#FinanceDaily: Chips, Crypto selloff $NVDA $PLTR $BTC; @permutocapital; Closed airspace?

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Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfalNov 6, 2025

The Spaces covered a volatile market tape the day after elections, with crypto and AI/chip names selling off, and a debated linkage to macro politics and a possible government shutdown resolution. Nvidia’s China exposure was questioned amid Chinese curbs on state-linked data center chip imports. ADP data showed private job growth above expectations as market breadth weakened and semis looked extended. From Abu Dhabi, Anas reported AI’s staggering long-term energy capex needs, rising bullishness on LNG/natural gas, and a notable retreat from stringent climate constraints (e.g., Norway’s sovereign wealth fund easing fossil-fuel limits), alongside geopolitics in Venezuela/Guyana. A major segment introduced Permudo Capital’s equity-splitting structure—dividing large-cap stocks into Dividend Certificates (DCs) and Asset Certificates (ACs)—with planned NYSE American listings and Chia blockchain tokenization to materially cut back-office costs. Debate ensued on “capital rotation” toward precious metals versus the need to normalize asset views for money supply, deficits, dollar strength, and earnings. Technical views highlighted Bitcoin’s key moving averages, relative performance versus the S&P 500, and potential corrections in overheated big tech; ethical investing preferences closed the discussion.

Session Overview

  • Host: David (moderator/host)
  • Guests and speakers:
    • Dave Weisberger (market structure/crypto; later offers macro critiques and operational notes on air travel during the shutdown)
    • Anas (energy economist/commentator, speaking from Abu Dhabi; discussed AI energy capex, LNG/natural gas, and climate policy sentiment)
    • David Nikoski (technical analyst; breadth, semis, sectors, VIX interpretation)
    • North Star (technical/relative-valuation analyst; capital rotation framework priced in gold)
    • Eric (macro/portfolio ethics perspective; money-printing and nominal vs real)
    • Gene Hoffman (Permudo trusts; product architecture and blockchain backend rationale)
    • Trent (Permudo trusts; use cases, risk-return positioning, listing/tokenization plans)
    • Evan (technicals across BTC, gold, S&P; historical analogs)

Market Recap and Macro Backdrop

  • Equities and crypto: The host noted a messy selloff the prior day with a brief mid-morning relief rally before renewed weakness. Crypto volatility was extreme; BTC even printed sub-100,000 on some venues before rebounding. Chip/AI complex led downside, with the magnitude of tech weakness exceeding crypto’s percentage drawdown in some respects.
  • Correlation puzzle: The host questioned crypto’s correlation to AI/chip weakness; floated that blaming digital asset treasury companies (DATs) doesn’t fully explain price action.
  • Elections: Results in NY/NJ/CA favored Democrats. The host argued these states remain structurally Democratic, so the outcome shouldn’t be over-interpreted. Mentioned California Prop 50.
  • Government shutdown odds: With elections over, the host sees a better chance to end the shutdown, as messaging value has diminished. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries reportedly willing to walk back an “ironclad” Obamacare subsidy deal—potentially easing negotiations.
  • China/semis: Nvidia remains a “hot potato.” Even if U.S. allowed chip sales (e.g., Blackwell later), China is blocking chip imports in state-related data centers, undermining a China-reentry thesis. Nvidia growth must lean on other drivers.

Earnings and Pre-Market Movers

  • Mega-cap “Mag 7”: Mixed and near flat pre-market overall; Tesla +1.2%, Nvidia -0.7%.
  • AMD: -4% post-earnings after more than doubling YTD.
  • Palantir: Posted strong results but -8% on the day; cited as a notable sentiment tell.
  • Pinterest: -18% on weak revenue outlook.
  • Super Micro: -7%.
  • Pharma/health: BioHaven -44%; Clover Health -20% on guidance cut.
  • REITs/New York office: Simon Property and Vornado both beat; notable given Vornado’s large NYC office exposure (alongside SL Green, Brookfield). Existing leases are long-dated, but vacancies remain the weak spot.
  • Macro datapoint: ADP private payrolls for October +42k vs +30k expected; prior month -29k.
  • Notable positioning: Michael Burry (Cyan Asset Management) reportedly holds bearish option wagers on Nvidia and Palantir.

Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting

  • Volumes: “Calcie” (interpreted as Kalshi) processed ~$4.4B October volume; Polymarket ~$3B. Most volume is sports-related, not election-related.
  • Strategic implication: Prediction markets are encroaching on sports betting market share. Unclear if users are migrating from DraftKings/FanDuel or splitting activity, but the revenue stream is growing.

Energy, AI Capex, and Climate Policy (Anas)

  • Conference color (Abu Dhabi): Day 3 focus still AI, with an emphasis on staggering capex needs through 2050 for AI and energy—“hundreds of trillions” cited by participants.
  • Natural gas/LNG: Toby Rice (EQT CEO) reiterated the role of natural gas and cleaner production pathways. Anas is structurally bullish LNG; sees many peers bullish U.S. nat gas, though he is more selective domestically.
  • Messaging vs engineering reality: Policymakers/CEOs are publicly optimistic, but technical sessions (engineers, scientists) flagged under-reported implementation difficulties which could constrain overly bullish paths.
  • Climate policy retreat: Anas has long forecast significant retreat from climate targets by 2050; he’s now more bullish oil & gas long-term. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund reportedly relaxed fossil-fuel investment restrictions, with other funds/banks leaving climate coalitions—potentially catalyzed by Bill Gates’ recent public comments.
  • COP30 (Brazil) geopolitics: U.S. plans a lower-level delegation. European leaders fear angering Trump by attending at head-of-state level; likely to downshift to foreign minister-level representation.
  • Venezuela/Guyana: Javier Blas op-ed on Venezuela regime change and “opening oil floodgates.” Anas contextualized U.S. naval presence as protecting Guyana’s elections amid Venezuelan claims. Timelines to meaningful Venezuelan oil recovery are long—“after Trump leaves office.” He cautioned that drivers extend beyond oil (Venezuela’s stance on Gaza/Israel and broader regional security), and stopped short of further detail.

Technical Market Picture (David Nikoski)

  • Bitcoin: Broke below the 200-day; historically recovers within ~3 days—he’s applying a “three-day wait rule.” Bounce came near June lows.
  • Semiconductors: Avoiding semis; SMH/SOX extension above 200-day mirrored 2021 extremes. Analog names (e.g., Texas Instruments) at decade low relative strength vs S&P. AI-linked leaders (Nvidia/AMD) prop the group, but he’s not a buyer here; tactically shorted via SOXS.
  • VIX signal dilution: Options in levered ETFs are not captured in VIX, diminishing its usefulness as an aggregate risk gauge.
  • Breadth deterioration: Percentage of S&P names above 200-day is near levels last seen Aug 1 (with S&P at 621 then—used as statistical context, not a price target). Financials (XLF) at 52-week relative-strength lows vs S&P despite leaders like JPM/GS; sector-wide underperformance persists.
  • Sector stress: Consumer cyclicals (restaurants), truckers, chemicals, paper/packaging look as if demand were collapsing—reinforcing narrow leadership concerns. He remains patient before adding “old economy” longs.
  • Dollar: For sustained leadership in energy/EM, likely need USD weakness; until then, U.S. tech’s FX headwind persists, but ex-U.S. markets lacking tech weight can behave differently (Korea strong YTD).

Capital Rotation and Gold-Centric Lens (North Star; with reactions)

