STOCK MARKET TALK

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Stocks On Spaces
@StocksOnSpacesSep 15, 2025

The Spaces dissected a risk-on market backdrop heading into Fed week, mixing single‑name setups with macro guardrails. Early chatter covered mega-cap milestones (Alphabet discussed as crossing $3T), Amazon’s AR sports plans, and a long segment debating Apple’s innovation trajectory. Mike and Wolfie argued Apple has slipped into safe, non-innovative utility mode, citing missteps in spatial computing and senior AI talent departures, while Brian countered that Apple’s cash, brand, and optionality still enable a future "next act," with leadership succession a potential catalyst. The room then weighed bubble dynamics: leaders levitating above rising 9/21-day EMAs, the S&P well over its 200-day, record hedged inflows suggesting not-yet-euphoria, and VIX rate-of-change as the risk tell into the Fed. Tesla’s standout catalyst was Elon Musk’s ~$1B open-market buy—framed as vote-aligned, technically constructive but near resistance, with calls rich vs puts. On rotations, Meta’s glasses/AI day drew enthusiasm; nuclear remained a high-conviction theme (Energy Fuels, Centrus) with outsized institutional volume; Lyft’s rerating case persisted; and DigitalOcean screened as a timing/value candidate on record volume. Yahoo Finance’s Allie previewed a likely 25 bp cut with dissenters, wider dot dispersion, and a melt-up vs correction risk balance given labor cooling, tariff pass-through, and still-wary sentiment.

Market recap and session overview

  • Host (Evan) kicked off with a market check: QQQ +0.7%, SPY +0.4%, Apple steady, Tesla strong intraday before fading. Alphabet (Google) celebrated a $3T market cap milestone. Broadcom surpassed Saudi Aramco in market cap rankings. Meta has an event on Wednesday; Amazon reportedly preparing augmented‑reality football coverage (Financial Times).
  • Color: The Nasdaq has now posted 9 consecutive up days, an unusually strong run for what’s often a soft seasonal month.

Apple: innovation, AI, leadership, and competitive posture

  • Wolfie (skeptical):
    • Apple has lost senior AI talent repeatedly in recent weeks; the firm feels less attractive to elite engineers than in prior cycles.
    • Critiques execution on “spatial computing” and the premium headset path; Apple “missed” a chance to pivot earlier to lightweight smart glasses (where Meta appears to be focusing). Says Apple sometimes scraps rather than revamps.
    • Knock on messaging/vision from leadership; parallels Google’s historical messaging issues under Sundar Pichai before the stock’s recent run.
  • Mike (bearish on innovation):
    • Apple is now a stable, utility‑like large tech company; not “innovating” in the way iPod/iPhone once were.
    • Doesn’t expect Tim Cook to do a large, splashy AI acquisition to redefine the company.
    • Asks “what’s next?” beyond iterative iPhone/watch updates; wants to see a breakthrough before reallocating heavily.
  • Brian (balanced/constructive):
    • Big Tech doesn’t have to reprise past greatness in the same way; Meta was written off at $80 then reinvented itself.
    • Apple has cash, brand, distribution, and talent depth to mount a credible “next act.” Don’t count them out, but he acknowledges they’re not the “hip” company today.
    • Hypothesis: If Tim Cook stepped down, shares likely pop on leadership reset expectations (execution “transition era” under Cook, next act under new operator).
  • Evan (host):
    • Sees the “clear pathway” in smart glasses; most excited about Meta’s execution here near‑term, while questioning Apple’s timing/ability to compete in that form factor over the next 5–10 years.
  • Other points:
    • Siri’s lagging quality is emblematic of AI gaps.
    • Casual jab: “Cosmic orange AirPods” and sports‑team colorways aren’t innovation.
    • Jokes about Ethereum‑as‑treasury “lever” underscore market’s hunger for bolder moves.

