BITCOIN INVESTING SECURITY | UNCHAINED

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Stocks On Spaces
@StocksOnSpacesOct 25, 2025

The Spaces covered a fast-moving blend of markets, policy, earnings, and Bitcoin custody. Jennifer Schoenberger clarified the quantum-computing headline whiplash: while some outlets floated potential equity stakes, her sourcing indicates the administration is currently exploring warrants, loans, and grants—Commerce says no equity negotiations now—though a future pivot isn’t impossible. With CPI releasing despite the shutdown (for Social Security COLA) and the Fed flying partly blind on labor data, the room expected a cautious Powell and a likely end to quantitative tightening. On equities, Honeywell, LendingClub, Gap, and mid-cap bios drew interest; Intel delivered a standout beat and a technical breakout, while Ford beat but guided to an EBITDA hit from a supplier fire. A debated segment weighed Tesla’s energy strength versus its car-margin pressure and Rivian’s autonomy ambitions within a commoditized EV landscape shaped by China’s supply chain. Warehouse automation (GXO, HLIO) emerged as a tangible near-term theme. The session closed with a detailed walkthrough of Unchained’s multi-signature custody, trading, loans, IRAs, and inheritance planning, emphasizing self-sovereignty over ETF exposure and practical action steps via consultation.

Market, Macro, Quantum headlines, Earnings, EV debate, and Bitcoin custody (Unchained)

Opening context and market tone

  • Evan (host) set the stage: a busy headline day with a modestly better market tone versus the prior session. Momentum was broadly positive, with many portfolios largely green.
  • Quick headlines noted: Nvidia partnering with Uber on autonomous driving; Google’s Earth AI efforts (Planet Labs mentioned); multiple China–US policy headlines; and a lighthearted aside on NASA withholding high-res images during the shutdown and alien speculation.
  • Breadth and portfolios: Stock Talk highlighted 19 positions with 18 green; grid, automation, and semi-supply chain baskets holding well through recent volatility.

Quantum computing policy headlines clarified (with Jennifer Schoenberger, Yahoo Finance)

  • What circulated:
    • Wall Street Journal reported the White House was considering equity stakes in quantum computing companies.
    • Commerce Department told Reuters they were not currently negotiating equity stakes.
    • CNBC reported talks were underway.
    • Jennifer’s Yahoo Finance exclusive clarified the shape of potential support.
  • Jennifer’s core reporting and perspective:
    • Talks are occurring between the Administration and companies, but not necessarily about equity stakes. Alternatives under discussion include warrants, loans, or grants.
    • Funding would likely derive from money leftover linked to the Chips Act (as reworked under the current administration).
    • Key detail: companies approached the Administration (not vice versa), and the deals under consideration are not necessarily with the firms mentioned in the WSJ piece.
    • The Administration (and President) can change course. Past precedents include deals/stakes involving Intel, the U.S. Steel/Nippon Steel matter, and Defense Department stakes in certain firms.
    • On the media back-and-forth: trial balloons are common; sourcing matters (lobbyists vs. principals can garble communications). Jennifer emphasized she verifies with appropriate administration point people, avoids hearsay, and stands by her reporting.
    • Prevailing FinTwit sentiment joked an “inner circle” needed a mark-up in quantum names; Jennifer highlighted the Administration’s public negotiation style and trial balloons to gauge reaction.

Macro: CPI timing, Fed posture, and policy uncertainties

  • CPI amid shutdown:
    • Jennifer confirmed CPI releases despite the shutdown because BLS recalled furloughed workers to meet statutory requirements for Social Security COLA (must be posted before Nov 1). CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • Headline inflation expected to tick up to ~3.1% (from 2.9% for September). Core inflation expected to hold near ~3.1% again.
  • Fed data gaps and dual mandate:
    • The Fed lacks the September jobs report and has relied on private indicators (ADP, surveys, Beige Book). Powell acknowledged rising downside risks to employment.
    • Jennifer cited estimates combining ADP and other sources implying September job growth near ~13k (very weak). She is curious what Powell is basing his “further deterioration” employment remarks on.
    • Waller’s “Something’s Gotta Give”: weaker labor vs. resilient consumption; potential bifurcation (affluent spending vs. broader softness).
  • Powell’s near-term approach:
    • Jennifer expects cautious messaging: “projections are not a plan,” meeting-by-meeting decisions, and explicit recognition that the shutdown impairs the Fed’s job when government data are missing for successive meetings.
    • Rate path: Waller suggested a cut at month-end then caution; markets priced high odds of near-term cuts, but the Fed remains data dependent.
  • Balance sheet/QT and money markets:
    • Powell previously said the Fed will stop shrinking the balance sheet in coming months. JP Morgan floated ending QT next week.
    • Jennifer will watch for signals given signs in repo rates and the effective fed funds rate bumping against the top of the target range.
  • Tariffs, China, and Supreme Court risk:
    • Jennifer flagged uncertainty from potential China tariffs and a forthcoming Supreme Court case reviewing tariffs initiated under IEEPA. If the Administration loses, it may pivot to industry-specific tariffs under other authorities (e.g., Section 232).
    • A Trump–Xi meeting was announced (Thursday local time; likely Wednesday evening US), with optimism on avoiding 100% tariffs. Issues include rare earths (an Australia deal cited), soybean purchases, and wider trade tools.

