STOCK PICKS FOR THE WEEK

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WOLF
@WOLF_FinancialAug 11, 2025

The Spaces recapped last week’s results (panel +4.22% vs SPX +0.65%, QQQ +1.32%) and crowned Andrew (Roperstine Capital) for a 39.47% gain on MSOS. Market sentiment was framed as mixed breadth with daily rotations and a seasonality soft patch into September. Andrew reiterated his high‑conviction MSOS position, tying upside to a potential U.S. cannabis rescheduling and a gap‑fill toward 6.84. Chris Patel argued for a tactical short in Palantir on valuation/governance and technical froth, and a rebound long in UnitedHealth via leverage, citing 13F value flows, January rate resets, and improving margins. Nick Drendel highlighted extreme long positioning (NAAIM 76% to 96% in a week), weakening follow‑through post earnings, and advocated pressing selective shorts with strict VWAP/5‑DMA risk. The panel flagged CPI/PPI as key catalysts, favored spreads for risk control, and rotated into select themes: China ADR momentum (BABX, TME/FUTU/KWEB; avoid JD), crypto beta (BTCL), and oversold healthcare (UNHG). Additional longs included SPOT, ZETA, and RBLX. The host added shorts in TNA and ADBE, noting divergences vs index highs. The session closed with a full picks roll‑call and a reminder to manage risk into macro data.

Weekly Stock Picks Spaces — Full Recap and Structured Notes

Participants and Roles

  • Host (Wolf Financial; referred to as “Amp” by the panel) — guided results, moderation, and provided two picks.
  • Jordan (co-host) — market sentiment framing, macro calendar, and two picks.
  • Andrew (Roperstine Capital; this week’s champion) — market dashboard and MSOS thesis.
  • Chris Patel — macro/rotation views, Palantir short case, UNH value/defensive setup.
  • Nick Drendel — positioning-driven caution, short setups (speculative leaders), China leaders vs laggards.
  • “Notz/Knots” (Mr. Bull Trade Finder) — cautious trading posture, spreads, ZETA and RBLX long ideas.
  • Stock Sniper (Bitcoin/Stock Sniper) — crypto-linked and HIMS trade via leveraged ETFs.
  • Absent but submitted picks: Michael Nauss; Vegas (I Love Stocks); Gav (Wolf Financial); Sam Solid.

Last Week’s Scorecard (panel vs. indices)

  • Index performance (Tue open → Mon close):
    • S&P 500: +0.65%
    • QQQ: +1.32%
  • Panel composite return: +4.22% (outperformed again)
  • Top contributors:
      1. Andrew (Roperstine Capital): +39.47% on MSOS (winner)
      1. Gav (Wolf Financial): +13.46% combined (tickers stated as PTICR and ROBN)
      1. Michael Nauss: +7.26% on DNN and FDMT
      1. Vegas (I Love Stocks): +7.09% — TSLL +19.78% but Microsoft exposure dragged total
      1. Sam Solid: +6.39% on UNHG and SSK

Market Backdrop and Sentiment (panel synthesis)

  • Breadth and rotation:
    • Andrew: Mixed breadth with daily rotation; headline indices holding up but seasonality weak patch begins in September. Despite hesitancy at the index level, several themes are working (notably MSOS).
    • Nick: Positioning risk elevated — active investor exposure (NAAIM) surged from ~76% to ~96% in a week. Outside megacaps (AAPL, TSLA, GOOGL) cracks are emerging; many earnings gap-ups are sold quickly, with few exceptions (REDDIT, ROBINHOOD). Numerous software/security names hit hard; speculative pockets (crypto plays, low-float AI) are leading — typically late-cycle risk tone.
    • Jordan: NDX printed a fresh ATH while SPX lags; big data week ahead may reset tone.
    • Notz: Frequent gap-ups failing intra-day; approaching with patience, sizing down, and using option spreads.
  • Macro/data calendar:
    • CPI Tue 8:30 a.m. ET, PPI Thu, plus unemployment claims and retail sales. Many plan to wait for prints.
  • Trading posture:
    • Nick favors pressing shorts when positioning is extended and liquidity events are getting sold, but stresses strict risk control (use VWAP and a stop; respect squeezes until the 5-day MA breaks on extended names).

