Monday's weekly space.. Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, war & co

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MENA UNCENSORED
@MENAUncensoredNov 4, 2025

The Spaces reviewed fast-evolving conflict dynamics across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, blending field updates with policy analysis. Host Leila outlined a de facto fragmentation of Syria, alleged new tracks between Abu Mohammad al‑Julani and US/Israeli interlocutors, and refuted reports of increased Russian deployment, asserting Moscow has drawn down and repositioned toward the southern Mediterranean. On Lebanon, speakers warned of attempted assassinations and controlled escalation through winter, criticized claims of imminent full-scale war, and said the Pope’s planned visit remains on schedule despite rumor pressure. Gaza reporters Shamin and Summer Zanin detailed a severe aid choke: from Oct 10–31, 3,203 trucks entered (639 commercial; 2,564 aid; 84 fuel; 81 gas), with aid skewed to carbs/sugar, reinforcing malnutrition while proteins are largely blocked; they cited ongoing bombardment, equipment bans, and thousands still under rubble. Statistics cited for post‑ceasefire violations included thousands of Israeli breaches and hundreds of Lebanese casualties. Speakers argued the West Bank is seeing escalating land seizures and arrests while global media fixates elsewhere (e.g., Sudan). Additional threads covered alleged platform suppression on X, US legal contradictions (due process, Leahy Law), and an IRGC account of Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination method that prompted debate over Qatari involvement.

Session Overview and Participants

Context

  • Host Leila opened the space after a delay due to phone battery issues and noted platform glitches and suspected attacks on the space. She repeatedly asked participants to retweet and share to counter suppression.
  • The conversation covered Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, Russia's posture in Syria, alleged ceasefire breaches, humanitarian aid logistics and nutritional engineering, legal/due-process concerns, media/censorship issues (especially on X/Twitter), and risks around the Pope's planned visit to Lebanon.

Participants and roles

  • Leila (Host; Mina Uncensored): Moderator and principal analyst throughout; provided Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and media/censorship assessments; shared statistics and quoted sources.
  • Shamin (also rendered Shemin): Contributor providing daily Gaza updates; addressed aid truck realities and on-the-ground humanitarian needs.
  • Samer Zanin (accredited reporter in Gaza; also referenced as Sam Erzanin / Sir Danny in the transcript): Provided detailed counts on aid and commercial trucks entering Gaza and observations on bombardment.
  • NY (Palestinian-American; Mina Uncensored team): Focused on U.S. legal frameworks, due process issues, and critiques of the "Zionist entity"; discussed censorship tactics and broader geopolitical patterns.
  • Karim: Commented on U.S. policy contradictions (Leahy Law, weapons shipments), British legal precedents, and media propaganda.
  • Sean: Asked questions regarding aid safety/poisoning, and risks around the Pope's visit; provided supportive closing remarks.
  • TJ Wilson: Drew historical parallels from British internment and Bloody Sunday; commented on Vatican and Western roles; shared Robert Fisk references.
  • Additional names mentioned (not speakers in this recording): Bella, Kevin, William, Nina (team), Queen Rania, Dr. Munir Bush (Gaza hospital official), Dr. Adnan Bush (orthopedics), Dr. Hassan al-Safiya (doctor allegedly detained), Noam Chomsky, Shlomo Sand, Thomas Friedman, Robert Fisk.

Syria: Territorial Mapping, Governance, and Diplomatic Tracks

De facto divisions (Leila’s mapping)

  • Northeast: Described as "self-governed areas" which Leila asserts "do not have the Kurds" (contrary to common outside characterizations).
  • Northwest: "In the hands of the Russians."
  • South: "In the hands of the Israelis."
  • East (Palmyra to al-Bukamal, eastern Syria): "In the hands of the Americans."
  • West: "Self-governed areas" believed to be reserved "for the minorities going forward."
  • Southwest (Damascus, Homs, Hama): Under the remaining central authority footprint.

Leila frames these zones as multiple failed states or self-governed fragments.

Leadership and external pressure

  • Leila repeatedly referred to "Julani" (leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) as a "served, appointed president" of Syria—her characterization is that he is presented to speak about Syria broadly yet cannot rule outside specific areas due to American/European demands, allegedly in favor of Israeli interests.