Earnings and market structure: highlights and strategy

  • Intel (INTC):
    • Reported revenue $13.65B vs ~$13.14B consensus; EPS beat was substantial ($0.27 reported vs much lower expectations). Management noted current demand outpacing supply, with strong server demand.
    • Q4 revenue midpoint ~13.2–13.3B, broadly in line/slightly below but not problematic.
    • Stock Talk’s technicals: breakout above $40; a sustained move over ~$41.05 breaks the prior 41–50 range and can accelerate toward mid/high-40s. Volume/price/MAs stack constructively on the daily.
  • Ford (F):
    • Initial after-hours dip (-3%) then partial rebound (-2%). Top/bottom-line beats but a significant headwind: a supplier (Novelis) fire implies a $1.5–$2.0B adjusted EBITDA impact.
    • Technicals flagged by Stock Talk: unusually large sell volume in the two days pre-report (800M shares total), suggestive of institutional exit; watch the 50-day (11.80) support and the 21-EMA (~11.98). Potential for a move to the 100-day as seen in early October.
    • Effort Sniper: long-time holder primarily for the dividend; notes the 10–15 range persistence.
  • Broader earnings season (Motive):
    • Through ~26% of S&P 500:
      • Beat rate ~86%; average surprise ~7.3%.
      • Blended EPS growth ~9.9% (extrapolated); cutting the season now would be ~14.8% EPS growth.
      • Revenues blended ~6.5%; cutting now ~7.7%—strong for mature S&P constituents.
      • Financials have the largest upside surprise: ~21.2% EPS growth vs ~12.4% expected; financials ~20% of S&P earnings (market cap share ~14.3%).
      • Tech revenue growth early read ~15%; healthcare outperforming; utilities underperforming.
    • Motive remains constructive on market-level earnings/revenue while reserving concerns for individual stories.

Portfolio construction, baskets, and themes (Stock Talk)

  • Semi supply chain: Amkor (AMKR) as a core; Photronics (PLAB) as a complement.
  • Grid/energy infrastructure: EnerSys (ENS) and Preformed Line Products (PLPC) as core grid positions.
  • Automation/warehousing: GXO Logistics (GXO) and Helios Technologies (HLIO) for industrial machinery, hydraulics, and warehouse automation.
  • Nuclear: Centrus Energy (LEU) as the only US enrichment facility. Valuation stretched but strategic; maintained as a multi-cycle hold from a low cost basis.
  • Multi-cycle holds: Robinhood (HOOD), Kratos Defense (KTOS; calls out to Jan 2027 at $15 strikes plus higher ladder), a multi-theme AI infrastructure name (“Nebius” referenced; cost basis $23, now ~$150)—kept for strategic value despite high price.
  • Philosophy: build real wealth with long-term compounding positions; rotate cautiously; avoid dividend/ETF holdings personally; sell the story properly—CEOs must tastefully promote to earn forward-looking multiple expansion.

Value and biotech ideas (Logical)

  • Trading setup and taxes: uses January-dated calls on earnings plays to gain flexibility and defer realization.
  • Specific positions:
    • LendingClub: strong report; opted to hold Jan calls through New Year.
    • Gap (GPS): December $24 calls saw ~$6M flow; viral khaki ad; potential sold-out denim inventory; trades near ~7x EV/E; multi-brand portfolio (Old Navy, Athleta, Banana Republic).
    • Biotech basket:
      • “Nectar” (atopic dermatitis focus) hitting new 52-week highs.
      • uniQure (QURE) for Huntington’s; rare disease premium often 3–4x peak sales (vs 2x conservative rule of thumb).
      • Avalo (AVTX): re-entered on dip; +13% day; acknowledges high beta volatility.
      • Delcath Systems (DCTH): posted a long thesis on X.
  • Guidance: don’t borrow conviction; enforce good risk-reward; buy quality on indiscriminate selloffs; remain bullish on bios and in the broader bull market context.

