BITCOIN TODAY 🎙️ ₿ 🚀

The Spaces brought a fast-moving mix of bitcoin macro, market structure, custody, developer politics, and community outreach. Hosts Lauren and Terrence guided a roundtable featuring British, Dark Side, House, Tiffany, Corey, Trey, Prometheus, Joe (author of Unconfiscatable), Fred, Jace, Andrew (Midwest Summit), and others. Macro views centered on a likely 25 bps Fed move as a nothing burger versus a real energy supply shock; Joe emphasized nominal growth and oil as key drivers of yields, not monetary inflation. Markets talk covered BlackRock ETF outflows and narrative-driven liquidity. Technical rails drew scrutiny after Liquid’s peg anxiety and a 600 BTC incident, with pragmatic uses as Lightning back-end and privacy tool trade-offs. A newcomer’s allocation question prompted consensus: treat bitcoin as long-term savings, self custody via multisig (e.g., Casa, Onramp), and tax-loss harvest IBIT. A lively real estate debate (Grant Cardone) weighed housing’s lifestyle value versus leverage into income assets. Developer-politics included the BIT‑110 fork fallout, with calls for boundaries and focus on adoption. Outreach highlights: Sovereign Summit, Bitcoin Alpha, Bitcoin Treasuries, Amsterdam, and the Midwest Bitcoin Summit’s cannabis crossover, payments, and education. Modeling debates (PlanB/PlanG, power laws) urged skepticism of predictive charts while keeping conviction anchored in fundamentals.

Bitcoin Today – Twitter Space Recap

Who spoke (as referenced in the conversation)

• Hosts/regulars: Lauren (host), Terrence (co-host), Tiffany
• Frequent contributors: British (aka British HODL), Dark Side (aka Dark), House, Jace/Jays, Dom
• Guests and named individuals: Grant (Grant Cardone), Gary (Gary Cardone), Prometheus, Joe (author of “Unconfiscatable”), Corey (likely Corey Klippsten), Trey Sellers (Strike), Andrew (organizer of Midwest Bitcoin Summit), Fred (organizer/speaker, Bitcoin Alpha), Lindy, Half
• Other names mentioned: Michael Saylor (“Sailor”), Jeff Booth, Kamala Harris, Gensler, Willie Woo, Michael Kantrowitz (referenced as “Michael Cantor” in discussion), “Bitcoin Anon” (Anon), “Puncher” (referenced), Luke (referenced re: fork mechanics)

Market, macro and policy narrative

• ETF flows and TradFi behavior

  • British flagged sizable outflows from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF (cited “~$400M,” largest since June), suggesting a tactical play: sell the ETF, keep cash at the broker, wait for weaker spot prices as retail panics, then re-enter cheaper on spot.
  • View: Clarity Act’s failure (they often said “Clarity,” sometimes joking as “culture/cloture”) keeps TradFi incumbents advantaged; narrative-driven liquidity swung against bitcoin short term.

• Rates and the Fed

  • Pre-meeting odds: Several cited ~90% probability of a 25 bps hike (noted “Kalshi” odds slipping from ~92% to ~87%).
  • Dark Side’s thesis: The “box” the Fed is in doesn’t matter for markets near term; the key driver is a supply/energy shock from war. Rates won’t create more oil; bond market cares about oil/diesel and energy flow, not marginal shifts in Fed Funds. He noted we’re back near 5% on the 10-year despite cumulative cuts (his claim) since last year—arguing policy is constrained by supply realities.
  • Joe’s view: The Fed meeting is a “nothing burger”; bond markets already priced it. He sees yields driven primarily by nominal growth and oil, not a runaway inflation expectation. He pointed to short-dated swaps (roughly 2.7–2.8% implied) to argue inflation expectations aren’t unanchored, and stressed the distinction between monetary inflation and supply shocks. Policy response should reflect cause; hiking doesn’t produce oil.
  • Others: Some questioned whether higher yields reflect growth vs. inflation; Joe reiterated a near one-to-one relationship between nominal growth and yields and cautioned against conflating supply shocks with monetary inflation.

• “Clarity Act” takeaway

  • Multiple speakers: Bitcoin doesn’t “need” regulatory clarity to function; clarity mainly aids developers/tools (privacy/custody) caught in enforcement gray zones (e.g., Samurai case). Bitcoin’s commodity status has been broadly accepted by regulators for years.

Infrastructure and privacy: Liquid and Lightning

• Liquid network concerns and incident

  • Several shared that Liquid (sidechain) usage never felt mainstream; some used it extensively for back-end liquidity (Lightning rails), but peg-in/out windows (24–48 hours) and trust assumptions felt risky.
  • A cited security incident involved ~600 BTC; participants noted stolen funds had not moved. Sentiment: funds might be recoverable; if haircut, worst case ~15% (speculation). Fear around peg-out risk and custody centralization led some to avoid Liquid for settlement.

• Payment routing architectures

  • One builder described a setup with Lightning at the front end and Liquid rails for back-end liquidity balancing, with swaps back to Lightning—minimizing direct peg-out exposure.

