STOCK MARKET TALK | NEW 2X CAPPED ACCELERATED ETFs

StocksOnSpaces avatar
Stocks On Spaces
@StocksOnSpacesAug 23, 2025

The Spaces dissected a broad market pullback and what it signals for positioning into Jackson Hole and late-summer seasonality. Evan hosted a panel of traders and investors including Brian (technical trader), Wolfie, Stock Talk Weekly, Hamid, Kevin (options), and Paul from Leverage Shares. The group agreed the tape showed short‑term risk‑off, with many high‑beta/AI leaders failing intraday EMAs and testing 20/50‑day MAs, while defensives, staples, and homebuilders showed relative strength. Brian framed rotation as style/timeframe rotation rather than simple sector shifts; Wolfie highlighted key tests on the S&P 20‑day versus the QQQ’s slip, IPO softness, and Nvidia earnings risk; Apple and Meta were discussed in the context of events and headlines. Stock Talk Weekly outlined a procedural risk framework (daily/weekly structure, SPY 21‑EMA, weekly closes) and walked through names like GENI, PENN/ESPN Bet, APLD, SOUN, SNAP, UPS, and VKTX. Kevin added options-focused tactics (long‑dated calls/diagonals, seasonality) and cautioned on AI infrastructure commoditization over time. Debate flared over Chamath’s new SPAC (contrarian pre‑deal trade vs. credibility concerns). In the final segment, Paul introduced “Cap Accelerated ETFs” (2x upside to a monthly cap, 1x downside), their mechanics, tickers, and use cases as a structured-note-like tool in an ETF wrapper.

Stocks on Spaces: Market Pullback, Rotation, Risk Management, and New ETF Tools

Participants and roles

  • Evan (host, Stocks on Spaces): steers discussion, surfaces audience questions, and news clarifications.
  • Brian (technical trader): short-term technicals, sector/style rotation framework, disciplined risk.
  • “Options Mike” (mentioned/impersonated; struggled to connect).
  • Wilfie/Woffy (macro/technicals): index levels, seasonality, Apple/Nvidia set-ups, catalysts.
  • Stock Talk Weekly (“Stock Talk”): swing/position trader; frameworks for hedging and adding; thematic baskets (NFL x Disney), single-name technicals.
  • Kevin (options strategist): tactical option structures, sector rotations, seasonal plays.
  • Hamid (long-oriented tech investor): fundamentals-first takes (META, SNAP, SOUN), portfolio context (HOOD, RKLB, RIVN, BMBL).
  • Frank (brief check-in on intraday flow/UNH puts).
  • Paul (Leverage Shares by Themes): introduces new Cap Accelerated ETFs and mechanics.
  • Gary (ETF user; non-options trader): perspective on using the new products.

Market context and tone

  • Broad “risk-off” session with persistent intraday selling and failed rallies across many recent leaders. Evan cites: SPY ~-0.7%, QQQ ~-1.5%; many high-beta tech names notably softer. Palantir (PLTR) singled out as a large drawdown after an extended run.
  • Brian: evidence of froth in recent weeks (small-cap/“spec” bursts, thematic funds’ inflows, celebrity traders returning, new SPAC chatter). Technicals confirmed with many names unable to reclaim intraday 20-EMA on 5-minute charts—sign of steady distribution.
  • Wilfie: rotations into defensives/utilities/energy showing; leadership indecision; watch whether S&P 500 holds its 20-day moving average while QQQ has already sliced through. Near-term “risk-off” with Jackson Hole and FOMC minutes as catalysts.
  • Seasonality: multiple speakers note August/September are historically weak; today’s risk-paring ahead of Jackson Hole seen as prudent. Retail flow seasonality into September also typically soft.