EVs, autonomy, energy storage: Tesla vs Rivian debate

  • Stock Talk’s stance on Tesla:
    • Auto business: deteriorating margins and growth; shareholder base values long-term autonomy/robotics optionality, hence valuation resilience.
    • Autonomy: Tesla expanding geofenced FSD operations (Austin footprint now larger than Waymo’s in that locale). If Tesla outpaces Waymo’s region map without lidar, bullish; if Waymo outruns Tesla’s geographic rollout, bearish.
    • Optimus: V3 in Q1 not production-ready; production maturity expected by V5 (~2027–2028). Would invest heavily in robotics if at the helm; acknowledges Elon’s chosen pacing.
    • Portfolio impact: Tesla weighting has shrunk due to underperformance relative to other names; EVs are now largely commodities (Chinese scale and supply chain flattened investment appeal).
  • Hamid’s stance:
    • Tesla revenue growth stagnating; P/S near ~17x for a low-margin manufacturer looks excessive without near-term growth catalysts before 2027.
    • Rivian advantage: full-stack approach (hardware/software/electronics/battery), Adventure Network, strong R1S vs Model X in US high-price segment; R2 to challenge Model Y; trades near ~3.5–4x sales; easier path to 10x over 5–6 years than Tesla due to smaller base.
    • Policy buffer: US/EU will protect domestic auto industries via tariffs; Chinese brands won’t dominate in these markets.
    • December 11 Autonomy Day: expects Rivian to demonstrate hands-free point-to-point driving by 2026 using hybrid camera + lidar + radar. If fleet-wide autonomy is achieved, stock should rerate.
  • Common ground:
    • If Rivian deploys a viable autonomy system across its fleet (multi-environment, supervised then unsupervised), the stock deserves rerating.
    • Debate on Elon’s consumer selling of FSD/roadster reservations: Hamid views multi-year delay plus upfront charges as valid consumer criticism; Stock Talk counters with disclosed beta terms and the difficulty of first-mover innovation.
  • Tesla energy:
    • Noted bright spot: energy storage ramp (Megapacks) and growing run-rate; broader grid-scale storage companies (EOS) discussed; expanding on-site energy storage for data centers.

Warehouse and factory automation theme

  • Stock Talk highlighted acceleration in automation expenditures:
    • Companies across e-commerce and logistics (Amazon, UPS, FedEx, Nike, Apple, Whirlpool, Nestlé) investing heavily in automated warehousing for margin improvement and fixed-cost leverage.
    • Near-term (3–5 years): increasing deployment of warehouses with small human teams and large robot fleets.
    • Humanoid robots: 5–10 years at production scale due to tooling/manufacturing complexities.
    • Beneficiaries: GXO and HLIO; industrial hydraulics and machinery integral to moving heavy loads reliably.

AI infrastructure and onshoring (Sam)

  • Crypto: Bitcoin above 200-day; still below 20/50-day MAs; Ethereum comparatively flat; maintains a small long-held BTC position.
  • Large-cap tech: Amazon viewed as one of the cheapest mega-caps on forward P/E; hyperscalers report next week; AWS commentary worth monitoring (prior triple-digit AI product growth remarks by CEO Andy Jassy). Meta’s AI execution update is of high interest.
  • Semiconductor supply chain:
    • Amkor (OSAT) and TSMC Arizona build-out: Amkor’s major US investment (~$12B with ~$7B from TSMC/Apple); secular volume expansion is the thesis (more onshoring → more assembly/test demand).
    • SoftBank, Nvidia investments and US onshoring trends were noted; expectation of rising domestic infrastructure for advanced packaging.

IBM and “selling the story” discussion

  • IBM’s AI/quantum partnerships span AWS/Azure, CoreWeave, Groq, Anthropic, AMD (quantum initiative) and more, yet investor narrative underweights IBM as an AI beneficiary.
  • Stock Talk emphasized the importance of CEOs “selling the story” tastefully to earn forward multiples. Oracle is a case study in successful narrative-building (major rerating), while other legacy names (e.g., Cisco, HPE) took longer to be recognized.
  • Investors often buy themes, not tickers; leadership must connect the ticker to the theme credibly to catalyze multiple expansion.

