Everything WagerFi

The Spaces recapped a newly launched peer-to-peer wagering platform that enables 1v1 bets on sports outcomes and crypto price levels, with secure escrow and social discovery via sharing wager cards to X. The host explained an initial plan to use AI (OpenAI + Perplexity) to parse natural-language custom markets, but accuracy issues with dates/times made it unreliable for money at stake; the team switched to structured data via API Sports and CoinGecko websockets (with live price charts) and will revisit AI once fully verifiable sources are in place. Onboarding currently uses Privy and Phantom, with a potential custodial wallet option for users hesitant to connect wallets. Fees are 2% per side (4% total), with 20% of daily platform revenue recycled to the community: 8% to native-token holders, 7% via 100 microdrops/day, and 5% buybacks (with burn supported). A four-tier referral program tops out at 25% and doesn’t fall once reached; onboarding a new user grants 25% immediately. Roadmap items include expanding coverage (boxing, esports, possibly stocks), new wager types (market-cap flip, pooled betting with odds to undercut bookies), cross-chain to Base and Sui (excluding Ethereum), and a future mobile app. Marketing plans include hiring a community manager and more Spaces; feedback and feature requests are invited.

Peer-to-Peer Wagering Platform – Twitter Space Summary and Notes

Session context and participants

• Format: Impromptu AMA-style update without the planned live video walkthrough due to technical issues.
• Attendance: ~15 live listeners.
• Identified speaker: Host (name not provided in the recording). No other speakers were identified by name.

What the product is

• The platform is a peer-to-peer wagering application enabling one-on-one predictions on:
  • Sports outcomes (e.g., UFC, NBA, NFL, soccer)
  • Crypto price outcomes (above/below targets by a set date/time)
• Analogous to Polymarket in the sense of event-based wagering, but explicitly one-to-one and focused on direct P2P settlement rather than pooled markets.
• Early traction: ~100 accounts created around launch day.

Why it was built (origin of the idea)

• Sparked by a Twitter claim that a token ("HYPE") could flip SOL’s market cap. The host wanted to let users “back their opinions” with on-chain, verifiable wagers.
• Initial concept included an AI layer to let users propose wagers in natural language and have the system structure and validate them automatically.

Architecture evolution: from AI-first to data-first

• Initial AI pipeline (paused for now):
  • Users submit natural language prompts.
  • OpenAI parses and extracts the needed parameters.
  • Perplexity performs research/lookups.
  • OpenAI formats the result into a standardized wager.
• Issue: Data integrity was not reliable (misformatted dates/times; risk of incorrect resolution). Not acceptable for real-money settlement.
• Current approach:
  • Sports data via API-Sports (reliable scheduling/results).
  • Crypto market data via CoinGecko WebSockets (live charts embedded per wager).
  • Result: Better accuracy and user experience. AI remains on the roadmap.

Current UX and core flows (walkthrough, verbally described)

• Asset discovery:
  • Right-side listing of CoinGecko’s top-100 tokens by market cap.
  • Global search: any token listed on CoinMarketCap can be searched and used to create a wager.
• Wager creation:
  • For crypto: set above/below target price, define a resolution date/time, stake amount, and create.
  • For sports: choose from daily upcoming games (UFC, NBA, NFL, soccer, etc.), select outcome, define stake.
• Sharing and discovery:
  • Each wager has a shareable “wager card.”
  • One-click “Share to X” pre-fills a post with link and image to drive counterparties if none are immediately online.
  • Share works for both open wagers (to attract takers) and settled wagers (for PnL flex).

Settlement, custody, and fees

• Escrow mechanism:
  • On wager creation, users sign a transaction that is slightly higher than the staked amount due to an escrow account opening cost (the host cited roughly 0.068 SOL additional, as heard; exact figure subject to UI confirmation).
  • Once the wager is resolved and the winner is paid, the temporary escrow account is closed and the opening cost is refunded back to the creator’s wallet.
• Wallet connection and onboarding:
  • Using Privy to streamline wallet connection/auth.
  • Recognized user hesitation to connect existing wallets (e.g., Phantom) to a new platform; exploring an embedded/custodial wallet option where the platform can create a wallet for the user and allow deposits, reducing perceived risk.
• Platform fees:
  • 2% per user per wager (4% total per matched wager).