Technical framework and risk discipline

  • Brian (timeframe-first discipline):
    • Rotation isn’t just sector-to-sector; think style/timeframe/frequency. Some sectors (rails, airlines, staples) are poor trading vehicles—better as investments.
    • Watch the 50-day on recent high-flyers: pulling back to the 50-day is “normal in uptrends,” failure there can signal intermediate trend change.
    • Emphasizes respecting timeframe, risk parameters, and waiting for price to lead the narrative.
  • Stock Talk (process):
    • Evaluates structure across daily/weekly/monthly per ticker; below daily for intraday is not his process.
    • Index overlay: daily structure matters most for indices; the 21-EMA breach often triggers hedges; weekly closes are crucial after a hard sell.
    • Adds to core positions on material monthly pullbacks, not every daily dip; trims/cuts trading positions that lose structure by week’s end.
  • Kevin (tactical options): uses long-dated calls (LEAPS), diagonals, and cash-secured puts at defined technical levels to “scalp” rebounds in damaged names without committing large equity capital; leverages elevated IV to finance via covered call overwrites.

Macro/catalysts to watch

  • Jackson Hole (Powell Friday): multiple speakers expect balanced language; market likely squeezes questions rather than delivers clarity—risk of “hawkish surprise” cited given prior Jackson Hole tops.
  • FOMC minutes: two dissenters noted; tone details matter.
  • Nvidia earnings (next week): a deeper flush toward the 50-day could set an attractive long setup into earnings per Wilfie; high sensitivity for broader AI complex.
  • Apple event: expected mid-September; Wilfie flags potential pullback toward 200-day/previous breakout zone (~221–220) as a healthy reset ahead of the cycle.
  • Google hardware event (foldables) this week: Wilfie doubts significant iPhone share impact; “blue bubbles” iMessage network effects remain powerful.
  • Geopolitics: Russia/Ukraine/Trump headlines—watch Nat Gas and pipeline names for potential volatility/direction.

Sector rotation and leadership

  • Defensive clustering observed: utilities, select energy, consumer staples bid; homebuilders green intraday despite broader weakness.
  • Momentum unwind: AI hardware/data center leaders softening while previously beaten software (CRM, DUOL) had bounced into resistance, now stalling.
  • IPO bid fading: cited example of a new listing breaking below issue price (speaker referenced “Figma” day-of, but broader point was that the prior IPO-chasing phase has flipped).

Single-name discussions and levels (as discussed)