Thematic Deep-Dives

  • Cannabis rescheduling (Andrew’s MSOS thesis):
    • Context: Trump publicly supported rescheduling from Schedule I to III before the election; subsequent reporting suggests a decision may be made with details pending. Andrew notes the Schedule I criterion (“no accepted medical use”) conflicts with 39–40 U.S. states having medical cannabis programs.
    • Industry dynamics: Hemp-derived THC products are widely available, creating regulatory inconsistencies; Andrew argues rescheduling could “level the playing field” for MSOs and improve safety/standardization.
    • Political calculus: High public support (cited Gallup 70%); potential job count tailwind (425k jobs) could show up in official metrics, creating political incentive.
    • Trade setup: MSOS has a visible gap from the post-election capitulation — Andrew targets a gap-fill to ~$6.84 (vs. ~4.70 close on the session discussed), with potential catalysts from rescheduling progress. He’s “full-ported” MSOS and is running this as a position trade (also competing in the U.S. Investing Championship, money manager division).
  • “Irrational exuberance” pockets and Palantir short (Chris Patel):
    • Valuation/quality concerns: ~600x PE; “Rule of 40” achieved via adjustments that exclude SBC; U.S. commercial growth emphasized while international commercial is weakening.
    • Scaling/customer base: ~1,000 customers is small for a large-cap SaaS peer group; potential scaling frictions.
    • Governance/IR optics: CAO resigned in Feb; reduced holdings materially (from >500k to ~50k shares). Management limited Q&A to favorable sell-side analysts; not alleging fraud, but sees selective disclosure culture and lack of transparency.
    • Technicals: RSI overheated (>80 recently); expects mean reversion to the 70s near term.
  • Defensive rotation/value (UNH and managed care):
    • Chris sees healthcare as oversold and at/near decade lows for some names; expects 13F disclosures to reveal value accumulation. Managed care margins should improve in 2025 with benefit cuts and rate resets in January (tracking CVS and Humana playbooks). Managed care’s MLR discipline offers insulation vs. cyclical downturns. Broader macro “cracks” could spur a growth→value rotation over 6–12 months.
  • China equities setup (Nick and Jordan):
    • Leaders: TME (new highs; earnings BMO next day), FUTU, and KWEB (breakout, retest, continuation). JD flagged as a laggard (below 20/50/200-day MAs; avoid until back above 200-day).
    • Policy noise: Host referenced a U.S. EO creating a 90-day pause (China-related) and chatter about potential 15% export tax affecting NVDA/AMD shipments. Nick stayed charts-first and avoided macro calls.
  • Crypto/BTC beta (Stock Sniper):
    • Thesis: A “clear directive” to create a strategic U.S. Bitcoin reserve (as reported in headlines he follows) is seen as a bullish structural catalyst; aiming to be early via 2x BTC product.

Full Picks Roster (bullish/bearish stance and rationale)

  • Andrew (Roperstine Capital)

    • Long: MSOS (2x version noted in his remarks). Rationale: Rescheduling catalysts; gap-fill setup to ~$6.84; leadership within current market themes; position trade through year-end.

  • Nick Drendel

    • Short: NEGG — ran from ~$4 to ~$80; now gapped down and weak. Strategy: Wait for a 5-day MA break and use today’s low/5-DMA for entry; don’t fight fresh gaps up; respect squeezes.
    • Short: SLDP — rallied ~$1→$4; earnings pop failed to make new highs; inside day and closed near LOD. Entry through LOD/5-DMA with same 5-day discipline.

  • Michael Nauss (absent; submitted)

    • Long: INOD
    • Long: EPR

  • Chris Patel

    • Short (2x): PLTZ — 2x inverse/short Palantir. Rationale: Valuation, adjusted metrics reliance, international weakness, insider optics, selective IR, overbought technicals.
    • Long (2x): UNHG — 2x long UnitedHealth Group. Rationale: Oversold sector; 13F value buying; margin improvement via 2025 resets/benefit cuts; defensive positioning amid macro softening; MLR discipline.