Imminent meeting and Saudi investment context

  • Leila stated there is an upcoming meeting between the "Syrian Julani regime" and Israeli occupation forces, with American/Israeli orchestration, timing/location unannounced but "will happen no matter what."
  • Julani reportedly visited Saudi Arabia during the annual investment forum, engaging with representatives from other GCC states. Leila described a shift from Gulf countries paying to "burn Syria down" to now playing "angel investor," planning reconstruction financing.

Washington track

  • Leila: Julani expected in Washington; Americans stated they want the Damascus regime to sign a peace agreement and a security agreement with Israel—if peace is delayed, a security deal could start first. She assessed imminent risk around these discussions including Israeli involvement.

Russian posture in Syria

  • Leila countered widespread media reports: claims of increased Russian presence are "bogus." She asserted:
    • Russia has significantly decreased personnel in Syria over the past 11 months.
    • They are repositioning toward the southern Mediterranean and North Africa (e.g., Libya), shifting from eastern to southern Mediterranean focus.
    • Hmeimim base activity and Russian presence are "significantly diminished," with no plans to increase troops for now.
    • Julani’s visits (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc.) have "nothing to do" with Russia’s decision to keep troop levels low.

Lebanon: War Risk, Ceasefire Breaches, Agriculture Damage, and Pope’s Visit

War phase timing and tactics (Leila)

  • Reports of imminent assassinations or mobile explosions in Lebanon attributed to Israeli occupation forces.
  • Leila did not expect a fully-fledged war during winter; any escalation likely late November. If minimal retaliation occurs, Israel may continue calibrated escalations rather than trigger total war.

Ceasefire breaches and casualties

  • Leila reported sustained Israeli violations since the "cessation of hostilities" came into effect at 4 a.m. on November 27, 2024:
    • Total breaches: 5,163
    • Land: 2,150
    • Air: 2,850
    • Maritime: 163
    • Resulting casualties in Lebanon: 309 killed ("martyrs"), 598 injured.
  • She emphasized daily Israeli strikes killing Lebanese civilians (targeted vehicles, homes, street attacks) and questioned why the resistance does not retaliate—arguing they are regrouping, restocking, planning next-stage warfare (intelligence-driven, proxy theatres), while Israel leverages extensive allied intel.

Agricultural devastation

  • Leila alleged broad use of white phosphorus and other chemical agents including Agent Orange across South Lebanon, rendering soils largely unusable and creating a looming food security crisis.

The Pope’s planned visit to Lebanon

  • Despite rumors, Leila said the visit remains on schedule; attempts to delay it "won’t work." Security apparatus is working around the clock.
  • Sean asked about false-flag risks and Western misinterpretation; Leila’s analysis:
    • A false flag would likely be framed against Muslim groups (e.g., al-Qaeda/Julani-aligned), not Hezbollah, which historically has had no conflict with the papacy.
    • She argued an attack would not strategically benefit Israel; rather, it could backfire, reducing their leverage and potentially inflaming regional backlash. U.S. direct intervention risks civil war and generating multiple unpredictable armed actors—unfavorable to Israeli/U.S. equities.

U.S. Embassy in Lebanon

  • Leila referenced her 2021 interview, alleging the embassy compound in Aukar functions like a "Guantanamo" with underground tunnels and detention/torture facilities; claimed her prior tweets documenting Israeli attacks in South Lebanon have been gradually removed from X.

Gaza: Aid Access, Nutrition Engineering, Casualties, and Ongoing Violations

Aid entry and truck counts

  • Shamin: "Only about 20%" of aid goods are allowed into Gaza; trucks shown entering from Egypt often stall before distribution inside Gaza. Essentials (meat, chicken, fish), tents, tarpaulins are frequently denied; daily demolition persists.
  • Samer Zanin data (Oct 10–31): 3,203 trucks entered Gaza
    • 639 commercial trucks
    • 2,564 aid trucks
    • Of the aid: 84 fuel (diesel) trucks, 81 gas trucks
  • Leila and Shamin stressed these volumes are far below agreed baselines (Leila: ~24% of what should have entered) and predominantly "carbs and sugars," with little to no protein, vegetables, or fresh nutritious items.
    • Frozen chicken reportedly sells at about $25 per bird—unaffordable for most amid mass unemployment and mass displacement.