  • Palantir (PLTR): sharp pullback after parabolic run; watch 50-day for “normal” uptrend retrace; failure would signal bigger regime change. Brian notes many clamored to “buy the dip” at highs but struggle to buy in real-time drawdowns.
  • ASTS/OKLO: both nearing their 50-day; reaction at that moving average will be informative for short-term tone.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): down ~3.5% on the day; Wilfie sketches a “healthy” corrective path toward 50-day as a potential setup into earnings.
  • Apple (AAPL): relative strength vs. mega-cap peers; Wilfie watching a potential 4–5% dip toward the 200-day near prior breakout (roughly 221–220) as attractive reset; Evan notes iPhone event timing fits that window.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): post-earnings action lacked thrust; repeatedly sold at ~520 then “dried out.”
  • Meta (META): Evan clarifies headline misread—story about internal restructuring and staffing, not “cutting AI spending.” Hamid very constructive on META’s execution and consumer hardware learning curve (Ray-Ban v3 potentially “tens of millions” units; battery life is gating factor). Evan plans to buy next-gen smart glasses.
  • Oracle (ORCL): budget caution headlines add to sentiment headwinds; part of broader AI/hardware digestion.
  • Uber (UBER) / Lyft (LYFT): UBER remains strong, likely to break 100 if trend persists; LYFT no daily breakdown, could retest 50-day near 15; both show relative resilience.
  • UPS / FedEx (UPS/FDX): audience asked; Stock Talk prefers FDX (recaptured 9/21-EMA, room toward ~245 test). Kevin frames UPS as a seasonal/technical “scalp via options”: historical holiday bid, 2006/2020 price memory near ~85, elevated volume suggests handoff; suggests longer-dated calls or defined-risk structures; acknowledges labor/headwind risks.
  • Applied Digital (APLD): chart praised by Stock Talk (accumulation, above 9-EMA); Hamid flags valuation (≈$4B cap vs. ≈$200M rev) and questions fundamental justification despite technical strength.
  • SoundHound (SOUN): Stock Talk likes technicals (golden cross, low-volume pullback to 21-EMA, strong weekly); Hamid flags premium valuation (≈$5.4B cap vs. ≈$130M rev, P/S >40) and acquisitive growth; no position by Stock Talk.
  • Snapchat (SNAP): Stock Talk avoids—weak fundamentals, persistent distribution, below key MAs on all timeframes. Kevin outlines a tactical long-dated call “scalp” idea from defined support (e.g., $8 calls out to April/June) to monetize occasional squeezes; Hamid counters valuation is now the most attractive historically (~2.2x sales, still teen growth, persistent teen/20s user grip) but acknowledges monetization/cash burn concerns.
  • Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): plunged ~40% on oral GLP-1 study tolerability concerns (higher GI-related discontinuations noted). Stock Talk isn’t in it; technically: blew through daily supports, found the 200-week as a potential bounce spot; mixed Street takes cited (Truist/BTIG/Raymond James/Morgan Stanley supportive, Citi cut target). Kevin: setbacks could add 12–18 months; outlines LEAPS + diagonal covered call approach or cash-secured puts only if one has high conviction.
  • ZETA (Zeta Global) and TTD (The Trade Desk): asked by listeners; Kevin notes TTD has seen bullish flow out to next year, but recommends letting the post-earnings dust settle; potential for takeout chatter exists if execution lags.
  • GENI (Genius Sports): cornerstone in Stock Talk’s “NFL x Disney collision” basket; exclusive NFL data positioning, PKG/Nike ad tie-in, and expansion to prediction/betting markets (e.g., Polymarket/Kalshi) seen as neutral-to-positive for GENI given data royalty role regardless of sportsbook channel shift.
  • PENN (Penn Entertainment): more interesting after chatter that new ESPN app will directly deep-link to ESPN Bet; potential traffic funnel from Disney’s media footprint.
  • Fubo/Hulu live TV: Stock Talk discussed a prospective transaction and Sept 30 proxy vote within a broader thesis that NFL content moving to Disney properties creates mid-cap downstream winners. Note: discussion reflects speaker’s view; verify corporate actions independently.
  • Target Hospitality (TH): cited Stifel note (as mentioned) raising PT (7.5→11) on a shift into data center management (new $43M 2-yr contract; pipeline suggested). Stock up despite broad selling.

SPAC debate: Chamath’s return

  • Several speakers (Stock Talk/Hamid) criticize Chamath’s track record (SPCE/OpenDoor/Clover noted) and credibility; do not plan to buy his new SPAC.
  • Counterpoint (Stocky): as a contrarian trade, a high-profile sponsor might source a better-than-cohort target, creating pre/near-deal trading opportunities—though fundamental long-term outcomes remain questionable.

How panelists positioned and managed risk today

  • Brian: stepped back, watching 50-day reactions; risk-off for short-term traders; longer-term investors not forced to act yet.
  • Stock Talk: took a “chill” approach; no trades today; monitoring weekly closes to confirm/deny structural damage; will hedge on SPY daily 21-EMA breaks; trims “bench” names before core; holds 17 positions; notes homebuilders/staples/healthcare/energy showed relative strength intraday.
  • Kevin: positioned some protection (put spreads), given Friday risk (Jackson Hole) and seasonality; emphasizes finding tactical option entries in value/defensive areas as rotations rarely last more than 2–3 days.
  • Hamid: portfolio down ~4% on the day; top weights RKLB and HOOD weak; sits on cash, potential add candidates on further drawdown include META, RIVN, BMBL; highlights Zoom as still best-in-class product yet challenged on growth.
  • Frank: UNH puts put on yesterday (300s), covered midday; noted low volume on the day despite breadth.