Bitcoin custody deep dive: Unchained (Connor) and education (Charles)

  • Why custody matters:
    • Exchange risk: counterparty failures (e.g., FTX), account hacks, and access blocks can impair ownership. “Not your keys, not your coins.”
    • Cold storage basics: a private key controls a blockchain address; hardware wallets (Trezor, Ledger, Coldcard) store keys offline; seed phrases (12/24 words) are analog backups of private keys.
  • Single-sig vs multi-sig:
    • Single-sig: one private key (with a seed backup). If lost or compromised, funds at risk.
    • Multi-sig: multiple private keys tied to an address; threshold signatures required to move funds—reduces single-point-of-failure risk.
  • Unchained’s collaborative custody model:
    • Standard is a 2-of-3 multi-sig vault: client controls two hardware devices (and two distinct seed phrases); Unchained holds the third key.
    • Client retains unilateral control (two keys suffice to move funds) while Unchained can co-sign if one key is lost/inaccessible.
    • Multiple account types can share the same two master private keys: personal, business entities, trusts, and IRAs (traditional/Roth). Assets are legally segregated but cryptographically linked to the same key pair, with Unchained’s third key.
  • Services layered on multi-sig:
    • Trading: OTC desk with competitive fees (~1%), sending purchased BTC directly into multi-sig cold storage.
    • Commercial loans: BTC-collateralized loans providing USD liquidity; >$1B originated since 2017, with no BTC losses.
    • IRAs: self-custodied Bitcoin within a tax-advantaged IRA structure; contributions must be in USD (per IRS), but rollovers from existing IRAs/401(k)s can fund BTC purchases. Roth IRA appeal is strong if long-term BTC appreciation is expected.
    • Inheritance & succession planning: seed phrase distribution to executor/spouse/lawyer while keeping Bitcoin secure during life (one seed is insufficient to move funds; Unchained verifies identity and death before co-signing). Trust accounts available to skip probate.
  • Onboarding and support:
    • Concierge onboarding available (white-glove option ~$6,000/year; personal accounts as low as ~$250/year); multi-tiered support for differing needs.
    • Direct consult link: unchained.com/wolfbitcoin. Connor offered direct contact via DM or email ([email protected]). Unchained schedules complimentary consultations to tailor solutions.
  • Charles’s perspective:
    • Retail should learn custody fundamentals; institutions already use professional custody (e.g., Coinbase Prime) and multi-sig.
    • Unique Bitcoin trait: portability—seed phrase memorization allows cross-border wealth transfer unlike gold/cash constraints.

Upcoming catalysts and watch-outs

  • Macro/events next week:
    • CPI print; FOMC policy statement (no updated dot plot this meeting), Powell press conference.
    • Potential end to QT; ongoing government shutdown complicates data.
    • Trump–Xi meeting (with tariff extension/changes in focus).
    • Major earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Apple) and further AI/capex commentary.
  • Technicals (SPY):
    • Stock Talk wants a reclaim of recent highs for confirmation; today’s candle set a springboard setup (above 9 & 21 EMAs). Caution advised on initiating new positions ahead of catalysts to protect cost basis.

Notable tickers, themes, and small headlines

  • Honeywell (HON) strength noted by Evan and EMP; Target cuts 18 corporate roles (first major layoff in a decade).
  • Deckers and Newmont also reported; Super Micro issued a product headline.
  • Consumer aside: Johnsonville to produce Dr Pepper–flavored sausages; Coke Zero vs Diet Coke banter.

Key takeaways

  • Quantum headlines likely mean non-equity support (warrants/loans/grants) funded via Chips Act leftovers; companies approached government; equity stakes not the current path—but policy can pivot.
  • The Fed faces data constraints; expect cautious guidance, potential QT end, and a near-term cut with careful follow-through. CPI likely won’t alter the December trajectory unless outlier prints emerge.
  • Earnings season breadth is strong, with financials driving outsized upside. Intel’s report/technicals were notably constructive; Ford’s supply shock tempers otherwise decent results.
  • EVs face commodity pressures and policy uncertainty; investor narratives hinge on autonomy/robotics execution (Tesla vs Waymo) and Rivian’s upcoming Autonomy Day.
  • Automation theme (warehouses/factories) is a clear multi-year capital flow story; GXO/HLIO cited as beneficiaries.
  • Bitcoin custody is increasingly mainstream; Unchained’s multi-sig collaborative custody, trading, lending, IRA, and inheritance planning create an integrated, self-sovereign wealth platform.