Are we in a bubble? Corrections vs crashes, positioning, and breadth

  • Mike: Names like Alphabet, Oracle, Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron are moving with bubble‑like velocity. He’s not calling an imminent top, but worries that without a healthy pullback the eventual unwind could be severe. He’d welcome even a pullback to the 50‑day MAs to reset.
  • Stock Talk (constructive but eyes open):
    • Agrees we’re in a bubble, but this isn’t dot‑com—there’s real productivity on the other side of AI spend if it materializes within ~2 years. If not, air comes out of leaders.
    • Market “crashes” don’t occur with the S&P above the 200‑day moving average; 2022 was a grinding bear market/correction rather than a crash.
    • Record equity inflows are unusually well‑hedged (Bloomberg/Lisa): not euphoria; euphoria would be unhedged.
    • Framework: Stay long while leaders hold 9/21‑day EMAs and the S&P holds key moving averages; reduce exposure only when structural damage appears (e.g., below the 200‑day, leadership breaking daily/weekly structure). He rarely goes all‑cash; trims leverage and peripherals, keeps core holdings.
  • Wolfie (flow/derivatives lens):
    • Options skew doesn’t show euphoria: near‑dated, out‑of‑the‑money calls not bid the way prior blow‑offs looked (e.g., 2021). Three‑month 25D call vols still subdued.
    • To force a sharp reset, either an unpriced exogenous shock (flywheel from 0DTE flows) or a real chase into upside calls needs to materialize first.
    • VIX rate of change matters more than absolute level; a ROC > ~50% in a compressed window is the red flag (barring exogenous events). Today’s VIX pop looked like pre‑FOMC positioning, not a standalone signal.
  • Brian: We’re likely mid‑innings (5th–6th) of an extended cycle; personality/tribal stocks proliferate in bubble regimes. He expects higher over the next year with intermittent corrections.
  • Extension check (Speaker 4): S&P ~9% above its 200‑day—extended but within a “normal” 10–12% zone seen in 2018/2021/2024.

Fed week: baseline, dissenters, and the dot plot

  • Allie (Yahoo Finance):
    • Baseline: 25 bps cut is widely priced; the story is the statement language, dissent count, and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP/dot plot).
    • Dissent risk: Waller and Bowman have telegraphed preference for 50 bps; watch if a newly confirmed official (she referenced Steven Miron) adds a dovish dissent.
    • Market reaction paths: If easing path (dots) is less than priced, equities could wobble despite a cut. Conversely, too‑aggressive cuts risk a “melt‑up” then a sharp correction.
    • Macro cross‑currents: labor market cooling (low‑hire/low‑fire dynamic, youth most affected), rising long‑term inflation expectations, sentiment still pessimistic despite highs. Early tariff pass‑through showing in CPI; firms have absorbed some costs but consumer pass‑through likely to rise into H2.
  • Mike’s Fed take: Expects 25 bps with “data‑dependent” tone; his rough trajectory guess was multiple cuts through mid‑2026.
  • Wolfie: Watch whether Powell frames this as the start of a cycle vs a one‑off. Market is leaning to “start of something”; if Powell conditions cuts strictly on data with inflation caveats, near‑term equity reaction is the tell.

Tesla: $1B insider buy, comp vote, and near‑term setup

  • Facts discussed:
    • Elon Musk bought ~$1B of TSLA shares on the open market Friday ahead of the compensation package vote; intent likely to bolster voting power. Relative to his ~$400B net worth, it’s small, but still a historic‑scale CEO purchase and a clear vote of confidence.
  • Stock Talk (long‑term bull):
    • He supports performance‑based compensation at massive benchmarks (e.g., revenue/profitability hurdles, multi‑trillion market cap targets) vs fixed mega‑pay regardless of outcomes. Last time many thought the hurdles were unattainable—and Tesla cleared them in a few years.
    • He expects Musk to vote his shares this time; a Delaware judge previously voided the prior package despite shareholder support, sharpening the focus on a clean revote.
  • Wolfie (trader’s lens):
    • Took 30x gains on near‑term calls as the breakout hit resistance; calls were trading at double the put vol at comparable tenor/distance—too rich to chase. Booked 80–85% of the trade.
  • Mike: Today’s fade after the gap was unsurprising given front‑running and the three‑day run; he shorted early for a tactical trade.