Referrals and revenue distribution

• Referrals:
  • Four-tier program; top tier at 25% revenue share.
  • Once you reach 25%, it never decreases.
  • Unlimited referees; earnings are not capped.
  • If you onboard a brand-new user, you start at the 25% tier. Tiering is account-wide, not per individual referee.
• Daily platform revenue distribution (20% recycled back to community and token):
  • 8% to native token holders directly.
  • 7% via 100 micro-drops randomly throughout the day.
  • 5% used for buybacks of the native token (community has asked for burn; the team is open to implementing buyback-and-burn).

Competitive positioning and differentiation

• Direct P2P wagering at global scale, not restricted to friend groups.
• Data-backed settlement (API-based) rather than outcome voting among friends, reducing disputes and subjectivity.
• Lightweight social distribution via “Share to X” to bootstrap liquidity and price discovery on open wagers.

Roadmap and planned enhancements

• Market coverage expansion:
  • Boxing (e.g., high-profile Jake Paul fights expected to drive volume).
  • Esports.
  • Potentially stocks (pending user interest and data integrations).
  • New crypto market types, including a “flip” metric (e.g., token A flips token B by market cap).
• Market structure and odds:
  • Pool betting: enable multiple users to take one side against a single counterparty.
  • User-set odds: allow creators to specify odds (e.g., 3:1), enabling whales to “seed” and entice smaller takers.
  • Strategy: undercut traditional bookmakers to drive volume (a suggestion from a listener, which the host endorsed).
• Wager AI (future iteration of the original AI concept):
  • Let users propose any custom, verifiable wager in natural language.
  • System parses, validates data sources, and lists on the spot, provided verification coverage is available.
  • Goal: on-the-spot market creation vs. off-platform proposal/approval (contrast to Polymarket’s submission/approval model).
• Cross-chain expansion:
  • Exploring additional chains like Base and Sui.
  • Ethereum excluded for now due to high gas costs.
• Mobile app:
  • Planned after core web features stabilize.
  • App-based fees will still feed back into the native token distribution to users.

Security, accuracy, and sustainability notes

• Data integrity and verifiable resolution are prioritized (reason for moving to trusted APIs before scaling AI-driven creation).
• Escrow is temporary and funds are programmatically handled; refunds occur on account closure.
• Acknowledgment that the platform is at its “worst it will ever be” (fresh launch) and will improve iteratively with features and polish.

Go-to-market and operations

• Market scope: not limited to memecoin traders; targets anyone in crypto who also enjoys sports—framing a large addressable market.
• Marketing plans:
  • Hiring/onboarding a community manager to drive Spaces, updates, and outreach.
  • Broad presence-building across crypto Twitter and related channels.
• Community engagement:
  • Open line for suggestions and feature requests; the team is receptive and iterating quickly.

Key takeaways and highlights

• Product: A direct P2P wagering platform for sports and crypto with API-based resolution, shareable wager cards, and live charts for crypto markets.
• Traction: ~100 sign-ups on/near launch; early user curiosity is strong.
• Economics: 4% total fee per matched wager; robust referral program; 20% of revenue recycled to token holders/community via distributions, micro-drops, and buyback/burn.
• Differentiation: One-to-one markets, immediate share-to-social growth loops, and plans for flexible odds/pools to undercut bookmakers.
• Roadmap: Boxing/esports/stocks, “flip” markets, Wager AI for natural-language custom markets with verifiable data, cross-chain to Base/Sui, and a mobile app.
• Risk controls: Prioritized data veracity and escrow safety; AI-driven market creation deferred until verification is bulletproof.

Open questions and asks from the host

• Feedback wanted on:
  • Interest in stocks and other new market categories.
  • Appetite for pool betting and user-defined odds.
  • Preferred verification/data sources for custom markets.
  • Wallet onboarding friction and the value of a custodial/embedded wallet option.
• Community can reach out with suggestions; the team is open and responsive.

Closing

• The planned live walkthrough couldn’t proceed, but the host covered the concept, status, and roadmap. No questions were raised live; the team encouraged follow-ups via DMs and future Spaces.