Fri --what the Hey 2025 is over-- Day space

The Spaces brought together Leila (host), Shameen, NY, TJ Wilson, Nina, Sean/Shawn, and Sharon to dissect year-end regional dynamics and an alarming forecast for 2026. Core themes included a sharpened Saudi–UAE rivalry allegedly playing out through social media and maritime chokepoint control (Bab al‑Mandab, Red Sea), the formalization of Israel’s ties with Somaliland as part of a broader bid to shape Red Sea trade routes, and a contention that Syria is effectively fragmented among external powers and armed actors amid signals of acquiescence over the Golan Heights map. A major portion focused on Lebanon’s banking collapse: the new draft law to compensate depositors via bonds over four years, the haircut realities, diaspora remittance targeting, and claims of US pressure shaping crisis outcomes. The space also covered Gaza’s ongoing devastation (including UXO concerns), a strong critique of tech surveillance and communications risk, and Leila’s upcoming docuseries on resilient women from Lebanon’s southern frontlines. The session ended with a heated debate on communism, capitalism, and alleged Zionist influence, while participants called for sharing verified resources and amplifying on‑the‑ground voices.

Year-end Twitter Space: MENA Geopolitics, Lebanon’s Banking Crisis, Red Sea Chokepoints, Gaza/Syria Updates, and Media Ethics

Participants and roles

• Layla (host; Lebanese analyst/reporter): Anchored the space, provided geopolitical analysis, detailed Lebanon banking crisis narrative, and strong opinions on Israel/US, GCC dynamics, Syria, and Red Sea strategy.
• Shameen (co-host; humanitarian organizer): Highlighted Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe, promoted on-the-ground testimonies, urged sharing despite platform suppression.
• Brother NY (investigative thread author): Shared a thread alleging intentional retention of UXO to breach ceasefires and implicate CENTCOM.
• Yasalami (large account): Received guidance on source verification and correction practices after amplifying an unverified incident.
• TJ Wilson: Asked focused questions (Jolani’s ambitions in Syria; Somaliland recognition and implications), offered historical references, engaged in ideological debate.
• Sean: Asked about Lebanon winter ground invasion and discussed Layla’s docuseries.
• Nina: Supported Layla’s thesis about Zionist financial/political control across centuries.
• Sharon (UK commentator): Disagreed with the claim that Zionists “control the world,” referenced Ilan Pappé and Marx’s work.

Opening framing: 2026 outlook

Layla opened with a stark forecast: 2026 will be worse globally—entrenching “enslavement” through technology and consent-driven terms of service, deepening hopelessness, and rising fatalities as people “try to explore.” She positioned this as a continuation of patterns observed in 2025.

Platform suppression and housekeeping

Multiple speakers reported audio glitches, shadow bans, and “space not available” warnings. Layla was repeatedly kicked out. Shameen asked listeners to repost the space to counter suppression. Layla stated this session was not a humanitarian space and declined mic requests framed as fundraising/aid appeals; she directed such links to comments and emphasized boundaries.

Lebanon’s banking crisis: law, losses, and alleged external orchestration

• Draft law: Layla described a newly approved government draft (headed to parliament) on returning depositor funds. Key features per her account:

  • Small depositors may receive partial cash and bonds over four years, implying haircuts; larger depositors face significant losses.
  • Those who signed monthly withdrawal agreements (e.g., $400 monthly in USD with parallel LBP conversions) effectively suffered 80–85% haircuts.
  • Others may see 40–70% reductions via bond structures.

• Personal impact: Layla lost two decades of earnings. She recounted withdrawing severely devalued LBP savings to buy generic cancer medication; her father died within a month. She delivered this amid grief and illness, warning listeners of emotional language.

• Currency collapse: She detailed the LBP’s fall from ~1,500 per USD to ~90,000–150,000 during crisis peaks, illustrating how a 75 million LBP account (once ~USD 50k) shrank to a fraction of its value.

• “Sedation” hypothesis: Layla argued the four-year bond horizon aims to pacify the public—especially ~80–90% small depositors—so authorities can push political concessions.

• Alleged US/Israeli design: She asserted the financial collapse was engineered to force Lebanon into maritime border negotiations (which occurred) and next demand land border redemarcation. She outlined a multi-step “hit” plan she claims to have warned officials about since 2015–2019: targeting diaspora remittances (~$6–7B/year), undermining banking secrecy, then pushing on gold reserves. She recounted warning the central bank deputy and banking supervisors (who dismissed concerns) and cited a “US Falcon” who telegraphed intent to break Lebanese banks.

• Political accountability: Layla read a list of Lebanese politicians she alleges supported the draft, proposing that people should “know who their enemies are.” Names were not independently verified in the space.

Intra-GCC rivalry and its regional footprint

• Abu Dhabi vs Riyadh: Layla described an intensifying competition between UAE (specifically Abu Dhabi) and Saudi Arabia. She framed Abu Dhabi as the power center (security, military, espionage) owning most land and budget control, hence the presidency, and as an intervention hub region-wide (Somalia/Somaliland, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Sudan). She contrasted this with six “peacemaker” emirates, saying Abu Dhabi is not.

