STOCK MARKET TALK

StocksOnSpaces avatar
Stocks On Spaces
@StocksOnSpacesJan 21, 2026

The Spaces opened with Evan framing a Wednesday market reversal sparked by President Trump’s Truth Social post announcing a Greenland/Arctic framework and a pause on scheduled tariffs. Options Mike flagged risk-on signals (bond rally, VIX inside Bollinger bands) yet stressed SPY needed to reclaim short-term moving averages. A debate on early earnings saw Monitor argue results and FY26 guidance are broadly fine (Netflix’s buyback suspension the main negative), while Mike noted banks’ mixed reactions hinged on guidance. Brian characterized Trump’s pattern as issuing a “green light” for markets and urged focusing on liquidity over macro. Larry highlighted strong breadth (small caps and equal-weight S&P near ATHs) with rotation toward healthcare, industrials, energy, and transports; mega-cap tech looked weak but should hold. Defense/aerospace took center stage with detailed B-21 Raider production progress and funding for major Northrop programs. Stock Talk emphasized thematic, medium/long-term positioning, disciplined leverage/options, and avoiding chasing, while Urkel described dip-buy swing tactics and crypto basing. Later, Adam Patty outlined Vista Shares’ AI infrastructure (AIS) and power infrastructure (POW) ETFs built via a bill-of-materials method, focusing on cooling/power (about a third of data center cost) and grid transmission/distribution (~half of capex), plus Target-15 income ETFs (OMAH, ACKY, DRKY, S100).

Turnaround Wednesday: Markets, tariffs, breadth, defense, AI infrastructure, and income ETFs

Participants and roles

  • Evan (host): opens, moderates, reads headlines, frames topics.
  • Options Mike (Mike): day-to-day market technician; SPY levels, VIX/Bollinger context, bonds, risk signals.
  • Stock Talk (Stock Talk): thematic stock picker; portfolio/process philosophy; sector rotation; space/satellite, crypto views.
  • Siva (Monitor): earnings wrap; defense/aerospace and government programs; ETF methodology Q&A.
  • Brian: macro framing; “green light” pattern under Trump; generational wealth window; momentum options strategy inspired by Dan Zanger.
  • Urkel: swing/day trader; dip-buying system, key levels; crypto base-building view; volatility tactics.
  • Logical: risk management; hedging around the 50-day; breadth vs mega-cap tech discussion.
  • Larry: market regime analysis; small vs large cap rotation; healthcare/industrials/transports/energy; rate-of-change follow-through.
  • Adam Patty (Vista Shares): AIS (AI Infrastructure), POW (Power Infrastructure), Target 15 suite (OMA H/ACKY/DRKY), and S100 (SIO) distribution ETF.

Market-moving headline: Trump’s Greenland framework and tariff pause

  • Evan reads Trump’s Truth Social post: a “framework of a future deal” regarding Greenland/Arctic; based on a productive meeting with NATO SecGen Mark Rutte; tariffs previously scheduled to go into effect will not be imposed.
  • Immediate reaction: indices reversed higher; host’s individual portfolio +2.5–2.8%; ETF portfolio +1.5%; SPY moved back toward short-term moving averages amid a late-session fade but well off lows.
  • Options Mike:
    • SPY ATH ~$609; market ~$10 “handles” below.
    • Bonds reversed sharply from “looking like death” to green; VIX fell back inside Bollinger Bands—typically a risk-on signal.
    • Key for the tape: reclaim the 8- and 21-day EMAs and avoid a fade into the close to maintain risk-on.
  • Stock Talk:
    • Emphasizes reclaiming 9/21 EMAs on SPX/SPY for durable bull structure; soft rejection intraday—another green day could fix it.
    • Notes his focus on individual leaders; if indexes hold above 50/100-day MAs, it facilitates stock-level traction.
  • Brian: frames this as Trump’s familiar “green light” pattern—market fears after brash rhetoric, then a de-escalation cue and a rally.
  • Siva (Monitor) adds real-time Trump comments (Iran, bomber orders) and stresses the role of NATO SecGen Mark Rutte in brokering de-escalation.