Rotation and trade ideas across sectors

  • Mega‑cap tech and platforms
    • Meta (META):
      • Wolfie: Broke a downtrend; event Wednesday could be a rotation target if Google stalls. Watch 755–760 support; 780–790 near‑term upside if it holds.
      • Evan: Very bullish on Meta’s long‑run path (smart glasses/human‑computer interface). Sees 5–10x potential over a multi‑year horizon under Zuckerberg’s execution.
    • Amazon (AMZN): Wolfie sees a constructive setup if it reclaims recent highs and holds the 50‑day; AR‑enhanced NFL coverage is a new vector (ad and engagement optionality).
    • Microsoft (MSFT): Potentially material upside if it takes a sizeable stake in OpenAI’s private placement and OpenAI later pursues what could be the largest IPO in history.
    • Operator rankings (Stock Talk): Larry Ellison and Mark Zuckerberg are executing at an elite level now in Big Tech (noting Ellison isn’t CEO but is the key operator at Oracle).
  • Software/value catch‑up
    • DigitalOcean (DOCN):
      • Stock Talk started a position (~3.7% weight), keying off an August highest‑volume‑ever (HVE) month that often marks durable bottoms. Wants a monthly close > ~$36–37 (confluence of 9/21/20‑month MAs) to clear supply and open a path into the 40s/50s.
      • Sam/Logical: DOCN and GitLab screen cheap vs peers; DOCN EV/Sales ~5x with 14% topline growth and >35% growth in $100K+ customers; they hold leaps.
    • GitLab (GTLB): Still below its 200‑day; seen as part of the same “suppressed software” basket that could catch rotation.
  • AI infrastructure / nuclear
    • Nuclear basket (Stock Talk):
      • Energy Fuels (UUUU) and Centrus Energy (LEU) are his largest weights. Both posted multi‑quarter record volumes; UUUU +16% today; LEU approaching ATHs.
      • Quarterly charts show unprecedented institutional accumulation (multiple all‑time high volume quarters back‑to‑back). He added; UUUU now >10% of his book. Theme viewed as secular, not hype.
    • SMR/nuclear policy: US eyeing larger uranium reserves to reduce Russian dependence and support nuclear growth—a tailwind for the complex.
  • Sports media and betting
    • Genius Sports (GENI): Amazon’s AR sports push and strong Week 1 NFL handle support live‑data monetization. GENI is “book margin agnostic.”
    • Fubo (FUBO): Acting well into a late‑September corporate milestone (speaker referenced a merger date with Hulu Live TV). Still a smaller conviction than nuclear for Stock Talk, but constructive within his sports media basket.
    • PENN and DraftKings (DKNG): Both traded heavy; possible emerging concern that prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi) siphon incremental volumes and compress book holds via higher ad spend and competition. Stock Talk is reassessing PENN; no heavy‑volume sell signal yet.
  • Cybersecurity
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD): Strong bounce off the 200‑day; Wolfie took profits after ~10% move.
  • Transportation/consumer platforms
    • Uber (UBER): Broke out toward ATHs; Wolfie sees $100 as a plausible near‑term magnet.
    • Lyft (LYFT): Stock Talk’s positional long from $13s (thesis: double‑digit TTM growth shouldn’t trade at 1x sales; inflecting to profitability). Now ~1.3–1.4x sales at $20+; his Jan calls +250%. Targeting ~$30 before reassessing.
  • Space/aerospace
    • Rocket Lab (RKLB): Filed an ATM offering up to $750M (BofA/Canaccord/BTIG as agents). Stock Talk favors space firms using strength to raise capital.
    • Kratos (KTOS): Reclaimed $70; remains a quiet leader with persistent bids.
  • Healthcare/insurtech
    • Oscar Health (OSCR): $315M offering announced; Stock Talk remains skeptical of sustaining “tech‑like” multiples in care delivery names.
    • Liquidia (LQDA): Logical cut on momentum loss below the 21‑EMA, then re‑entered on a stick‑save reclaim; back above the 21‑EMA.
  • Retail and BNPL/credit
    • Gap (GPS): Logical sees a “sleeper” upside setup—cheap (~7x EV/earnings), low IV, new ad creative gaining TikTok traction (potential American Eagle‑style surprise). Multi‑brand leverage via Old Navy/Banana Republic.
    • BNPL: Affirm will extend BNPL to Apple Pay in‑store. With rates falling, funding costs ease and volumes could expand. Klarna’s valuation looks “not too demanding” into a lower‑rate regime. Broader tailwind if M2 re‑accelerates.
    • Upstart (UPST)/LendingClub (LC): Both closing strong; lenders could benefit from lower rates, possible deregulation, and greater balance‑sheet capacity to hold loans.
  • Robotics/AI infra and crypto adjacency
    • Serve Robotics (SERV): Logical likes the weekly breakout; aiming for $60–80M run‑rate exit in 2024, ~27% short interest; EV/sales ~10x on forward run‑rate but early S‑curve optionality.
    • Galaxy Digital (GLXY/BRPHF): Straddles crypto exposure and data center/AI infrastructure (Helios); potential beneficiary of the second‑wind AI buildout (Oracle’s blowout cloud orders cited as the “Jensen 2.0” moment for infra demand).
  • Nvidia / CoreWeave mechanics
    • Wolfie flagged Nvidia’s agreements around platform inventory and potential “buyback/price control” dynamics across third‑party platform sellers (e.g., CoreWeave)—a way to avoid gray‑market distortions and manage end‑pricing.