  • Thesis: Use gold as a barometer to price assets. When many assets/sectors simultaneously enter bear markets priced in gold, it signals a once-in-decades rotation.
    • He argues most major U.S. indices (equal-weight S&P, NYSE Composite, Dow, Wilshire, Russell), monetary aggregates (money supply, currency in circulation), and CPI/PPI are in bear markets when priced in gold.
    • Of the S&P’s 11 sectors, all except perhaps tech are in full bear markets priced in gold; S&P/Nasdaq are “transitioning” to gold-priced bear markets.
  • Crypto: Altcoins are in bear markets vs gold and now also vs USD (broke long-term support, below 50-week MA). BTC is in a bear market vs gold; over ~10 months, gold +50%, equities +14%, crypto total ~+3%, BTC/Ether ~flat.
  • Capital rotation archetype: Refers to 1930s, 1970s, early 2000s. Expects a decade-plus where stocks “go nowhere” in real terms, with drawdowns and recoveries netting flat; gold/PMs/energy outperform over the cycle. Near-term, gold/silver may consolidate further even as the next rotation phase is driven by equity weakness (he envisions significant stock market rollover).
  • Host challenge: Why must stocks decline if PMs cool? North Star: The event is defined by PM outperformance vs equities across a long window; historically required substantial equity drawdowns to set up a decade-long “nowhere” trajectory.
  • Eric’s nuance: In nominal terms, equities can still rise amid heavy money printing; in real terms, returns may be flat—consistent with North Star’s framework.
  • Nikoski concurrence: Under the surface, leadership rotates (e.g., energy) even if the headline index trends sideways; a weaker dollar would be a catalyst for such rotations.
  • Dave Weisberger’s critique: You must normalize by money supply and corporate earnings. Charts priced in gold that ignore 40% M2 growth in five years (and ongoing deficits) can mislead. He doubts a nominal gold drop to 3,000 given central bank demand and the debasement regime. Stock performance tracks corporate profits (as % of GDP); without that context, S&P vs gold comparisons are incomplete.

Product Spotlight: Permudo Trusts (Dividend Certificates and Asset Certificates; Chia blockchain)

  • Concept (Gene Hoffman, Trent): Split a dividend-paying stock into two perpetual instruments:
    • Dividend Certificate (DC): Perpetual claim on the stock’s future dividends. Valued via dividend discount/growing annuity models; example framing suggested MSFT DC could be in the ~$45–$65 range based on current dividend outlook.
    • Asset Certificate (AC): Residual claim on all other economic value (price appreciation, buybacks’ effect on per-share dividend accrual, etc.). AC = Stock price – DC, creating “natural leverage” to the underlying stock’s price path.
  • Applicability: Focus initially on ~90 large-cap dividend payers (Pfizer, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom, etc.). Even low current dividend payers (e.g., Nvidia) may be included on expectations of future dividend growth.
  • Risk/return placement (Trent):
    • DC sits between corporate bonds and equities on the risk/return curve; unlike debt, dividends aren’t contractual, so DC should price above IG yields but below equity returns.
    • Dividend policy behavior: In crises, large-cap growth firms historically held dividends steady (e.g., 2008) rather than cutting; cuts among this cohort have been rare (Intel cited; Pepsi potentially subject to activist pressure). Buybacks reduce share count, potentially increasing dividends per share, which pass through to DC holders.
    • Tax: DC passes through qualified dividends, improving after-tax yield. They suggested MSFT DC might imply a 5.5–6.5% yield before tax; tax-equivalent yield could approach ~7.5–8% depending on investor tax situation.
  • Market structure and users:
    • Traders/delta-one desks: DC as a better perpetual single-stock dividend future; AC increases implied volatility and opens options strategies.
    • Structured products: DC can help hedge dividend risk embedded in autocallables and other notes.
    • Retail/RIAs/Target-date funds: Lifecycle allocation within a single name—tilt to AC (growth) when young, gradually shift to DC (income) approaching retirement. Example: Pepsi DC would have outperformed S&P 500 over certain 5-year windows purely on dividend growth.
    • Arbitrage: AC + DC should equate to the underlying stock; ETF-like creation/redemption/arbitrage dynamics encourage price alignment.
    • Private credit crossover: DC’s yield-forward nature may attract capital accustomed to underwriting cash flows.
  • Listing and tokenization:
    • Planned listing: NYSE American so investors can buy in traditional brokerage accounts; ability to swap between AC and DC maintained.
    • Blockchain (Chia) backend importance:
      • Corporate actions (dividends, voting) and tax reporting become significantly cheaper and automated. Estimated per-trust annual savings of ~$650k if holders are on-chain; K-1 issuance and recordkeeping costs reduced (example: ~$400k/yr saved on K-1 processing).
      • Expect ~50% lower fees for holders who custody on Chia vs DTC; over time could be more efficient as SEC modernization progresses.
  • Host disclosure: No involvement or compensation; hosted for educational purposes. Sees the product as potentially compelling in more normal/volatile return regimes vs the recent era of outsized equity gains.