Earnings season: early read

  • Siva (Monitor):
    • Earnings largely “as expected” to slightly above; guidance pattern consistent with a bullish 2026 full-year setup with lighter 1H and stronger 2H.
    • Netflix: suspension of buybacks negative (linked to content/acquisition efforts); price context matters; fundamentally not ideal to stop buybacks here.
    • Johnson & Johnson: sold off on the print but was a solid beat-and-raise; managing well despite government drug price controls; oncology franchise growing while some IP cliffs approach.
    • Financials: much was pre-priced; big runs limit incremental upside on prints.
  • Options Mike: more cautious on guidance quality across sectors; banks mixed (GS/MS to ATHs vs other majors down); Netflix near-term guide down and buyback suspension.
  • Evan: reminds that stock price reactions and earnings beats/guidance aren’t always aligned.

Breadth, regime, and risk management

  • Logical:
    • Hedged when SPY broke below the 50-day; removed hedges on reclaim attempts.
    • Reduced lower-conviction names on the pop; remains very net long but keeps exposure sized prudently if below key MAs.
    • Notes mega-cap tech weakness (Meta/Amazon/Microsoft) risks dragging QQQ/S&P; best-case is they hold flat-to-slightly-up while breadth persists in small/mid caps.
    • Base case for the year: strong Q1/H1, possible Q2 correction, then a year-end rip.
  • Larry:
    • Ratio of small caps vs large caps (IWM/IWB) shows daily RSI in the 80s (strong momentum). Equal-weight S&P (RSP) and small caps near/all-time highs—market of stocks is strong even if cap-weighted indices mask it.
    • Healthcare (XLV) looks great across cap scales; biotechs strong (IBB bull-flag behavior). Industrials led by aerospace/defense still constructive; transports solid; energy outperformance has implications.
    • One-day rate-of-change framework: a >1% down day followed by >1% up day historically sets up constructive follow-through (seen in October and again here).
  • Stock Talk and Larry agree: underneath the surface, many sectors (industrials, materials, energy, healthcare) look terrific. Strong stocks tend to get stronger; avoid buying “cheap” underperformers solely for valuation—trend strength matters.

Defense and aerospace: B-21 Raider, Sentinel, and Northrop

  • Siva (Monitor):
    • Confirms B‑21 Raider (Northrop) is in low-rate initial production (LRIP), not just prototype; multiple aircraft built/flying; LRIP phases progressing.
    • Program target has long circulated at ~100 bombers; whispered need-based numbers range 135–180; production rate scaling (goal ~two every three months).
    • Unit cost rumor just under ~$540M with potential reductions as LRIP phases advance; lessons learned from B‑2’s limited production (and high maintenance costs) applied.
    • Confirms House reconciliation funding for Sentinel (GBSD) and B‑21 on consecutive days—supportive for Northrop’s mega programs.
  • Implication: aerospace/defense cycle remains robust beyond “sexy” platforms; industrial infrastructure suppliers have been multi-baggers.

Trading at the edges: Urkel’s swing/day tactics and crypto

  • Urkel:
    • Market’s personality: stretches into “make-or-break” supports amid volatility, then catapults; uses mid-term trend holds for dip-buys.
    • Swing trader by heart; accumulates around consolidation zones or key supports; opportunistic day/overnight trades on volatility; trims/adds methodically to compound.
    • Watching high beta names and core data center plays; accumulating where breakout/setup quality aligns (mentions CoreWeave interest as an ecosystem play; monitoring/trimming “Nebias” around $90–$100—context suggests NVDA trimming around round numbers).
    • Crypto: BTC/ETH basing near 0.618 fib supports for months; expects bases to precede significant moves; positive on regulatory clarity (Clarity Act) and Trump’s pro-crypto positioning vs China.
    • Comfortable with VIX spikes—volatility breeds opportunity, as long as mid-term trend holds.

