Broader AI Theme: Enablers vs. Frontline OEMs

  • Stock Talk:
    • Current winners found: GPU OEMs and power producers are bid; silicon photonics leaders discovered.
    • Next wave: Enablers with reasonable valuations and tangible near-term earnings growth—ENS (storage across data center and defense), AMKR (packaging across GPU/TPU/ASICs), VIAV (800G/1.6T testing; telco upgrade cycle; “winner-agnostic”).
    • Large-cap enablers: Nokia’s chart/base looks superb; partnership mentions (e.g., NVDA) illustrate mainstream picks-and-shovels relevance.

Crypto and Tokenization: Adoption, Mechanics, and Debate

  • Market action:
    • Logical & Stock Talk: BTC/Eth recaptured/defended 21-month EMA; crypto’s midday strength supported broader “risk-on” tone. Crypto remains one big risk trade proxy.
  • Tokenization and rails:
    • Logical: Ethereum is the programmable layer; layer-2s (e.g., Coinbase’s Base) cut fees/scale throughput; stablecoins (USDC) backed by U.S. Treasuries—top-15 holder globally—tie crypto rails to the U.S. dollar and policy interests.
    • Michael: Stablecoin settlement volumes rival/ exceed Visa/Mastercard across periods; public liquidity pools on-chain create novel markets (AMMs, collateralized lending), not just “replacement” volumes. Starlink reportedly uses USDC cross-border for operational efficiency.
    • Institutional posture: JP Morgan’s Onyx is a private, permissioned chain (Ethereum-like code), illustrating big-bank preference to build internal rails. Debate on whether G-SIBs will build proprietary chains vs. public L2s; likely both grow in tandem. Panel notes reports of enterprises exploring/building on Ethereum (e.g., Robinhood Layer-2 “Robin Chain” for RWAs; Deutsche Bank L2), plus brands (Adidas, Sony, PayPal, Shopify) integrating Ethereum-linked functionality. These were presented as viewpoints and examples discussed by the panel, not uniformly verified.
  • Ethereum mechanics debate:
    • Co-host’s skepticism: Proof-of-stake issuance and fee-burn aim to revert net issuance to equilibrium, questioning whether higher network usage necessarily raises ETH price long-run.
    • Counterpoints (Logical/Michael): Demand can still outpace effective issuance; liquidity pools lock native assets; rising adoption can create scarcity and upward pressure even if issuance/burn mechanisms target stability over time.

AI’s Economic Trajectory and Labor

  • Stock Talk and Logical:
    • Adoption curve: LLM quality and capability have risen parabolically. Gemini 3 (image and text) and GPT-4.1/5.1-like models materially improve speed and accuracy of complex tasks—practical boosts from “weeks” to “days” or “hours.”
    • Enterprise impact: Near-term (3–5 years) AI is an accelerant/tool; medium-term robotics + AI may replace large swaths of repetitive labor and many information-centric functions (accounting, logistics, warehouse operations, transportation). Examples: KPMG’s $2B automated accounting effort; rapid Waymo/Tesla robotaxi progress.
    • Policy/economy: David Sacks’ point—AI investment now a major share of GDP; markets need big spenders (Microsoft, Oracle, meta, etc.) to stay strong or GDP suffers. Over time, the historical correlation of “full employment” with growth may weaken as AI/automation boosts output with fewer humans. Universal Basic Income (UBI) was mentioned by Logical half-jokingly as a plausible policy endpoint if displacement broadens.
    • Infrastructure: The largest AI data center projects announced (U.S., Europe, Asia, Middle East) are still coming online; the step-function in training/inference capacity likely produces another leap in model capabilities and real-world robotics.

Technical Roadmap and Risk Controls

  • Stock Talk:
    • If SPY loses the 50-day MA next week on heavy selling (e.g., -3% or worse), pivot bias, re-hedge, and de-gross. Otherwise, “structure repaired” remains the operating assumption.
    • He remains 14 positions long, no hedges; portfolio near prior all-time highs (~497% YTD as of session end).
  • Logical:
    • 137% net long via margin; confident breadth thrust; expects modest pullbacks to the 50-day/21 EMA to hold and set higher lows, then resume towards highs.

Highlights and Key Takeaways

  • Breadth and banks/small caps signal healthier risk-on under the hood versus the prior few weeks’ weakness.
  • If crypto and risk proxies continue participating and SPY holds the 50-day, year-end chase looks probable; watch Monday for sellers’ return.
  • Stock Talk’s OSS deep dive adds a cross-thematic, rugged AI edge-compute small cap with improving margins, specialized contracts, and potential rerating catalysts.
  • “Winner-agnostic” AI enablers—energy storage (ENS), high-end packaging (AMKR), and network testing (VIAV)—offer reasonable valuations and tangible earnings growth amid the AI buildout.
  • Tokenization adoption: Expect both private permissioned chains (G-SIBs) and public L2 ecosystems (ETH) to expand; stablecoin settlement is already massive. Debate persists on whether ETH mechanics cap price appreciation from usage; practical adoption and liquidity locking may still drive scarcity.
  • AI’s labor impact: Productivity gains are immediate (panelists cite real work shifts from weeks to hours); medium-term, robotics + AI could structurally shift employment needs, reinforcing a secular tech bull case and challenging traditional macro relationships.

Closing Notes

  • Thanksgiving banter: Turkey vs. ham; cranberry sauce split decision; turducken and regional fare (fried alligator) get honorable mentions.
  • Housekeeping: Friday half-day session; host expresses gratitude to the audience and encourages following speakers. Stock Talk offered a limited-time first-month discount for his research community, citing transparency and performance.