Flows, hedging, and risk framework (how speakers operate)

  • Stock Talk’s operating model:
    • Stay long while market structure remains intact; lower exposure when the S&P loses the 200‑day and leadership loses daily/weekly uptrends.
    • Ignore CTA positioning; watch net equity inflows and the hedged vs unhedged mix; the current record share of hedged inflows suggests we are not at euphoria.
    • Core positions (he cited Robinhood, Tesla, Amazon, Centrus, “Nebius/Nebula”) are held through cycles given low cost basis. Peripherals and leverage are trimmed tactically.
  • Wolfie’s derivatives tells:
    • For “event” weeks (like FOMC), watch short‑dated options imbalances (0DTE) and VIX ROC. December’s FOMC setup saw VIX 15 → 28 in two sessions with a 3% one‑day selloff; this week’s short‑dated hedging is lighter than then, so a similar short‑sharp vol spike is possible if Powell surprises.

Corporate actions and headlines noted

  • Offerings: Rocket Lab (ATM up to $750M), Oscar Health (~$315M), “Nebius/Nebula” completed an upsized offering (oversubscribed; referenced increase from ~$2.7B to ~$4.2B total, per Sam/Stock Talk), several space names encouraged to raise into strength.
  • Buybacks: Chipotle expanded repurchase authorization by $500M.
  • Sports/AR media: Amazon to launch AR‑enhanced football coverage; feeds into ad and micro‑wagering narratives (benefits data providers like GENI and platforms with innovative UX like HOOD).

Macro sidebars: USD, liquidity, and sentiment

  • Logical: With DXY down from 109 to 97, holding cash is costly in real terms. As front‑end yields fall (e.g., money market moving from ~5% to closer to ~3.5%), some capital may rotate from cash‑equivalents back into risk assets.
  • Sam: If the Fed eases and M2 expands—and if QT slows/hints of future QE appear—liquidity and “don’t fight the Fed” logic favor staying constructive unless data materially deteriorate.

Programming note

  • The group will host a live FOMC session Wednesday: go live ~10 minutes before the decision; Powell’s press conference carried with live reaction.

Participants (names as identified on‑air)

  • Evan (host)
  • Stock Talk (primary equity/position trader)
  • Mike (macro/technicals, tactical trading)
  • Brian (balanced long‑term investor)
  • Wolfie (options/flow and technicals)
  • Speaker 4 (unidentified; interjected stats/one‑liners)
  • Allie (Yahoo Finance, Fed/macro reporter)
  • Sam (macro/equity, event‑driven)
  • Logical (growth/AI/crypto‑adjacent and special situations)

Key takeaways

  • Macro: Base case is a 25 bps cut with “data‑dependent” tone; dissenters likely; dots and Powell’s language matter more than the cut itself.
  • Market state: Extended and bubbly in places, but not euphoric—hedged inflows dominate; leaders hold short‑term MAs; breadth within leaders remains strong.
  • Risk trigger to watch: VIX rate of change and 0DTE dynamics around FOMC; loss of 9/21‑EMAs in leaders and S&P 200‑day would change posture.
  • Themes: AI infrastructure (cloud, data centers), nuclear fuel cycle, software value/catch‑up, sports media + live data/AR, pragmatic consumer fintech/credit.
  • Stocks with conviction repeated by speakers: UUUU, LEU, LYFT (re‑rating case), META (event/long‑term HCI), DOCN (HVE bottom + value), KTOS, UBER, GENI. Watching PENN/DKNG sentiment vs prediction markets.