Apple AI and wearables: next compute form factor

  • Stock Talk:
    • Wearables likely to bifurcate to a pin and/or glasses as next-gen AI inference devices; phones too complex and power-hungry for AI-first use cases.
    • Vision Pro critique: heavy, short battery life (external pack), underdeveloped app ecosystem; success requires lightweight, socially acceptable form factor and deep developer ecosystem a year pre-release.
    • Siri revamp: rumors pivot toward partnering with Gemini rather than ChatGPT; long overdue catch-up. Apple seems less intent on building LLM entirely in-house.
    • Consumer inertia is the near-term barrier—recalls landline-to-cell transition as precedent for rapid behavioral shifts once value is clear.

Space and satellites: Blue Origin vs incumbents; how to play

  • Evan reports Bezos/Blue Origin plans to launch ~5,100 LEO satellites for connectivity.
  • Stock Talk:
    • Sector had a soft day despite news; not currently exposed.
    • Prefers cheaper LEO alternatives vs frothy zero-revenue/multi-billion names; valuation discipline due to propensity for 40–70% drawdowns in 2 weeks on hype.
    • Buyout thesis: other LEO operators (e.g., Iridium, Gilat) are comparatively cheap due to competitive overhang from SpaceX/Amazon; attractive for consolidation.

Bitcoin, quantum, and the risk-on proxy

  • Stock Talk:
    • Bitcoin weekly chart is the cleanest: consolidating along the 100-week MA ($87K) with 20-week overhead ($101K). Daily still “ugly”; needs sustained holds on pumps.
    • Above ~$103–104K, structure looks good across timeframes; below 100-week on weekly close would be bearish.
    • Uses BTC mainly as a risk-on/off indicator; notes that institutionalization has increased correlation and chop.
    • Observes a negative correlation between “quantum stocks up” days and crypto—market pricing some quantum-security risk noise.

Stock Talk’s portfolio philosophy, positioning, and process

  • Process:
    • Thematic, medium/long-term swings with size and selective leverage; avoid chasing; buy retests/resets; weekly structure checks; cut on structural breaks.
    • Keeps <20 positions to avoid “scramble-headed” monitoring; runs equities plus options overlays for many names.
    • Q1 often ramps positions; Q3/Q4 prunes after earnings reveal execution vs thesis.
  • Performance:
    • YTD +46.4% vs SPX +0.56% (~100x outperformance) in first 21 trading days; clicked ~4–5 buttons to achieve it—emphasizes that hyperactive scalping isn’t required.
    • Uses margin opportunistically (e.g., 104–130% net long last year) once multi-year outperformance validates skill; cautions newcomers to avoid naked short-term options and leverage.
  • Guidance:
    • If you can’t do deep research or keep conviction through volatility, buy the S&P 500 (VOO) and enjoy life; stock-picking only makes sense if you dramatically outperform net of taxes.
    • The market tells you if you’re good; ego doesn’t.

Greenland framework: minerals, security, and process over posture

  • Evan and Stock Talk relay follow-up headlines: framework could involve “small pockets of land” for the US; emphasis appears on strategic/critical minerals and security in the Arctic.
  • Stock Talk:
    • Credits NATO SecGen Mark Rutte’s diplomatic approach; contrasts with European leaders who react combatively to Trump’s rhetoric, which invites escalation.
    • Suggests Trump’s aim is to bring parties to the table using threats as inducements, not necessarily to follow through on punitive measures; February 1 tariffs paused.