• Yemen: She claimed the UAE is promoting North/South Yemen division and positioning to control Bab el-Mandeb via Socotra and alignment with Somaliland/Djibouti, thereby pressing Saudi maritime trade.

• Saudi record: Layla said Saudi Arabia has both mediated for border stability and funded wars (notably Syria, with Qatar) causing vast displacement and casualties.

• Druze leader’s tweet: Cited a short-lived tweet by a seasoned Druze politician alleging a normalized Arab state is trying to “curtain” Saudi via Bab el-Mandeb—Layla asserted this is Abu Dhabi.

Syria: de facto partition, Israeli advances, and Jolani’s positioning

• Territory changes: Layla said Israel has recently taken an additional ~30 km² in southern Syria, totaling ~80+ km², and criticized the symbolism of IDF Christmas greetings from Mount Hermon.

• Golan: She claimed the new Syrian government map omits the Golan Heights, reading it as evidence that a deal has been sealed (awaiting signatures, anticipating Trump’s oversight).

• Jolani: Responding to TJ, Layla rejected the notion of a coming Syrian monarchy. She mapped Syria’s fragmentation: south under Israeli sway; northwest under Turkey; northeast under Kurdish control; east under US (oil and “breadbasket”); Damascus/Aleppo pockets under Jolani/HTS. She described Jolani as backed by US/Israel, fields foreign fighters naturalized, and seeking religious validation from Gulf states. Layla highlighted Saudi sending him a piece of the Kaaba’s kiswa to confer religious legitimacy; she called this hypocritical and contrary to Islamic rulings on war (protecting houses of worship, noncombatants).

• Religious sites: Noted attacks on An-Nuri Mosque and Saint Elias Church, condemning such acts as antithetical to Islamic doctrine.

Turkey–Kurd conflict and Israel–Turkey alignment

Layla reiterated her earlier thesis that Turkey and Israel are allied and are “curdening” the region; fighting between Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish groups would continue despite talk of agreements.

Gaza: on-the-ground testimony and ceasefire “UXO” issue

• Shameen urged listeners to share a recent space with Brother Matassim, whose testimony detailed humanitarian catastrophe, hospital conditions, and alleged incidents of Israeli soldiers injured by their own mines/ordnance, initially misrepresented to blame others.
• NY’s thread: Claimed Israel and the “terrorist State Department” prevented UXO clearance to later breach the ceasefire; CENTCOM involvement alleged with screenshots.
• Shameen lamented public fatigue and urged renewed support.

Red Sea chokepoints: Somaliland, Djibouti, Socotra, and Saudi vulnerability

• Strategic map: Layla posted a map and explained Bab el-Mandeb’s pivotal role linking the Red Sea to Gulf of Aden and onward to Suez and the Mediterranean. Control of Djibouti/Somaliland coastlines near the strait is decisive.
• Somaliland: She clarified that US/Israel/UAE have long treated Somaliland as a separate entity (even if not widely recognized internationally) and recently formalized ties. She rejected circulating claims that Palestinians would be relocated to Somaliland—arguing Israel wants total control over chokepoints and would not cede them to a population capable of disrupting Israeli maritime trade.
• Socotra: Cited Israeli–Emirati base presence and tourism; controlling approaches to Gulf of Aden.
• Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat: Said Houthi actions have “bankrupted” the port of Eilat (Aqaba coast), adding pressure on Israeli maritime routes.
• Saudi exposure: Outlined that choking Bab el-Mandeb threatens Saudi Red Sea trade and industrial hubs on that coast (she referred to its “bride of the Red Sea” and petrochemical exports), hence Riyadh’s interest in Sudan’s stability and Egyptian coordination to avoid spillovers.

Lebanon front: winter dynamics, bombardments, and documentation

• Winter ground invasion: Responding to Sean, Layla reiterated that Israel typically avoids ground invasions during winter in Lebanon but continues intensive air strikes—citing deep strikes into the Bekaa (~75 km) and daily martyrdom in the south.
• Media practice: Emphasized using official regional media units for accurate reporting, criticized “special source” branding without credits.
• Docuseries (Press TV): Layla is producing a series profiling resilient women in frontline villages (e.g., Hula, Hadib/Hadeeb). She described new Israeli munitions “dissolving organic matter,” leaving rubble but no bodies—citing cases of “Mahmud and Zaynab” and a disabled elderly neighbor identified only by remnants of a crutch. She praised Press TV’s support despite heavy shadow bans.

Media ethics and corrections

• Advising Yasalami: Layla flagged a misreported viral post about a Chinese Christmas tree incident later confirmed as a short circuit. She recommended best practices:
  • Delete incorrect posts and issue explicit corrections.
  • Alternatively, quote-tweet the erroneous post with a correction to retain reach while restoring credibility.