Personal allocation and custody Q&A (Wrench)

• Profile (self-described): 42, owns a house, multiple small businesses (pizza shop, plumbing, rentals), ~10% bitcoin, legacy “I bit” position at a loss, wants to allocate more and accept bitcoin at a New York pizzeria/coffee shop.
• Guidance highlights (opinions varied, not financial advice)
  • Terrence: Treat bitcoin as a savings vessel for dollars not needed for 4–5 years; grow allocation with conviction as you learn. Think of it as “another money” system; decide how much of your savings you want in that system.
  • Dark Side: If “I bit” cost basis is high, consider tax-loss harvesting and moving proceeds into self-custody bitcoin (multi-sig via Casa or Unchained). Recognize the loss to offset income where allowed (consult tax pros).
  • Custody vendors mentioned: Casa, Unchained, Onramp (for multi-custody and estate planning), Cash App/Square for payments. Emphasis on multi-sig to avoid single points of failure.
  • Accepting bitcoin on-prem: Consider instant conversion to USD if you can’t hold volatility; Lightning with auto-convert could be viable depending on local regs.

Real estate vs bitcoin (and lifestyle) debate

• Grant’s thesis (strong, unapologetic):
  • Housing faces secular headwinds as baby boomers pass and estates liquidate—supply rises, prices deflate. Owning a house is often a poor financial investment vs. redeploying equity into higher-yielding real estate or productive assets.
  • Encouraged maximizing capital efficiency: sell expensive primary residence, rent for flexibility/amenities, and lever into income-producing real estate (examples: refi distributions, zero tax on refi cash, anecdotes of sending partners $145k refi proceeds; mention of a “big real estate bitcoin fund”).
  • Example math: On $1.5M home equity, opportunity cost at 5% is $75k/yr ($6k/mo). Renting a premium unit with amenities could be cost-equivalent without headaches (tax, HOA, upkeep).
• Counterpoints and nuance
  • Terrence and others: A home has lifestyle/family return that can trump finance—stability, control, memories. Owning also hedges against landlord risk (e.g., forced moves). Recognize tradeoffs; align with family and personal priorities.
  • House: Property tax erosion and rents vs. ownership: personal calculus has shifted—he sees homes as consumables more than investments now, especially given annual tax increases.
  • Jace: Asked why a commercial crash didn’t materialize post-COVID, and what’s different now; discussion acknowledged rising rates compressing values and buyer pools—some expect a bloodbath; others noted bifurcation by quality/market.

Books, media and AI

• Joe’s “Unconfiscatable”

  • Strong positive reception from readers (Terrence, Jace). Debate on adaptation: Joe prefers real actors over AI-generated live-action. Book 2 is 80–90% drafted; editor/agent advised letting Book 1 percolate.
  • Format debate: Film vs. series. Some felt a series better serves nuanced characters/time shifts (analogies to The Firm/Ozark).

• AI and public comments

  • Early banter: Kamala Harris quote ridiculed; discussion about AI input-output determinism was criticized as “ass backwards.”

Events and announcements

• Sovereign Summit (Miami): Saylor and Jeff Booth to appear (jokes about Saylor’s proximity). “Terrence Michael” referenced in a speaker announcement.

• Bitcoin Treasury Conference (NYC, Sept 28): Trey Sellers attending (Strike). Additional travel: Nashville; Bitcoin Amsterdam (Nov 5–6).

• Midwest Bitcoin Summit (Columbus, OH) – Andrew’s brief

  • Scale/logistics: >200,000 sq ft within a 1.8M sq ft convention center; 85 sessions, 4 stages over 2 days; 45 speakers; 47 companies; 60 sponsors. Livestream available. VIP meals staggered 1:00–3:00 pm.
  • Afterparty at COSI (Columbus Science and Industry Museum) with Breaking Bad guests: Tuco and Walter Jr.
  • Bitcoin Treasure Hunt: Two scheduled hunts; RSVP via MidwestBTC.com (Half supporting comms).
  • Co-located industry: Ohio Cannabis Health & Business Summit (OCHBS); co-branded “Catalyst” event aims to facilitate cross-talk.
  • 2024 approach: “Light touch” cross-industry programming to avoid spooking established operators; 2025+ may add explicit crossover panels.
  • Why operators might care: Cash-heavy ops, constrained banking, squeezed margins, commoditization, need for treasury solutions, payments, lending, and capital preservation. Many operators are self-made and wealthy; education gap is the barrier. Vision: orange-pill responsibly at scale.

• Bitcoin Alpha (Santa Monica) – Fred’s brief

  • Format: Unconference style (self-organized sessions) fosters engagement better than big-stage lectures. This year’s theme: lunar/space; the iconic “shark” prop reimagined on the moon with dark fluorescent lighting and possibly a “laser.”