  • Jordan (co-host)

    • Long (2x): BABX — leveraged Alibaba. Rationale: On Prospero short-term bull list; internals supportive; consolidation could break up.
    • Long: SPOT — filled the post-earnings gap and is back-testing; potential continuation back toward prior highs.

  • Vegas (I Love Stocks; absent; submitted)

    • Long: RGTI (earnings play)
    • Long: TSLL (leveraged Tesla)

  • Stock Sniper

    • Long (2x): BTCL — T-Rex 2x Bitcoin ETF. Rationale: Anticipated policy support via strategic BTC reserve headline.
    • Long (2x): HIMZ — 2x long HIMS (Defiance). Rationale: Multiple successful defenses of $50; consolidation showing strong support; acknowledges resistance in $60–62 area; framing as a high-variance “potshot” for the contest.

  • Gav (Wolf Financial; absent; submitted)

    • Long: NBIS
    • Long: BMNR
    • Note: Host remarked, “We’ll see if that Ethereum can keep going,” suggesting these may be crypto/ETH-beta themed products.

  • Notz/Knots (Mr. Bull Trade Finder)

    • Long: ZETA — three-day dip into 200-day SMA ($18 area); initiated long calls intra-space.
    • Long: RBLX — momentum carry; referenced the 9 EMA on the daily as a guide.

  • Host (Amp)

    • Short: TNA — small-cap (IWM) leveraged bull. Rationale: IWM chart lagging with risk of a re-test of 50/200-day MAs; macro data may pressure small caps.
    • Short: ADBE — persistent relative weakness (at/near April lows) while market prints highs; repeated selling; earnings still weeks out → risk of further de-risking and a potential break of ~$330–332 (with room toward 2022 lows if support fails).

Additional Observations and Technical Levels Mentioned

  • MSOS: Closing near ~$4.70; gap-fill target ~$6.84 (Andrew).
  • Positioning: NAAIM exposure index jump 76%→96% in one week (Nick) — historically fosters sell-the-news dynamics and volatility.
  • Software/security cohort: Broad drawdowns over prior two weeks (Nick).
  • Speculative leadership: Crypto-linked and low-float AI names driving flows (Nick) — typically late-stage tone.
  • China: TME leadership; FUTU/KWEB constructive; JD avoided until above 200-DMA (Nick).

Near-Term Catalysts and Watch Items

  • Macro
    • CPI (Tue, 8:30 a.m. ET)
    • PPI (Thu)
    • Unemployment claims, retail sales
  • Earnings/events called out
    • TME (BMO next day)
    • RGTI (Vegas framing as earnings play)
    • NVIDIA earnings “lurking” down the road (host)
  • Policy/Geopolitics
    • Cannabis rescheduling news flow (MSOS-sensitive)
    • China policy headlines (90-day pause EO referenced; chatter on export taxes for certain semis)
    • Bitcoin policy chatter (strategic reserve directive as cited by Sniper)

Key Risks and Risk Management Notes

  • Elevated long exposure increases vulnerability to downside on “good” data (sell-the-news) or hot prints.
  • Shorting extended leaders requires strict discipline: use VWAP and 5-DMA breaks; respect squeezes (Nick).
  • Leveraged/inverse ETFs amplify both gains and losses; several picks this week use 2x products.
  • Sector dispersion high: megacaps vs. software/security decoupling; rotation can whipsaw.

Highlights and Takeaways

  • Panel again outperformed indices last week (+4.22% vs. SPX +0.65%, QQQ +1.32%), powered by thematic conviction (MSOS strength).
  • Sentiment is bifurcated: bulls cite working themes (cannabis, selected China, defensives) while bears warn on stretched positioning, weak follow-through in most earnings movers, and speculative leadership at the margins.
  • This week skews tactically cautious into CPI/PPI; several participants favor either defensive/value rotation (UNH) or tactical shorts in extended speculative names (NEGG, SLDP, PLTR via PLTZ).
  • Stock- and theme-specific momentum remains: China leaders (TME/FUTU/KWEB), crypto beta (BTCL), and idiosyncratic setups (SPOT gap-fill, ZETA at 200-DMA, TSLL continuation).