"Engineered famine" via carbohydrate-heavy aid (Leila)

  • Leila reiterated previously published analyses: allowing mainly carbs induces a low-protein, high-calorie diet that triggers muscle catabolism and immune dysfunction; consequences appear over 9–24 months—permanent disability and elevated mortality.
  • She emphasized claims that some meat was corrupt or overly preserved (canned), adding to health risks.

Excavation and rubble

  • Leila: Since the ceasefire period, 238 Palestinians killed, 600 injured; approximately 510 bodies pulled from rubble; an estimated 10,000+ bodies remain under debris.
  • She stated Israel bans entrance of bulldozers and excavation equipment, forcing bare-hand efforts that cannot cope with scale.

Ongoing attacks and specific incidents

  • Leila: Israeli strikes continue nightly in eastern Gaza; attacks on the Old City area near Shujaiya; victims include infants.
  • Samer shared video evidence of detonations resembling "mini nuclear bombs" (Leila described them as vacuum bombs creating shock and sound waves with 5–15 km impact radius) and asserted Israel is testing new ordnance.

Dr. Munir Bush’s testimony (as quoted by Leila)

  • At Nasser Hospital, reception of 45 bodies, bringing total to 270; bodies reportedly "crushed and mutilated," faces burned, and remains indicating torture; Leila condemned global inaction and noted continuing Israeli withholding of fate of medical workers abducted over the past two years, including high-profile figures like Dr. Hassan al-Safiya and the late Dr. Adnan Bush.

West Bank: Land Seizures, Detentions, Resistance Activity

  • Leila: Increasing land confiscations targeting Christian and Muslim villages; near-daily raids; mass detentions; global media redistribution of attention (e.g., Sudan) allegedly masks escalating West Bank abuses.
  • Late in the session, Leila added that resistance attacked Israeli occupation forces in Nablus within the past 48 hours, despite prior Israeli operations displacing tens of thousands in Jenin and Nablus and claiming to have dismantled resistance infrastructure.

Southern Syria (Druze Communities) and Israeli Raids

  • Leila contended Israeli occupation forces intensified raids in southern Syrian Druze areas and outskirts (rendered as "Rif Nitro" in the transcript; likely referring to the Quneitra area), conducting house-to-house searches and detentions, while attempting to frame Syrian Druze as Israeli-aligned.
  • She argued Israeli and allied proxies tried to coerce Druze dependence by allowing HTS/Julani-linked and tribal attacks on them, then offering Israeli "protection." Leila insisted Syrian Druze rejected that gambit and affirmed their Arab identity and resistance against occupiers.

Legal and Policy: Due Process, U.S. Law, and Alleged Israeli Statutes

Due process and detention

  • NY argued the "Zionist entity" passed laws allowing detention, torture, and execution of Palestinians without due process—"playing God" in determining life and death.
  • Karim added this contradicts the U.S. system’s presumption of innocence and due process; Shamin warned that a pending vote could legalize executing minors (12–18 years old), which would violate U.S. Supreme Court protections against executing children.
  • Leila reminded listeners of the U.S. Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination.

U.S. arms and Leahy Law

  • Karim cited the Leahy Law (no arms to units committing gross human rights violations) and pointed to recent shipments (nearly 600 tons of arms) to Israel despite extensive public evidence of violations.
  • Karim also highlighted U.S. government funding continuity to Israel amid domestic budget constraints, and extended the critique to wider Western complicity.

British precedent parallels

  • TJ Wilson and Karim drew parallels to British internment (1971–1975, Belfast), torture practices, and systemic impunity; recent British court acquittals (e.g., Soldier F in the 1972 Bloody Sunday events) contrasted with Israeli internal "investigations" ending in exonerations (e.g., killing of Shireen Abu Akleh).

Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: IRGC Account vs. Media Narratives

  • Leila relayed IRGC details about the assassination mechanism: a missile launched from distance entered through a window, homing in on a mobile phone signal; the bed and rug were undamaged; Haniyeh allegedly used multiple lines (Qatari and Iranian) and had been warned to be cautious.
  • Leila and NY argued that certain media accounts (e.g., submarine-based strike, or WhatsApp compromise) were misinformation; Leila claimed Mina Uncensored had correctly assessed the missile trajectory scenario early on.
  • NY accused Qatar of betrayal and aiding the assassination; Leila responded that advanced technology makes prevention difficult even for host countries, and while she did not assign treachery to Iran, NY maintained responsibility is inherent to the country where it occurred.

Media, Censorship, and Platform Dynamics

  • Leila described X/Twitter algorithm changes over the past 1.5 months as particularly invasive—pinpointing location to the millimeter, forcing re-verification, and adjusting account geo-tagging; alleged systematic deletion of older posts documenting Israeli strikes.
  • NY recommended deleting the X app and using a secure browser on VPN; Leila said she keeps the app on only one device for hosting Spaces and deletes it after each session.
  • Leila warned against following propaganda accounts (e.g., "Adam," "True seller"/"Through seller," and related networks), urging double-checking sources; she noted "Silence Serves" follows some such accounts.

Sudan/Horn of Africa: Diversions and Exploitation

  • Leila suggested global media pivots to Sudan coincide with Israel’s threats to escalate in Lebanon and Gaza, diverting attention from the West Bank.
  • NY linked exploitation and destabilization in Sudan/Horn of Africa to Israeli design and proxies (notably UAE), citing assassination, currency manipulation, and sanctions as tactics.

Intellectual References and Media Critique

  • Robert Fisk: Lauded by Leila and TJ for accurate, fearless reporting; his book "Pity the Nation" recommended; TJ shared quotes tracing U.S. missile fragments in Baghdad (2003) and vivid war depictions.
  • Thomas Friedman: Critiqued by Leila and Karim for propagandistic narratives ("From Beirut to Jerusalem"), unverifiable sourcing, and alignment with mainstream Zionist messaging; current NYT column flagged as a channel for such framing.
  • Noam Chomsky: Praised for exposing Hasbara and Zionist techniques; Leila referenced his and Shlomo Sand’s work, especially Sand’s "The Invention of the Jewish People" (challenging myths around identity and indigeneity).

Key Takeaways

  • Syria: Leila’s mapping describes a deeply fragmented sovereignty with prospective external deals (security/peace) involving Israel; Russia’s footprint is, in her view, decreasing and shifting regionally.
  • Lebanon: Sustained ceasefire breaches, civilian casualties, agricultural devastation; escalation likely calibrated rather than full-scale winter war; the Pope’s visit remains on track, but false-flag risks were debated.
  • Gaza: Aid flows far below agreed levels and overwhelmingly non-nutritious; alleged deliberate famine engineering via carb-heavy intake; excavation bans perpetuate high casualty discovery lag.
  • West Bank: Continued land seizures and detentions; resistance persists despite heavy Israeli operations.
  • Druze in southern Syria: Reported as resisting co-optation; allegations of raids and detentions by Israeli occupation forces.
  • Law and policy: Speakers allege profound due-process violations by Israel, U.S. legal contradictions (Leahy Law, weapons shipments), and Western impunity frameworks mirroring older British colonial practices.
  • Assassination narrative: IRGC account posits a precision phone-targeted missile; speakers condemned misinformation and pointed to Qatari betrayal.
  • Censorship: Host claims targeted suppression of content and intrusive platform tracking; practical advice offered (VPN, browser-only usage).
  • Media literacy: Strong emphasis on vetting sources; recommending works by Fisk, Chomsky, and Sand while cautioning against Friedman and certain social accounts.

Announcements and Support

  • Leila announced the Mina Uncensored website launch on Friday, with subscription options; it will host articles by Said Omara (Arabic and English), NY’s pieces, Shamin’s daily Gaza updates, and archives of Spaces.
  • Appeals to support accredited reporter Samer Zanin were made so he can continue on-ground reporting from Gaza.

Closing Sentiments

  • Sean and NY closed with solidarity statements for the resistance and Palestinians; Leila extended that to Lebanon and all resisting Israeli occupation. The session ended with thanks and a reminder to reconvene Friday.