Vista Shares deep-dive: AIS, POW, and Target 15 distribution ETFs

  • Adam Patty explains the methodology and product set.
  • AI Infrastructure (AIS):
    • Patent-pending Bill of Materials (BoM) methodology maps the entire data center supply chain and assigns weights to segments by share of build cost and profit pools.
    • Power & cooling is ~one-third of AI data center build cost—critical segment; then servers/IT networking, storage, backup/disaster recovery, racks/cable management.
    • Focus on companies with ≥~30% of revenue tied to AI projects or accelerating toward that threshold; actively overseen by a high-caliber investment committee:
      • John McNeill (ex-President, Tesla; Vice Chair of GM autonomous; current GM board).
      • Sunny Madra (ex-President, Groq; now leads Nvidia hardware post-acquisition).
      • Prof. Robert Whitelaw (Chair of Finance, NYU Stern).
    • Global scope: ~50% ex-US; uses local listings when appropriate.
  • Power Infrastructure (POW):
    • The US doesn’t have a generation problem; we have a transmission/distribution (T&D) bottleneck.
    • Capex flows: ~10–15% to generation, ~50% to T&D (transformers, switchgear, cabling, line work). Focus on the “boring middle” where profits accrue.
    • Names include Prismian (cabling), Hubble, Siemens, Delta, and Quanta (PWR) for line engineering/build-outs; monitors policy shifts (e.g., hyperscalers installing on-site generation due to grid limits).
    • Active overlay adapts segment weights and constituents as technology and policy evolve.
  • Target 15 Distribution ETFs (monthly pay ~1.25% aiming 15% annual; have not missed a month since inception):
    • OMAH (Berkshire-inspired), ACKY (Ackman-inspired), DRKY (Druckenmiller-inspired): different manager styles to diversify income sources; DRKY strength noted early in year (biotech/e-commerce exposures among holdings).
    • S100 (ticker SIO): S&P 100 distribution ETF (blue chip core); ~59 bps fee; higher income target vs many peers. First payout in December; next distribution Tuesday; declaration Friday (buy by Friday to receive Tuesday distribution).
  • Methodology adaptability:
    • The BoM and segment weightings evolve across the supercycle lifecycle (AI, electrification, space, biotech, robotics), adding/removing supply chains and reweighting as profit pools shift.

Key takeaways and highlights

  • Tariff pause tied to a Greenland/Arctic framework catalyzed a sharp intraday reversal; bonds/VIX corroborated a risk-on tone; breadth remained strong.
  • Earnings so far largely on plan with a familiar guide-down-1H/guide-up-2H cadence; price action often reflects pre-pricing rather than prints.
  • Breadth leadership continues in small/mid caps, healthcare, industrials/defense, energy, materials; mega-cap tech can lag as long as it doesn’t break and drag.
  • Defense cycle remains powerful: B‑21 Raider LRIP, Sentinel funding—supportive of Northrop and the broader A&D supply chain.
  • Crypto basing at key fibs; weekly BTC posture improving but daily needs work; institutionalization increases correlation/chop.
  • Strategy matters: conviction-driven thematic swings with prudent leverage beat hyperactive scalping; if you can’t sustain outperformance after-tax, use broad market ETFs.
  • AI/Data Center build-out: power & cooling and T&D are major profit pools often overlooked; AIS and POW target those supply-chain segments using a patent-pending BoM and global scope.
  • Income seekers: Target 15 monthly distribution ETFs (OMA H/ACKY/DRKY/SIO) provide structured payouts with diversified style exposures; check declaration/payout schedules.

Actionable levels/structures discussed

  • SPY: reclaiming 8/21-day EMAs for durable risk-on; ATH ~609; monitor 50-day breaks/reclaims.
  • VIX: back inside Bollinger Bands—typically risk-on.
  • BTC: weekly hold above 100-week MA (~$87K); watch for sustained push/hold above ~$103–104K for all-timeframe alignment.

Open questions

  • Greenland framework details: scope of “small pockets of land,” specific mineral/security arrangements, Denmark/Greenland buy-in, NATO footprint.
  • Apple’s AI stack: whether Gemini partnership is confirmed; timeline for truly wearable AI-first devices.
  • Data center power constraints: pace of T&D fixes vs hyperscaler on-site generation; transformer/switchgear supply constraints; permitting bottlenecks.