US vs France banking systems commentary

Layla contrasted banking systems:

• France: She argued France’s financial/banking system is more insulated due to ongoing colonial-era resource structures and powerful domestic capital.
• US: She stated US banks are in a bubble and near insolvency, recalling COVID-era cash withdrawal limits as proof of liquidity constraints, continued high interest rates, real estate weakness, and recent bank failures. She characterized Trump’s Middle East “protection money” campaign as extraction without actual protection, citing episodes like Israeli strikes on Qatar despite funds.

Tech and operational security

Layla warned that Israeli technical surveillance deeply penetrates regional communications (phones, apps, smart TVs). She referenced Nasrallah’s November 2023 warning to discard phones and criticized ongoing OPSEC failures leading to targeting of buildings where fighters/families were present. Despite this, she argued Israel still cannot suppress Lebanese resistance without mass civilian elimination—emphasizing broad anti-Israeli sentiment beyond formal membership.

Ideological exchange: Marxism/Leninism, capitalism, and Zionism

• TJ’s view: Citing historical scholarship, TJ argued Marxism–Leninism developed in opposition to exploitation, influenced by the Paris Commune, and cannot be reduced to Zionist control. He rejected “horseshoe theory” and traced liberal racism, slavery, and private power’s unaccountability.
• Layla’s/Nina’s view: Layla and Nina asserted that Zionist networks have historically financed, infiltrated, and steered both communist and capitalist poles (from Bolshevism onward), using propaganda and financial leverage (e.g., referencing Rothschild/Balfour correspondences, Moses Montefiore’s funding early settlements). Layla cited Lazar Kaganovich as an example of a Jewish Soviet official implicated in mass Christian killings, and argued elites behind ideological systems dine together while nations fight.
• Sharon’s view: Disputed the “Zionists control the world” thesis, pointed to Ilan Pappé’s documentation of Zionist lobbying and Marx’s theories on liberation; Layla responded that selective Israeli intellectual narratives may bury “poisoned” lines within otherwise credible works.
• Note: This segment reflects a heated debate; some claims are controversial and disputed. The space recorded the competing viewpoints without resolving them.

Content moderation and organizational updates

• Humanitarian boundary: Layla has stopped handling funds due to accusations; Shameen continues aid and was reportedly scrutinized by UK authorities with no wrongdoing found.
• NGOs: Layla alleged certain organizations (e.g., World Central Kitchen, Gaza Holocaust Foundation) have roles in intelligence gathering/infiltration under the guise of aid; this is a claim made in the space and not independently substantiated here.
• Website: Layla plans to launch a site for independent reporting, facing technical delays with banking links; she asked for future financial support to maintain independence.

Notable rhetoric and terms

• “Antichrist seat” (Layla’s preferred label for the Israeli entity) and “Antichrist army” (applied to US Bible Belt and aligned European supporters).
• “Electronic armies” (UAE–Saudi social media warfare).
• “Curdening” (alleged Israel–Turkey strategy to reshape the region via Kurdish dynamics).
• “Sedate the public via bonds” (Lebanon depositor strategy).
• “Black horse” (Yemen/Houthis unexpectedly disrupting Israeli/US plans).

Action items and next steps

• Share and listen: Shameen requested listeners to share the Matassim space; Layla urged reading NY’s UXO thread despite strong language.
• Watch docuseries: Press TV’s series (weekly releases) on resilient Lebanese women; Layla is filming ~15 segments weekly with polished edits forthcoming.
• Legal/financial explainer: Layla will dissect the Lebanese draft law in Arabic with English subtitles for broader understanding.
• OPSEC: Reduce digital footprints; heed warnings about phone/app/smart TV surveillance.

Risks and developments to monitor

• Lebanon: Progress and terms of the draft banking law; potential political trades linked to depositor “sedation”; continued deep aerial bombardments; possible civil disruptions vs strategic avoidance of full civil war.
• Syria: Formalization of de facto partitions; any map changes; Jolani’s power consolidation attempts and Gulf legitimization; attacks on religious sites.
• Red Sea: Further formal ties with Somaliland; control of Bab el-Mandeb; Socotra militarization; Houthi impact on Israeli/Eilat routes; Sudan stability and Egyptian–Saudi posture.
• Gaza: Ceasefire conditions, UXO clearance transparency, humanitarian access, and the durability of public engagement.

Summary of the host’s core thesis

Layla contends that financial instruments, chokepoint control, and information warfare are orchestrated by US/Israeli and allied networks (including Abu Dhabi) to reshape the region’s borders, trade routes, and political outcomes. In Lebanon, she views the banking law as a tool to pacify depositors while external actors extract concessions. In the Red Sea, she sees a coordinated strategy to dominate Bab el-Mandeb via Somaliland/Djibouti/Socotra to pressure Saudi Arabia and secure Israeli maritime interests. In Syria, she assesses a settled partition and warns against religious legitimation for warlords. She combines these geopolitical claims with a personal narrative of loss, documenting civilian resilience and alleged new weapons effects, while urging professional media ethics and operational security.