Indices and key levels (as discussed)

  • SPY: lost 9-EMA; 21-EMA seen as pivotal for momentum regime; late-Feb historical analog cited (loss of 21-EMA → March/April weakness). Weekly closes this week are “very important.”
  • QQQ: slipped the 20-day decisively; quick 2–3% air pockets possible when 20-day fails.
  • Apple: watching potential pullback into the 200-day/old breakout (~221–220) for reset ahead of iPhone cycle.
  • General: multiple prior attempts to correct have been shallow; absent an exogenous shock, pullbacks can be bought—but traders want confirmation via price/MA behavior first.

New product spotlight: Cap Accelerated ETFs (Leverage Shares by Themes)

  • Tickers (as presented): TSLO (Tesla), NVDO (Nvidia), TLO0 (Palantir), COIO (Coinbase), MSO (MicroStrategy). Link pinned by host; full details on issuer site.
  • Design intent: deliver approximately 2x upside exposure up to a monthly cap, with only 1x downside exposure.
  • Mechanics (Paul):
    • Options-based, no swaps; implemented as a structured note inside an ETF wrapper.
    • Core legs conceptually: long call + short put to replicate 1x delta to the underlying, plus additional long calls for upside acceleration, and purchased downside protection. Strike selection/reset specifics handled by PM (Calvin Sai to join Thursday for deeper dive).
    • Cap set on the last business day of each month (next: Aug 29), applies for the following calendar month; volatility helps set higher caps.
    • Daily liquidity and transparency: site shows full-month cap and the remaining cap if entering mid-month, plus the options value if exiting.
    • Use cases: for traders who want amplified upside but cannot (or prefer not to) take 2x downside or manage options; keeps users “in the game” through drawdowns while preserving accelerated upside to the cap; can roll month-to-month as caps reset.
  • Panel reactions:
    • Stock Talk: “smart” way to package leverage for popular retail names while controlling downside.
    • Gary (non-options trader): welcomes access to option-like payoffs without having to manage Greeks; ETF wrapper is simple and flexible.
    • Host notes potential appeal around catalysts (earnings/events) where 2x upside with 1x downside and daily liquidity may be a superior tool to swaps-based levered ETFs or single-name options for some traders.

Notable news/context nuggets

  • Meta restructuring headline was misinterpreted by some outlets; not an AI spending cut, per Evan’s read.
  • Nvidia/China: noise around licensing for China-market chips; host expects license regime to persist with product tailoring—monitor, but no hard conclusions drawn.
  • Analyst chatter: Robinhood PT hike to ~$160 (Hamid recalls Bernstein); NVDA PT raised (TD mentioned by host). Stifel’s TH upgrade; several supportive VKTX notes despite drawdown.

Practical takeaways

  • Respect timeframe: trade your plan—technical pullbacks to the 50-day are normal; losing the 21-day with weekly closes below is where many panelists add hedges or reduce exposure.
  • Let price lead: buy-the-dip chatter is easy at highs and hard on real drawdowns; define risk at moving averages and let reaction drive decisions.
  • Seasonality and catalysts: August/September weakness, Jackson Hole, Fed minutes, and NVDA earnings argue for patience and protection; consider scaling/hedging rather than binary shifts.
  • Rotation isn’t monolithic: leadership can pause while defensives bid; many “boring” groups held up—opportunities for non-momo traders.
  • Options provide precision: long-dated calls/diagonals/cash-secured puts can express contrarian tactical ideas (e.g., SNAP) with bounded risk.
  • New tools: Cap Accelerated ETFs offer 2x upside to a cap with 1x downside—an alternative for non-options traders or those wanting a defined-profile approach in single-name trades.