Crypto and Cross-Asset Technicals (Evan; with responses)

  • Relative performance lenses:
    • Gold vs S&P 500: Still below the COVID-era spike; until it breaks above, Evan leans S&P bullish in relative terms. Historically, gold’s big outperformance cycles (1970s, 2000–2010) are rare and long; he thinks the major gold outperformance vs S&P could be more of a 2030s story than immediate.
    • Gold correction scope: Sees 20–30% as plausible; personally doubts a drawdown beyond ~30%.
    • Berkshire vs S&P/Nasdaq: Historically, when BRK underperforms S&P by ~30%, subsequent BRK relative outperformance often follows; notes BRK’s resilience in Bitcoin bear market years (2014, 2018, 2022).
    • Bitcoin vs S&P: BTC has bled vs S&P since mid-year; expects that to continue possibly into 1H26. Near term, BTC reclaimed its 50-week MA; a decisive reclaim of ~100k would reassert the bull trend.
    • Big Tech froth: Sees potential for a 2022-like correction in overheated names (e.g., Palantir, Nvidia) into 2026, while acknowledging Michael Burry’s recent track record has been mixed.
    • Fed/QT analog: The last QT end preceded a 4–6 month risk-off stretch into early 2020; extrapolates potential for crypto softness into the first half of next year (magnitude likely less severe than 2022).
  • Host’s response: Emphasized his fundamental orientation and skepticism of purely technical “video-game-like” patterns; acknowledged wide audience exposure to both approaches—with the scoreboard (legal profits) as the ultimate arbiter.
  • Dave Weisberger’s counterpoints: Any S&P vs gold analysis must be paired with corporate earnings (as % of GDP) and money creation. Momentum episodes in gold are real, but central bank accumulation and persistent deficits argue against large nominal gold retracements. Also noted fundamental differences vs 2022 (rate cycle, QT context), and expects rates to be materially lower 18 months out, supporting risk appetite once shutdown uncertainty clears.

Rates, Dollar, and Shutdown/Air Travel Ops

  • Rates/Dollar: DXY > 100; 30Y ~4.7%; 10Y > 4.1%.
  • Air travel: Despite shutdown, Dave Weisberger’s recent MIA–DC/NYC flights were mostly on-time; TSA agents unpaid and morale slipping. He expects the shutdown to end within a week and believes market weakness is more tied to shutdown uncertainty than appreciated.
  • Ethics and portfolios (Eric): Personal preference to avoid “dark-gray” exposures (e.g., certain defense/military-adjacent tech) even when returns are attractive; acknowledges gray areas (Microsoft vs Palantir) and accepts ethical filters can constrain opportunity set.

Key Takeaways

  • Market breadth remains narrow; semis and cyclicals show relative stress even as indices haven’t collapsed. Technicals suggest caution; macro datapoints (ADP) still show resilience.
  • Crypto volatility is high; BTC trend hinges on reclaiming key long-term levels. Altcoins underperform; debates persist over 2022 analogs vs new cycle dynamics.
  • Capital rotation debate: One camp (North Star) sees a multi-year rotation with PMs/energy leadership and equities going “nowhere” in real terms; others (Weisberger) stress money supply, deficits, and earnings normalization, cautioning against gold-only lenses.
  • Energy outlook: Institutional retreat from strict climate screens appears to be accelerating, supporting long-term oil/gas bullishness. AI/energy capex to 2050 seen as massive; engineering constraints underreported.
  • Structural innovation: Permudo’s DC/AC split creates new ways to express dividend vs growth exposure in single names. Tokenizing registries/corporate actions on Chia promises large cost savings and could preview a broader shift in fund/trust administration.
  • Policy and geopolitics: China’s curbs on state-linked chip imports weigh on Nvidia’s China thesis. U.S. shutdown likely nearer to resolution post-election. Venezuela/Guyana tensions noted; oil timelines remain long.

Open Questions to Watch

  • Will the shutdown end quickly and catalyze a risk-on pivot into year-end?
  • Can S&P breadth broaden, or does narrow leadership persist into a more severe correction?
  • Do DC/AC instruments gain traction with traders, RIAs, and structured desks—and will blockchain custody materially compress fees in practice?
  • Does gold consolidate modestly or sustain central-bank-supported nominal strength amid ongoing deficits?
  • Will China’s stance on AI chips persist and force a re-rating of U.S. semi exposure to China demand?
  • Prediction markets: Does sports-heavy flow continue, and do these platforms structurally erode sportsbook share?