Modeling debate: power laws, PlanB/PlanG, and conviction

• Fred’s perspective: Power-law framing can bolster conviction; people need a general framework to steady hands through volatility.
• Corey’s critique:
  • Extrapolations of price using “power law” or similar models are not predictive and often mislead; historical best-fit lines on log charts can look magically straight but ignore demand and structural change.
  • Referenced debunking of PlanB years ago (invalid math and overfitted narratives) and skepticism toward a “Plan G.” Warned against charlatanism (e.g., claims of trading a model to 13x BTC) and appeal to authority (power laws “in nature” claims are thin—few hold up under rigorous review).
  • Advocates simple, robust theses: fixed supply vs. expanding global demand for superior money; portfolio and store-of-value share arguments. Avoid trading off models; use latticework of mental models instead.
• Tone: Respectful disagreement between Fred and Corey; both urged independent thinking and conviction-building without outsourcing beliefs.

Fork controversy (“bit 1:10”) and community norms

• Summary
  • Trey and Anon reflected on the fork episode: some proponents argued “game theory” and aligned incentives would ensure success; Trey argued many misunderstood core Bitcoin mechanics and fork dynamics.
  • Aftermath: Liquidity, hash power, and community largely remained with Bitcoin; fork activity has gone quiet. Some noted unilateral decisions (e.g., PoW choices) in the fork’s orbit as red flags.
  • Social costs: Several lamented relationships strained by vitriol (e.g., extreme accusations). Calls for boundaries and selective grace: kindness where reciprocated, but no obligation to endure abuse.
• Takeaway: Focus returns to adoption; internal fights sap energy. Protect attention; disengage from bad actors; direct effort to education and onboarding.

Bitcoin infra, payments and custody: practical notes

• Custody and security: Multi-sig (Casa, Unchained) favored; Onramp cited for custodial/multi-custody/estate planning. Avoid single points of failure.
• Business acceptance: Lightning with immediate conversion to USD is viable; Cash App/Square are widely used; consider policies to manage volatility.
• Liquid/L2 learnings: Trust boundaries matter; timing windows and custodial elements add risk; Lightning-first approaches with careful liquidity back-ends can mitigate.

Culture, humor and miscellany

• Mossad joke cameo; “erections on the blockchain” running gag; “Clarity rates gone wrong” satirical movie trailer featuring Mitch McConnell, Trump, RFK impressions, and a Neville Brothers soundtrack bit.
• Corey’s media: Shift to sustainable video cadence (short M/W/F, longer Tue/Thu). Open to topic suggestions (email shared in-call). Many praised short-format explainers.
• Accepting new participants: Hosts allow wide voices (even those seen as “scammers”) to reach the uninitiated; mission is outreach and orange-pilling, not preaching to the choir.

Cannabis x Bitcoin (extended segment)

• Industry realities (as reported by Andrew and others)
  • Banking: Restricted access; reliance on certain credit unions; heavy fees; cash-heavy operations; some can do ACH but not SWIFT; risk handling cash to get into bitcoin is non-trivial.
  • Payments: Debit “ATM” workarounds, cash settlement for change; Lightning with auto-convert could be a bridge; fold/Cash App flows relevant for retail.
  • Treasury and capital: Commoditization squeezes margins; timing matters (operators still in growth euphoria, but slowing). Bitcoin pitched as a strategic asset for preservation and optionality.
  • Education: Many operators already have some crypto exposure, but depth is shallow—focus on multi-sig, compliance-aware payment rails, and volatility management.

Key takeaways

• Macro: Markets are laser-focused on energy supply shocks; nominal growth and oil are driving yields more than Fed optics. Fed decisions at the margin may matter less than supply realities.
• Policy: Bitcoin’s legal clarity remains patchy for builders, but Bitcoin itself doesn’t functionally require it; narratives influence short-term flows.
• Infrastructure: Liquid’s trust windows and recent incident underscored risk; Lightning-first setups with careful liquidity management remain favored.
• Allocation and custody: Save long-term surplus in bitcoin; consider tax-loss harvesting from ETF positions; prioritize multi-sig self-custody.
• Real estate vs. BTC: Strong arguments exist for redeploying home equity; equally strong lifestyle arguments exist for owning—align to personal/family goals.
• Modeling: Beware power-law allure and overfitted models; conviction should rest on fundamentals, not chart sorcery.
• Community: Set boundaries; extend grace selectively; stay focused on education and adoption to avoid exhausting fork drama.
• Events: Busy calendar—Sovereign Summit (Miami), Bitcoin Treasury Conf (NYC 9/28), Bitcoin Amsterdam (11/5–6), Bitcoin Alpha (Santa Monica), Midwest Bitcoin Summit (Columbus; big footprint, treasure hunts, Breaking Bad guests).

References and resources mentioned (non-exhaustive)

• Custody: Casa, Unchained, Onramp
• Payments/rails: Lightning, Cash App/Square, Liquid (with caveats), Boltz (referenced as “bolts”)
• Market tools: Kalshi (rate odds); IBIT (BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF)
• People/books: “Unconfiscatable” by Joe; Willie Woo; Michael Kantrowitz
• Events: Sovereign Summit (Miami), Bitcoin Treasury Conference (NYC), Bitcoin Amsterdam, Bitcoin Alpha (Santa Monica), Midwest Bitcoin Summit (Columbus) with OCHBS “Catalyst” co-event